Simon Shares

• Episode #500. Huge thanks to all, I go into some background about the show. Where and how it started, lessons learnt and more.
• Stage 6, the Rand lost 30c.
• Sun International* (JSE code: SUI) update for five months to 31 May 2022 shows they are nearly back at pre-pandemic revenue and this while we still had some restrictions and fewer international travellers.
• Naspers (JSE code: NPN) / Prosus (JSE code: PRX) results. Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700) is 125% of profits. The other businesses are all loss-making and in tough markets. They plan to sell down Tencent and buy back Prosus shares, but the discount to NAV remains around 50%, even after a massive move on the announcement.
• Grindrod (JSE code: GND) good update and share has been flying. This remains a very cyclical business and right now the cycle is paying off.
• Invicta (JSE code: IVT) saw strong results albeit some accounting points improved them a bunch.
• JSE (JSE code: JSE) trading update is surprisingly strong with HEPS expected +24%-32% for six months ending June.

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares

• Thungela (JSE code: TGA). Coal prices doing great, production is good but rail is the problem but HEPS is expected at 5800c. If we double for the full year we can expect ±R116 and a dividend of ±R100?
• Stor-Age* (JSE code: SSS) results are not exciting but steady.
• Omnia (JSE code: OMN) results were really strong, another special dividend and good future prospects.
• Orion Minerals (JSE code: ORN) raises money to get their Prieska up and running. Expected to take some 19 months.
• Amazon prime coming to South Africa next year. It will seriously challenge Takealot, owned by Naspers (JSE code: NPN)).
• City Lodge* (JSE code: CLH) trading update show them cash flow positive with occupancies back in profit.

* I hold ungeared positions.

Crypto in trouble

Not an inflation hedge nor a store of value. Just another risk asset. The problem is as QE ends and rates rise, will it still see a strong inflow of money? I think not.

It's not the end crypto, but new highs could be some way off.

Simon Shares

• US May inflation, 8.6%. Federal Reserve announced rates last night and surely it was 0.75% for the first time in 28 years?
• Either we have continued high inflation or a recession, maybe even both?
• Time for a Paul Volcker and do a 1% raise?
• It's ugly, Nasdaq and S&P500 both closed at lows for 2022 and are both are now in a bear market. S&P500 draw down at close 13Jun22
• And failing a real test or liquidity and exchanges halt withdrawals.

Simon Shares

• Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) results and a forward dividend of maybe as high as 10%.
• Local GDP at 1.9% for Q1 2022. The economy has now recovered to its pre-pandemic levels.
• Consumer cracking? I interviewed Evan Walker 36One Asset Management.
• Inverse ETFs that go up as the market falls.

Upcoming events;

[events_list limit="3"]

ddd

Are Robinhood's troubles Purple concerns?

[caption id="attachment_34522" align="aligncenter" width="761"] Robinhood since listing vs. Purple Group[/caption]

Simon Shares

• The good news is the US had a green week last week, for the first time in 8 weeks
• Goldfields (JSE code: GFI) is down on news it paying a chunky 33.8% premium to acquire Canadian Yamana Gold in an all-share deal
• We finally got the petrol price increase and the 150c fuel levy reduction remains in force, for now.
• German inflation hits 7.9% for May. Highest since the 1950s. EU inflation for May 8.1%, the highest ever.
• EU agrees on a partial ban on Russian oil imports
• Monthly dividends in a JSE equity portfolio
• Offshore ETFs paying monthly dividends

Demand destruction in commodities

There comes a point at which a commodities price is simply too high and the price itself reduces demand. Depending on the commodity high prices often need to be high for protracted periods of time.