Offshore
/ S&P500 closes at all-time high, Nasdaq still 6% off highs
/ US Personal Spending fell 1.0% in February, slightly more than expected, but January spending was revised upward by a full percentage point to 3.4%.
/ Ever Given remains stuck in Suez Canal
/ Intel to build new silicon chip fab plants for $20bn
/ Tencent results
/ WeWork to go public, via a Spac, with $9bn valuation
Local
/ CPI 2.9% for Feb and MPC no change
/ Magda Wierzycka quits as Sygnia CEO
/ AdvTech results
/ Old Mutual results
/ Remgro results overshadowed by 40% discount to NAV
/ Goldman analysts say go long on Russia, South Africa stocks
Simon Shares
- AdvTech* (JSE code: ADH) solid results in a tough market.
- Vivo Energy (JSE code: VVO) issued an update on Moroccan industry review and seems it's back to square one.
- Resilient (JSE code: RES) results not the horror show expected.
- Aveng (JSE code: AEG) wants to do another rights issue, again at 1.5c and raise R100m.
- Tencent solid results.
- Ever Given gets stuck in the Suez Canal.
- February local CPI at 2.9%.
Upcoming events;
- 15 April ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing
Why all the panic?
A small rise in US ten-year treasury yields and a little inflation and suddenly it is the end fo the world for markets.
Inflation is likely to move higher in the US as the stimulus money gets spent. This is different from the stimulus after 2008/9, which went to banks who hoarded it and stuck it into markets. This time money goes directly to consumers who'll send the money.
But the Federal Reserve is happy that structural inflation is not returning and a little inflation in the system isn't the end of the world.
But to listen to many experts here comes hyperinflation and the end of the world as high inflation = high rates and as such money moves into income funds rather than equity.
Further if one digs into Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) government spending is not the end of the world, certainly for the US government. Here's a fun one, to deal with inflation, raise taxes? In fact have an automatic process that removes congress, if inflation heads above say 3%, taxes go up 4%. Above 5% taxes increase 8% and so on.
But back to the panic, stop. Markets never go in a straight line and suddenly getting all bearish because of some selling is going to make sleeping ever again impossible.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Simon Shares
- Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) delivered really strong results for the six months ending December.
Shoprite daily chart[/caption]Purple* (JSE code: PPE) is up some 20% in the last ten days. A buyer has arrived and thanks to low liquidity they're moving the price.
- Good update from AdVTech* (JSE code: ADH) and results fro Stadio (JSE code: SDO) while Curro (JSE code: COH) was modest. Seems tertiary education was the winner and schools are under pressure but longer-term a sector I like.
- Astral (JSE code: ARL) update.
- TSA travel numbers are hitting their highest levels since lockdown started. Still only about half what they were before lockdown but the US is vaccinating and opening up. This while Europe looks to be starting the third wave and locally nobody will give/sell us any vaccines. So globally this re-opening is going to be very lumpy with the US and UK seemingly winners in the vaccine front (ironic after they were losers on the pandemic front).
- Sun International (JSE code: SUI) nothing to write home about. Lots of chatter about the re-opening trade with City Lodge (JSE code: CLH) up about a third in March. But with at least one more (and maybe even two more) Covid-19 surges and resultant lockdown restrictions I am staying cautious for now.
- The March 16-17 FOMC statement comes out between my recording and you listening. No rate change so it's all about the language. Even in the face of a strong economy are they still prepared to do whatever it takes and leave rates low into 2023?
Upcoming events;
- 15 April ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing
Small caps for the win
MidCap index is up about 10% so far in 2021, nice and pretty much exactly what thee Top40 has done. Of course, the Resi10 has done almost 20%, but the winner, small caps up some 20%.
The property index has returned single digits in 2021 so far, but technically it is looking ready to break higher.
We also now have all the large bank results and they were okay. The index is up some 5% and looking tired. There is value here but not sure there is any need to rush.
Property index, daily chart[/caption]
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Offshore
/ $1.9trillion stimulus bill signed by Biden and on route
/ Tencent on notice as China cracks down on fintech players
/ The tech-heavy Nasdaq has underperformed the Dow for four straight weeks — a first since 2016
/ Friday 1,357,111 people were screened at U.S. airports, marking the highest number of travellers since the pandemic began.
/ U.S. 10 Year Treasury hits 1.625
/ Huawei listed anew as a threat to US national security
Local
/ GDP for 2020 -7%
/ SA records first annual surplus in 2020 (last was 2002)
/ Woolies sells Elizabeth Street Property
/ MTN results (dividend cancelled) and Ambition 2025
/ AfroCentric results
/ Aspen results see more debt slashed
Simon Shares
- Ascendis (JSE code: ASC) lenders are flexing their muscle. Back in February L1 Health, Blantyre bought enough debt to be able to block any asset sales and with over R7billion in debt Ascendis desperately needs to sell their European crown jewels. There is now a forbearance agreement in place until the end of April by when the company needs to have sorted out their debt. A rights issue is not an option at current prices so a debt for asset swap with the lenders? This will maybe resolve the debt issue, but then what does that leave Ascendis?
- Renergen* (JSE code: REN) find a bunch more gas they did not expect to find.
- Growthpoint (JSE code: GRT) office vacancies at 18%. Lots of concern about malls as we're over traded and online shopping. The latter is a very long-term issue, the former will see some die. But office is the real concern.
- Solid AfroCentric (JSE code: ACT) results. Everybody (well many) love Discovery* (JSE code: DSY) yet here is a pure health stock with great potential, cheap valuation and they consider NHI to actually be something that would further benefit the company.
Very good Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) results. Debt is going faster than expected, business is solid and the anon bidder has exited the building leaving only the one stuck in Australia. They should be able to easily do 30c HEPS for the full year putting then on a forward PE of under 10x. This set of results they only paid out half of HEPS as a dividend, but this should increase from next financial year as debt becomes way smaller. - MTN (JSE code: MTN) finally pricing as a utility.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Offshore
/ NFP added 379k jobs (large beat) and US unemployment 6.2% (at this pace it’ll take until April 2023 to get back to where we were in February 2020)
/ $1.9trillion stimulus bill approved by Senate
/ China sets 6% 2021 GDP target
/ Germany charges Steinhoff execs
/ UK taxes going up to highest in 50 years
/ Nasdaq is red year-to-date
Local
/ One year of Covid, ZAR 40c weaker, Top40 +20% (both from Jan20 levels)
/ Harmony out of Top40 and Resi10, replaced by Glencore
/ Rhodes Food update “..sales started recovering in January and February 2021…” after TigerBrands said January was poor?
/ Firstrand results
/ Spur results
/ Treasury expected to be another R30billion ahead on tax collections
Simon Shares
- A great research report on Blue Gem covering Renergen (JSE code: REN). What I really like about the report is that Keith shows you all his workings so you can make your own call on his working and decide.
- Spur (JSE code: SUR) were a horror show, no surprise it was the six months to end December with all the various lockdown levels. Two things struck me. They're positioning themselves well for the post-pandemic dining life, dark kitchens, exploring drive-through were feasible. But the biggie was how the company has changed in the last decade or so. It used to be Spur with a little pizza and sushi. But it really is now a collection of brands across different eating experiences and price points. My concern in the short term is a third and fourth wave. We can see as lockdown and alcohol bans get stricter their traffic decreases markedly and I am pretty sure that the rest of 2021 will see at least another two waves of the pandemic with the resulting harder lockdowns.
- Two awesome points from Nerina Visser in an interview I did with her yesterday on MoneywebNOW. Firstly she comments about the saving of dividend tax within a tax-free account. I have run the numbers and over a very long-term that saving is actually more than what one saves on capital gains tax. Secondly, what if you don't have the R36k lump sum to invest? Well, do you have some discretionary ETFs? If yes, sell them, move them into your tax-free account and then continue buying the ETF outside of the tax-free every month for the rest of the year. You get the tax-free benefit from day one.
Upcoming events;
- Weekly, Wednesday at 5.30pm ~ Follow the Trader
- 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader
It's a bull market
[caption id="attachment_24772" align="aligncenter" width="888"]
Top40 weekly chart[/caption]
I was chatting with some friends from around the world about markets. I say it's a bull market, especially locally. They all had a dozen different, and solid, reasons why I was wrong. But they miss one very important point - price.
The simple truth is that markets the world over are at all-time highs and heading higher. We can kick and scream all we want, but price is the truth and the price is heading higher.
Deciding that it is all crazy and heading to cash, or worse taking short positions is a fool's game.
Sure one day the market will peak and somebody will have that Tweet where they called it. But that's not because they're super smart, but because if you call something often enough eventually you'll be right.
Bull markets never feel 100% comfortable, that's the nature of the best. There is always a reason to be sceptical, that's the nature of the beast. But stop stressing and enjoy the ride, that's what bulls are for.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Offshore
/ US Durable Goods Orders Surge In January To Pre-COVID Highs
/ FB to pay Australian media
/ Latest Warren Buffet letter
/ Warren Buffett's $10 billion mistake: Precision Castparts
/ House passes $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill, sends it to Senate
/ Opec+ meets on Thursday
Local
/ Budget
/ Sasol results (no rights issue)
/ TymeBank gets R1.6bn
/ Goldfields gets go-ahead to build 40MW solar plant at South Deep Mine
/ Implats results and dividend
/ Woolies results
Budget 2021 with AJM Tax
I was again invited to moderate the AJM Tax post-budget panel with three excellent guests;
- Pieter Janse van Rensburg – AJM Tax
- Daniel Silke - Political Futures Consulting
- Adriaan Giessing – Seed Investments
You can download the AJM Rax budget highlight booklet here.
Upcoming events;
- Weekly, Wednesday at 5.30pm ~ Follow the Trader
- 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Offshore
/ Australia fight with Google and Facebook
/ Uber loses appeal in UK, drivers are workers not independent contractors
/ Former Bank of England Governor Carney joins board of digital payments company Stripe
/ US return to Paris Agreement
/ US jobless claims up to four-week high
/ Gold under pressure as it trades at lowest levels since June
Local
/ Sibanye Stillwater results
/ Truworths results
/ BHP results and monster dividend
/ Rand at 14.50
/ Two interesting update titbits; Tigerbrands worried about January sales and Dis-Chem sees connivance malls much better than malls, but malls returning to normal.
/ Value Group delisting
Simon Shares
Interesting titbit from TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) update "It is too early to conclude whether the lower consumer demand levels evident in the month of January reflect an even more challenging environment than what was experienced over the past year."
Upcoming events;
- Weekly, Wednesday at 5.30pm ~ Follow the Trader
- 18 February ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing
- 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader
BHP* (JSE code: BHP) results were good, the cash flow was excellent with the dividend up 55% and payout ratio 85%.
This is the benefit of commodity prices at higher levels but also due to low debt levels an almost zero capex requirements from most commodity miners.
This raises three questions;
Are we in a commodity supercycle?
I think not, sure prices are at best levels in about five years. But that's off a low base rather than a super cycle. sure demand has picked up and global infrastructure spend is rising in response to the pandemic. But we don't have China growing at almost 10% a year sucking in almost all of the world's commodities as we did back in the early 2000s.
Last time we ha a commodity supercycle it died the day after a global bank did a 100-page report on how it would last another decade.
Will commodity prices go higher?
They can but mostly I think they won't. Platinum could hit US$2,000 but for the rest our best bet is they stay around current levels. Oil, who knows. Will the frackers return in mass with higher prices? Demand will certainly continue to increase as we get out of the pandemic, but how long can Opec+ keep their collective foot on the production brake pedal? I think not long as they'll need the money.
How long will it last?
The elevated prices can probably last 3-5 years at best and this will see cash flows at high levels, especially as debt gets paid own. But the miners need to find new mines to mine or they run out of product to sell (as we're seeing with Pan African Resources* (JSE code: PAN) and their new mines / operations. So at some point, we'll start seeing green and brownfield capex projects coming back and that'll need some cash so dividends will start to drop.
My big fear is mega deals. These always destroy value albeit the miners look at them as an easy way to increased supply for themselves. If a stock I hold gets an offer, I'll take the money and run. If a stock I own makes an offer, I'll take the money and run.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Offshore
/ Disney results all about Disney+
/ Tesla puts $1.5billion into Bitcoin
/ Janet Yellen warns of ‘explosion of risk’ from cryptocurrency markets
/ Bumble IPO with 60% gain on the first day
/ Platinum above $1,200 for first tine in six years
/ Freeze Sends Gas Soaring to $600
Local
/ More small-cap updates surprise to upside; Trellidor & Metrofile
/ Itatile results
/ ARB Holdings results, solid cash generation
/ Rand turned sixty yesterday
/ Cartrack coming back to earth after hitting 9000c
/ Steinhoff maybe resolving their legal woes
/ SARS collections ahead by R100billion
Simon Shares
- Bitcoin* hits US$48,000 as Tesla declares they put US$1.5billion into the crypto.
- Platinum finally on the move and above US$1,200 for the first time since 2015.
[caption id="attachment_24687" align="aligncenter" width="888"]
Platinum weekly chart[/caption]
- Sibanye Stillwater* (JSE code: SSW) best illustrates the boom in mining profits. In 2019 they made R62million now 2020 they expect almost R30billion and over 1000c HEPS. Could we see a 500c dividend?
- Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) very solid update and the stock has recovered from their 2019 wobble. There is still two potential buyers, one stuck in Australia, truthfully, I would rather they remain potential and I will hold the stock.
Upcoming events;
- Weekly on Wednesday ~ Follow the Trader
- 18 February ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing
- 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader
Should I sell the bounce?
Depends why you bought the stock.
- A long-term investment? No, then you keep it and focus on fundamentals rather than price.
- A quick trade to make a few bucks. Then absolutely sell the bounce, you won't get the top price (well maybe you'll get lucky) and as we saw with Telkom (JSE code: TKG) the bounce just keeps on bouncing. So watch and wait and sell on weakness after the bounce That may be immediate or may take a few days or a week.
Waiting for the weakness is a skill you'll learn, slowly over time.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Offshore
/ Nasdaq & S&P500 close Friday at all-time highs
/ Alphabet & Amazon results
/ US unemployment drops to 6.%
/ Jeff Bezos to step up to the executive chair, no longer CEO
/ Chinese short video company Kuaishou rose nearly 200% at the open on its debut in Hong Kong.
Local
/ Ford investment of R15.8-billion into SA
/ Updates; Distell & Motus
/ Level 3 lite
/ Sibanye Stillwater update, R62million profit to almost R30billion
/ Load shedding
Simon Shares
- GameStop closed at US$90 on Tuesday.
- Jeff Bezos to step down as Amazon CEO.
- Apple knockout results.
- Ford to spend R15.8billion on local plant upgrade.
Upcoming events;
- Weekly (Wednesday at 5.30pm) ~ Follow the Trader
- 18 February ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing
Booming SA Inc. consumers?
We're seeing decent updates from local retailers so far this year, which is odd. Now let's be clear, decent not knock it out the park.
- Distell (JSE code: DGH) lost 41 days of sales in the second half of 2020 yet expects HEPS to be + 8.6% - +13.6%.
- Motus (JSE code: MTH) expect HEPS to be 0% - 5% higher, sent the stock up some 20% in two days.
A few possible reasons;
- Lockdown so we have money to spend
- Working from home saving on transport
- Social grants increased
36One calculate some R100bn extra from social grants but also people taking money out of pension schemes & retrenchment packages. The risk here is that this is temporary, which is certainly the 36One fear.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Offshore
/ GameStop
/ Results; Apple & Tesla
/ Tencent listing Kuaishou (TikTok competitor) this week
/ US 4th quarter GDP at 4%
/ Davos online
Local
/ IMF downgrades SA GDP 2021/2 growth forecast
/ Huge offers script to buyout AdaptIT
/ Anglo stable of updates (AGL, AMS & KIO)
/ Clicks update and closing Musica
/ Solid Sasol update
/ Johnson & Johnson vaccine, Aspen to produce 300m a year
Upcoming events;
- 18 February ~ JSE Power Hour: ETFs and tax-free investing
GameStop perfect craziness
Three things came together to push this stock up +20x in a week;
- Massive short position
- Option buying
- Markets love stories
Simon dissects the three explains how it all played out and why it is perfectly legal.
[caption id="attachment_24640" align="aligncenter" width="678"]
GameStop daily chart[/caption]
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Offshore
/ Netflix results
/ Weak IBM results
/ Tesla results this week
/ US GDP (4th quarter)
/ Federal Reserve rate statement on Thursday
/ Procter & Gamble solid results & increasing buy backs by $2billion to $18billion
Local
/ Chris Griffith Kumba ==> Anglo Plat ==> now Goldfields
/ BAW selling motor division for R947m
/ MPC no surprise but vote was 3-2, with 2 for a hike.
/ Redefine to pass on 2020 dividend
/ Strong Richemont update
Simon Shares
- Trading updates from Truworths (JSE code: TRU) and Foschini (JSE code: TFG) both saw sales decrease for the period ending both saw sales down. But not down as much as expected and hence the stocks went wild. Truworths was up some 25% in two days. More than anything this is because expectations were dire. That said I'm not convinced, the lockdown was increased post the period end and as mentioned, sales and HEPS are expected to be down. We'll get more retail updates and over the following two weeks, with Pick n Pay the exception - they don't issues sales trading updates.
- On Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK), they announced that after eight-years CEO Richard Brasher will be stepping down after a solid turn around in the company.
- Local CPI came in at 3.1% for December leaving 2020 at 3.3%, the lowest since 2004 (1.4%) and 1969 (3.0%). The MPC will announce he repo rate Thursday, no change expected and with growth under pressure (load shedding, new lockdowns and late vaccine) I don't any increases in 2021
It's all lies
All of it. Politicians, corporates, marketers. The whole lot. So we need to be extra cautious whenever we hear anything an ask the questions. Ask why they say that? Ask the likelihood of it being provable and how the lie benefits them? Ask what's missing, and why is it missing?
Let's be clear, Trump has emboldened liars like nobody before him. But this is not new. Politicians lie all the time, most promising things that they're unable or worse, unwilling, to actually deliver on. But we've entered a new level whereby when lies are challenged they are deflected not with truth but more lies or the truth is called 'fake news'.
For investors, we also have a bunch of lying happening.
My favourite trick is that before I read a set of results I head to the previous one or two sets and maybe even an annual report and read their forward-looking statement and review of the period. This quickly gives you a sense of which CEOs are honest and which are just fluffing it until their next bonus.
Accounts are themselves not directly lies, but they're also not 100% truth. There are assumptions made at many turns in a set of results.
- Some like Steinhoff we now know were all lies and I avoided that because of the complexity and that's an important point.
- Tongaat was a hard one to spot, but the red flag (in hindsight but useful for the future) is when the company gets to 'value' assets.
- African Bank we could spot because earnings were increasing but dividends were not. So no cash was being made from the higher earnings.
Common amongst all three? Very strong CEO who ruled with an iron fist.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Offshore
/ Biden starts Wednesday, already has $1.9trillion stimulus plan
/ Japanese market at 3-decade highs
/ Chinese GDP +2.3% for 2020
/ Rhodium above $20k
/ US won’t ban investing into Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu
/ JPMorgan results knock it out of the park
Local
/ Brasher exits Pick n Pay
/ Murray & Roberts OZ contract
/ Truworths trading update
/ J&J vaccine details expected this week, good news for Aspen
/ Load shedding returns
/ MPC on Thursday
2021 predictions show
Every year Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown do a predictions show. Three wild and woolly predictions for the markets followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead.
Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year's predictions and you’ll find the 2020 predictions show here.
The 2021 predictions are (listen for reasoning);
- Not more than 10% of SA population (6million) vaccinated during 2021
- Gold close 2021 +$2k
- Ford & GM out preform Tesla
- Top40 ~ green
- ZAR ~ stronger
- Resi10 in $ will beat Nasdaq
- US ten year real yield (less inflation) will be negative
- Eastern Cape house price inflation will beat Gauteng
- Top40 ~ green
- ZAR ~ stronger
- Russel 2000 beats S&P500
- Resi10 beats Fini15 & Indi25
- No US or ZA rate increases this year
- Top40 ~ green
- ZAR ~ stronger
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Offshore
/ Tech wild year
/ Oil goes negative
/ Gold breaks $2,000
/ Brexit
/ Tesla
Local
/ Sasol
/ Top40 green for the year & just off all-time highs
/ Even the Rand recovered most of the losses and trades better than 5 years ago
/ Budget deficit
/ Lots of business rescue, but less than I expected
Simon Shares
- Trellidor* (JSE code: TRL), I've been buying. We've seen DIY stocks doing well and small SA Inc shares surprise to the upside and I think this could be one of them. Interim is end December so an update should arrive mid-February.
- Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) results were really good. This stock was very expensive at listing and above 2400c in 2016 it was crazy. But price came down and earnings increased so now looking fairly priced and very well positioned in the low cost and passive space with even trading contributing around 25% to revenue.
- I received an email about being charged massive fees for a trade that happened over multiple days. This is not new and is how the JSE charges. Trades on one day, same stock and all buys or sells are bulked together and charged as one trade. But trades in separate days are each charged as a new trade and so the brokerage minimums hit and can hit hard, very hard. The way to avoid is when you get that SMS for first trade to adjust the price to ensure full quantity or do an at market trade.
- Next show will be 14 January; predictions with Marc Ashton, Keith Mclachlan and myself. We look back at the previous years and make new bold ones.
- Position your portfolio for 2021
2020 finished n klaar
I've lived a lot of years but no matter how many, none like this one. What is has done is force us to reflect on things. Frankly to reflect on pretty all things as everything got turned upside-down.
As an example, I 'had' to live in Johannesburg because of my TV work. Well, now we know that isn't the case as I have been doing weekly TV shows from my lounge since March. In the future, I continue doing TV work from my lounge, and that the lounge could be anywhere with high-speed Internet.
I also remember hard lockdown surrounded by all my 'things'. They did not make my life beautiful, I missed people and experiences.
I also remember my portfolio crashing and not even checking how bad it was. Markets recover, sure this recovery was swifter than anything I have seen before and made no sense. But markets often don't make sense and fighting them is fruitless.
It also gave us a real-time chance to measure a number of important investment considerations.
- How robust were the stocks you held?
- How diverse was your portfolio?
- Did you react accordingly?
- I sold some much-loved stocks that I thought would be in serious trouble and even bought a gold miner for the first time ever.
- Did you panic?
I did not get everything right, that truthfully is never the aim. But I also did not sit stuck like a deer in the headlights.
Point being, 2020 has been wild and we should reflect, reflect lots on our lives and or portfolios. If we do that right then we'll be stronger in the future.
Lastly, watch out for the push back. Lots of incentives to return to how it was, but is that what you want? Did you like the old way or do you see a new improved way or a blend? Decide and then make it happen.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Offshore
/ US$908billion stimulus plan proposed for the US
/ US markets at new highs
/ Salesforce buying Slack for US$27.7billion
/ Pfizer vaccine starts being administered this week in the UK
/ Oil moving higher
/ Gold bounces need to get above US$1,860
Local
/ Sasol update, likely rights issue will be smaller
/ Locusts in NC, WC & FS and returning rains
/ Barloworld results (and price surge)
/ Vukile benefiting from non-metro malls
/ Top40 closes Friday at third-highest level ever
/ Comair returns to the skies but not the market
Simon Shares
- Really strong November for stocks. France and Italy had their best months ever, S&P500 +11% and JSE +10%.
- The Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine has been approved for use in the UK starting next week. Limited supplies so front line workers and old people first. But this is good news and suggests that the news for 2021 will be more about rolling out of the vaccine albeit probably also lots of second and third waves. But there is a light at the end of the tunnel and it's not a train.
Upcoming events;
- 03 December ~ JSE Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2021
- Bytes UK (JSE code: BYI) JSE listing is confirmed for next Thursday.
- Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) very strong results for the year ending August 2020.
- Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) issue a strong trading update, HEPS expected 62%-67% stronger, results due on Tuesday.
- ASISA report record inflows into CIS in SA in Q3 while Q2 saw R88billion added as markets were collapsing. Peeps are smart.
- Decent bounce in gold, but still looking weak even as it moves above the 200-day MA. I hold Pan African* (JSE code: PAN) and continue to hold. The position is small and really is insurance for just in case. 2020 has been wild and I not placing bets in 2021 just yet.
- Aveng (JSE code: AEG) doing rights issue at 1.5c that will double the number of shares to 40billion! They'll then do a consolidation and always be short a consolidation.
- Sasol (JSE code: SOL) seems to have cleaned up much of the mess and old enough assets to make a rights issue below the upper US$2billion level. Coupled with oil looking like it may go higher is good news for the share.
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