Now for the tenth year in a row, we kick off the new year with a predictions show.
Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year’s predictions and you’ll find the 2021 predictions show here.
On the 20th September 2021 Chinese property developer missed interest payments on some US$300billion of debt and this spooked markets into a selloff. But three months later nobody cares. What's the background sorry and why does nobody care?
After clogging up the Suez Canal for six days back in March 2021 and halting much of the worlds shipping trade, what happened to Ever Given?
/ Strong year of returns globally, CAC40 (France) top index
/ US inflation, not transitory
/ US unemployment looking decent
/ China crackdown
/ Commodities mostly a soft year, the exception is oil
/ Supply chain chaos
/ Good year for local markets
/ Delisitng galore
/ US Labor Nov Nonfarm Payrolls +210K; Consensus +573K, unemployment improved to 4.2%. Fed's target for 'maximum employment' is for unemployment rate of 4.5%.
/ Didi leaving NYSE
/ Google will no longer require workers to return to the office on Jan. 10, delaying the return indefinitely.
/ Dorsey leaves Twitter
/ OPEC+ agrees to January production hikes
/ Implats comes for RBPlats
/ Capital Appreciation results
/ Tharisa results
/ Bidcorp updates
/ Murray & Roberts update
— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) November 29, 2021
/ Powell second term as Fed chair
/ Fed's Bostic says he remains open to faster taper and one or two rate hikes in 2022
/ Online Black Friday sales in the US fell according to data from Adobe Analytics ($8.9bn vs. $9bn)
/ Opec+ meeting this week, production likely to remain unchanged
/ Turkish lira losses 20%
/ New variant crashes markets and leisure stocks (everything)
/ Good Invicta results, but no dividend
/ Good PPC results
/ Brait apital raise via convertiable bond
/ Hospital stock results; Life Healthcare & Netcare
/ Banking stocks
— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) November 23, 2021
— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) November 24, 2021
[caption id="attachment_31691" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Top40 daily[/caption]
/ US inflation, 6.2%. Core inflation highest since 1991.
/ Johnson & Johnson announced plans to split its company into two, separating its consumer health division from its pharmaceutical and healthcare businesses.
/ Elon Musk selling Tesla shares, some planned n September. Rest thanks to the Twitter poll.
/ Singles day in China, muted (+8.5%) but still huge, Alibaba $84.5billion
/ Tencent results. Slowing in all areas. Common prosperity is visible in the results.
/ MTBPS, not much happening - as expected.
/ Vodacom buying Vodafone Egypt, nice deal and adds a strong growth region.
/ Purple Group results, really top class and much better than I expected. 737k funded accounts.
/ Sappi results, doing well as dissolving pulp prices boom. But energy costs hurting.
/ Raubex results strong with a really good pipeline and well positioned for infrastructure
/ Northam scopes Implats and buys 33% of RBPlats
[caption id="attachment_31661" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Purple Group daily chart[/caption]
/ US tapering begins
/ Strong US jobs data
/ US passes $1trillion infrastructure bill
/ Bank of England leaves rates unchanged
/ Strong Pfizer results
/ Elon Musk asks Twitter if he should sell 10% of his Tesla shares, and pay tax
/ Mini budget this week
/ Renergen reserves
/ Dis-Chem results
/ MTN update
/ Purple Group update
/ Petrol increase
US$8.5billion from France, Germany, the UK and the US governments, as well as the EU, to support a just transition to a low carbon economy.
/ Evergrande has its suspension lifted and makes an interest payment
/ Oil remaining stubbornly high
/ Inflation fears, time for gold?
/ Paypal maybe buying Pinterest for US$45billion
/ Netflix results, still growing albeit north America very slowly
/ Facebook getting a new name as the future is the metaverse
/ Local CPI 5% for September
/ Pick n Pay results
/ Excellent results from Combined Motor Holdings
/ Clicks results
/ New Satrix All Share ETF listing in November
/ Renergen launches a helium token
South Africa inflation rose to 5% in September. Food inflation is 7%, electricity 14%, and fuel almost 20%, with a large petrol price increase expected in November. These increases are partially offset by clothing inflation at 1.6%, appliances -0.4%, and housing rentals around 1%
— kevin lings (@lingskevin) October 20, 2021
My positions for the everything rally.
/ September, the CPI increased 5.4% after advancing 5.3% on a year-on-year basis in August.
/ China Q3 GDP at 4.9%
/ Biden announced that the Port of Los Angeles would start operating around the clock, following the Port of Long Beach's lead, to ease congestion
/ $2.7 Trillion in Crisis Savings Stay Hoarded by Wary Consumers
/ Microsoft shuts down LinkedIN in China
/ MTNs IHS Towers lists in NY, MTN stake worth R22bn
/ Government cracking down on imported cement, but not with tariffs.
/ IMF bumps local GDP to 5% for 2021
/ Murray & Roberts expands in the US
/ Long4Life results and offer on the table
/ Tharisa gets their Chrome plant cold commissioned
/ Alaris & CSG both have delisting offers.
/ US jobs disappoints, but unemployment 4.8%.
/ 15% global tax rate approved.
/ Oil continues to run higher
/ Reports that Malaysia is getting back on track with chip packaging sees PGMs run hard as it could be good news for vehicle production
/ Last Tuesday was tenth commemoration of the death of Steve Jobs. A legend and the iPhone one of the best products ever?
/ All facebook properties down on Monday for 6 hours.
/ EOH update shows it’ll make an operating profit
/ Invicta buys Dartcom, moving into communications and renewable energy
/ Zeder results, still waiting on value unlock
/ Sanlam Investment Holdings buying Absa investment businesses.
/ Home loans worth +R56.6 billion were granted in Q2 2021, +40% compared to the same period in 2019.
/ China & Europe power shortages
/ Brent oil trading around $80
/ Merck Covid-19 pill, expected to produce 1.7 million courses for the U.S. government for $1.2B
/ Tesla delivered record 241,300 vehicles in the third quarter
/ Work-from-home forever: PwC offers US employees full-time remote work
/ Level 1 & SA expected to be removed UK red list, will tourists return?
/ Capitec results
/ Bidcorp results
/ PPC debt restructuring
/ Purple Group tie up with Discovery Bank