Worldwide Markets – Episode 656 (12 November)

Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand 🌍💸

1) JSE Under Pressure 🏛️⚖️

Two issues in the spotlight:

a) Competition Commission Complaint
A2X alleges JSE is being anti-competitive around BDA & settlement. This could have a long regulatory process. No quick outcomes expected.

b) Matengu Allegations
Matengu alleges share price manipulation and claims to have emails implicating JSE directors.

• JSE has fired back and asked: Produce the emails.
• There is also a clear seller overhang (ex-director wanting out), which explains the price pressure more plausibly.

Takeaway: Overhang selling often looks like manipulation. But without proof, it's just selling pressure.

2) Should We Scrap SENS Announcements & HEPS? 🤔📰

The JSE is consulting on two potential changes:

• Reduce some SENS announcements (e.g., administrative ETF notices, floating rate resets, etc.)
• Possibly remove HEPS (Headline Earnings Per Share)

Simon’s view:
🚫 Do not remove HEPS.
HEPS is invaluable as an adjusted earnings measure, especially in SA where one-off corporate events are common. The process cost argument doesn’t justify removing a critical metric.

4) Don’t Fight the Trend 🟢📈

Two strong trends right now:

a) Gold 🥇

• Back above $4,100/oz after two brief red weeks.
• Long-term trend still strongly up.
• No point trying to call tops – enjoy the trend while it runs.

b) Rand 🇿🇦💪

• Strengthening since the “liberation blowout” in April (~19.90).
• Now around R17.14 – and trend still down (strengthening).
• This is not just USD weakness.
• Big inflows into SA bonds + stronger commodity prices supporting.

Next key level: R17 → If broken, expect move to low R15s.

5) Results Round-Up 📊💼

6) KAP (PG Bison, UniTrans, beds, auto aftermarket) 🛏️🚚🛠️

• Earnings slump → PE looked blown out, but forward expectations show return to single-digit PE once capex is absorbed.
• Small-caps remain deeply unloved.
• Worth watching, but needs a catalyst.

7) Gold Miners – Pick Your Favourite ⛏️✨

If gold keeps running, most producers will make serious money.

Simon’s preferences:

• AngloGold Ashanti* (ANG) – strong price action, holding trends well.
• Pan African (PAN) – up 7x since Oct 2022.

Others:

• Harmony – now has meaningful copper exposure.
• Sibanye* – gold + PGMs.

ETF option: Satrix RESI* – doubled this year (helped heavily by gold).

⏳ How long to hold?
While gold trend remains intact.

Events & Dates 🗓️

• Monday 17 November @ 10:00 – 91 Income ETFs webcast
  Book: justonelap.com/events
• Friday 8 December – Final Power Hour:
  “Position Your Portfolio for 2026”
  Bookings open next week.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 655

Date: 5 November
Host: Simon Brown
Powered by: Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft – the global money app for travel, payments & investing.

🎙️ This Week’s Big Questions

• When will markets crash? 🤯📉

• Will we finally get a sovereign ratings upgrade? 🇿🇦🔼

• Optasia* lists… but no IPO fireworks 💼🔔

• SA vehicle sales accelerate again 🚗📈

🚀 Shyft Migration Update

If you are an OST/Webtrader/ASI client — but have not yet been notified about migrating to Shyft — that simply means your group is scheduled for 2026, once remaining features roll out.
🔗 Watch the full Power Hour explainer:

🔔 Optasia* Listing – A Calm Debut

• IPO priced at R19

• Day 1: Opened R20.75 → Closed R19.38 (≈ +2% on a -2% market day)

• No big pop → but not a failure

• Existing shareholders + exec team locked in for 185–360 days

• Market consensus sees R25–R26 within 2–3 years if growth executes

Simon’s stance:
✔️ Applied → got only 14% allocation
✔️ Holding
✔️ Looking to build the position over time

🚗 SA Vehicle Sales – Strong Again

October sales: 55,960 units
➡️ Best October since 2014
📈 Driven partly by car rental fleets restocking for the holiday season
✅ Still good news for motor retailers

🇿🇦 Potential Sovereign Ratings Upgrade?

• SA remains junk with Moody’s, Fitch & S&P Global

• Outlooks have shifted flat → positive

• S&P may consider upgrade in November

• MTBPS next week: Expected to show higher-than-budgeted tax revenue
  → Thanks to booming gold & PGM prices ⚒️💰

But…
💬 Citadel’s Maarten Ackerman: “Not so fast — upgrade may still take time.”

Key stat:
Foreigners purchased the most SA government bonds (Aug–Sep) since records began in 1994 — even while we remain junk.

🪙 Gold – Consolidating at $3,950–$4,050

• Price: $3,964 at recording

• Analyst view (Petri Redelinghuys from Herenya Capital Advisors):
  → Good entry zone for those who missed the earlier run

• Chart setup: Sideways consolidation, waiting for next leg

🌏 China–US Trade “Peace”?

• Trump offers tariff cuts on fentanyl ingredients

• China offers:

  • Soybean purchases 🌱 (they buy 50% of global supply)

  • Lifting rare earth export restrictions for 1 year 🧲

Reality:
China still holds the real leverage here.

📉 Market Crash Fears – Let’s Talk About It

✔️ Will markets crash?

Yes. Guaranteed. Always have. Always will.

❓ When?

Nobody knows. Not even the clever people.

🧱 Bull markets climb a wall of worry.

There are always scary headlines.

🎯 Key Takeaways

• Being in cash waiting for the crash is costly.

• Even when crashes happen, markets often do not fall back to where you sold.

• Timing the bottom is even harder.

• If you're worried → trim, rebalance, don’t go 100% cash.

Stats (S&P 500 historical):

Conclusion:
Staying invested wins — unless you’re already drawing retirement income.

🏁 Final Thoughts

• Markets will crash — we just don’t know when

• Keep investing, keep rebalancing, don’t try to be clever

• And remember: cash is a drag over the long term

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 World Wide Markets Ep. 654 — 29 October 2025

🎙️ “Gold took us up … and gold will take us down.”

🪙 Gold Takes the JSE for a Ride

• Gold led the JSE to record highs — and now it’s leading it back down.
• Year-to-date returns:
  • Gold +49 %, Harmony +87 %, Pan African +126 %, DRD +150 %, Gold Fields +162 %, AngloGold Ashanti* +167 %!
  • Excluding dividends!
• Simon notes clear support around $3,600-3,800, with further downside likely.
• The Top 40 is up ~38 % YTD, but the Resources Index (Resi) is +93 % — remove that, and the market’s ~20 %.
• Translation: half this year’s gains came from gold ⛏️. When gold falls, the JSE will feel it.
• Simon spots a “kangaroo-tail” reversal candle — 10 straight green months is unprecedented 📉.
• Expect short-term weakness but the long-term gold story isn’t over — deficits, inflation, and de-dollarization keep the bull case alive 💰.
• For those who “missed” gold, this pullback may be your chance — scale in slowly rather than catching the knife 🪙⚖️.

Top40 Monthly chart 2025

💡 Optasia IPO Extended

• Fintech AI & machine-learning listing — application deadline extended to Thursday 30 Oct (lunchtime).
• Simon applied after FirstRand took a 20.1 % stake at R 19, top of the range 💼.
• Despite muted enthusiasm from guests on Stock Watch, the institutional interest makes it intriguing 🤖📊.
• Allocation risk remains — expect to receive only a fraction 🎟️.

🚗 WeBuyCars: Market Hits the Brakes

• Trading update disappointed; share price −13.5 %.
• HEPS: 222 – 226 c vs ~240 c consensus ➡️ P/E ≈ 20 (“fair”).
• Was pricey at ~30× earnings, now more realistic ⚖️.
• Chinese car imports may start competing at lower price points 🇨🇳 → potential pressure on used-car margins.
• Still, for those who missed the run, this could be a re-entry point 🚘.

🏠 Balwin Results

• Decent set of numbers — growth across Western Cape, KZN and Gauteng.
• No dividend 💧 → debt reduction focus.
• Sector tailwinds: lower rates + improving bond approvals (Uber = Ooba).
• Strong demand for mid-tier and affordable housing 🏗️.
• Simon holds Calgro M3* in the same space.

⛏️ Commodities & PGMs Holding Up

• Anglo American & Kumba raise guidance 👍 → stronger pricing and better rail flow.
• Valtera still recovering from floods, but higher PGM prices help.
• Platinum breakout ⚙️ $ 1 550 + after a decade range bound 850 – 1 100.
• Palladium rebounding too ( $ 1 700 resistance ).
• Trend: higher highs and higher lows 📈.

🏪 Pick n Pay: Slow Road to Recovery

• Still loss-making but loss shrinking 📉.
• Adjusting for Boxer, cash and tax deferrals → valuation ≈ –R 3 billion (cheap on paper).
• Sean Summers cautious: recovery will be slower than hoped.
• Needs to win market share from Shoprite* – a tough battle 🛒🆚.

🇨🇳🇺🇸 US-China Trade & Tariffs

• Possible trade deal emerging 🎯 — China may buy soybeans, ease rare-earth curbs.
• Perception = bullish for equities, bearish for gold (short term).
• US markets closing at record highs 📈 — a deal would supercharge them.
• Meanwhile, US Supreme Court to decide whether Trump can impose tariffs unilaterally.
  • Lower court said no → prediction markets expect he’ll lose ⚖️.
  • Outcome could remove tariffs entirely – massive implications for trade and exporters.
  • Retroactive refunds possible? Unclear 💵❓

🏦 Shift Migration Update

• Standard Bank Online Share Trading, AutoShare Invest and WebTrader are migrating to the Shyft app 📲.
• Phase 2 migration this week → details at justonelap.com/powerhour.
• If you haven’t been contacted, your turn comes in 2026 (probably after March).
• Shift offers cheapest Forex rates and multi-asset access globally 🌍💳.

💬 Final Thought

“Gold gave us the party — and now it’s calling last rounds.”
Expect volatility, opportunities, and reversals — but don’t lose the big picture.

Simon Brown
🎧 Worldwide Markets Ep. 654 | Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft
💙 Look after yourself — and someone else too.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Worldwide Markets Ep. 653 – Gold Crashes, Markets Burn, and Optasia’s JSE Listing

🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown
📅 Recorded: Tuesday, 21 October 2025
📈 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & Shyft – The global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand.

💥 Local Markets Crushed

A brutal day on the JSE as the market closed down 2.5%, with resources tumbling 7.8% despite a steady rand (R17.43).

• Gold miners collapsed: Implats & Sibanye -10%, Gold Fields & Harmony -9%, AngloGold* -8%.

• PGMs also fell hard: Northam & Impala down over 7%.

• Retail pain: TFG* dropped a shocking 16.6% after a poor trading update, dragging down Pepkor, Mr Price*, and even WeBuyCars.

• U.S. markets were red but only mildly so — calm compared to SA’s bloodbath.

🪙 Gold: After 9 Green Weeks, the Pullback Arrives

Gold finally broke its 10-week winning streak, plunging from $4,378 to $4,122 — a $250 drop in two days 😬

• Simon notes this was inevitable after nine straight weeks of gains.

• Likely short-term support around $3,950–$4,000, with potential consolidation below $4,000.

• Despite the scare, the Satrix Resi is still up over 100% for 2025.
  💡 Lesson: even in a bull run, sharp corrections are part of the journey.

🧠 Optasia: AI Fintech Listing on the JSE

A major new listing — Optasia (code: OPA) — is set to debut 3 November.
Valued at around R20–25 billion, it’s one of the largest fintech listings in years.

Key Facts:

• Business: Micro-loans & airtime credit to the unbanked and underbanked.

• Reach: 38 markets (Africa, Asia, Middle East, Europe).

• Scale:

  • 120 million customers/month

  • 32 million loans/day

  • $13m total daily loan value

• Average loan: $5 (microfinance) and $0.25 (airtime credit)

• Defaults: impressively low at 1.14% 💪

• Backers: Standard Bank, RMB, EcoBank, MTN, Vodacom, Airtel, Zain, and more.

• Listing price range: R15.50–R19.00 per share.

• Lockup: 180 days for sellers, 365 for directors.

• Existing shareholder exit: Ethos Capital (EPE) partially selling down.

Simon’s Take 🎯

• Solid business with real revenue and strong growth (≈90% YoY in 2025H1).

• But… valuation not cheap (PE ≈ mid-20s).

• Concerns over allocation uncertainty and currency/regulatory risks in frontier markets.

• 💬 Verdict: “I’m not applying — great business, fair valuation, but not compelling enough.”

🚗 CMH* (Combined Motor Holdings): Excellent Results & Share Buyback

Vehicle sales hit their highest levels since 2015, and CMH delivered stellar numbers 🚙💨

• Headline earnings: +25%

• No dividend this time, but a 15% share buyback instead.

• Strong exposure to Indian & Chinese brands (nearly 50% of sales) plus Suzuki, now SA’s #2 brand.

• Legacy luxury brands are struggling.

• Historic returns:

  • Share price last decade: 12%

  • Dividend yield last decade: ~10%

  • Combined ≈ 22% annual shareholder return over the past decade! 📊

The Twist

Founder Jeb McIntosh (79) may be looking to gradually exit — Simon suspects the buyback could facilitate this.
Still, Simon’s holding: “I’m not selling — unless they offer me a crazy price.”

🏦 Upcoming Event: Standard Bank Client Migration

📢 Important for OST, WebTrader, and AutoShare Invest clients:
Standard Bank is migrating investment clients to Shift.
Join Simon Brown and Adish from Standard Bank on Tuesday, 28 October, 5:30 PM (Rosebank or Webcast).
🔗 Register at justonelap.com/events

💬 Final Thoughts

Markets can be messy, but knowledge is power.
Simon wraps up with his usual reminder:

“Look after yourself — and if you can, look after somebody else too.” ❤️

🔑 Episode Summary

• 🪙 Gold’s epic run ends with a sharp pullback.

• 📉 JSE hammered by resources & retailers.

• 🤖 Optasia brings fintech AI excitement to the JSE.

• 🚗 CMH delivers strong results and a massive buyback.

• 🏦 Big changes coming for Standard Bank investing clients.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets Ep. 652 — “Dividends, Gold, and Gearing Gone Wild”
📅 15 October 2025 | Hosted by Simon Brown | Powered by Standard Bank SHYFT

🪙 Gold Rush Continues

Gold is unstoppable! 🚀
Now trading above R4,100/oz, the yellow metal has clocked eight consecutive green weeks — the longest winning streak since early 2024.

Simon digs into:

• 📈 Historical patterns since the pandemic: jump → consolidate → jump again
• 🏦 Central banks as persistent buyers — but what happens if they ever stop?
• 🤔 With gold having doubled in three years, central banks’ reserves are now worth far more — will they slow purchases?

Gold weekly chart

🧬 ASP Isotopes & the Renegen* Deal

🔥 The small-cap buzz continues!

ASP Isotopes (📊 JSE-listed) soared 34% after being added to a Morgan Stanley National Security Index, thanks to its defense-related tech.

• 🧪 ASP will acquire Renegen at a ratio of 0.09i ASP shares per Renegen share.
• 📈 The stock was badly mispriced at listing, now settling into realistic levels.
• 🧠 Simon’s take: it’s partly a meme stock, but still delivering products and momentum.

🌍 Tariff Turmoil & Trump Tactics

🗞️ Trump shocked markets promising 100% tariffs on China, triggering a:

• 📉 2% drop on the S&P 500
• 📉 3% drop on the Nasdaq
  …before walking it all back two days later. Classic “art of the deal.” 🎭
  💬 China’s latest export data (+8.4% YoY) shows resilience, finding new global buyers despite tensions.

💥 Crypto Carnage: Over-Geared Traders Wiped Out

📉 Bitcoin slid 10%, altcoins dropped 20–50% — and many over leveraged traders got liquidated.
Simon’s tough love 💬:

“If a 10% move wipes you out, you’re not trading — you’re gambling.” 🎲

He explains gearing simply:

• 💰 10× gearing = a 10% drop → total wipe out.
• 💰 50× gearing = just a 2% drop → goodbye capital.
• Crypto’s already volatile — no need for extra leverage.

💸 JSE Large Caps: Great Dividend Yields

Following last week’s small-cap value picks, Simon scans big JSE names offering strong income 📊:

🏦 Banks

• Nedbank (9%) – solid and cheap.
• ABSA (8%) – attractive and trading below NAV.
• Standard Bank (7%) – quality but pricier.
• FirstRand (5.2%) – premium quality, lower yield.
• Investec (6.5%) – decent, but less excitement.

🏭 Industrials & Commodities

• Tungela (50%) – monster yield, but coal outlook uncertain.
• Omnia (special dividend) – mixed on chemicals.
• AVI (9%) – steady margins, strong chart 📊.
• Tiger Brands (7%) – turnaround story under new management.
• Reunert – defense & cabling play; value emerging.

🏠 Property

• Equites, Growthpoint, Fairvest, Hyprop, Resilient – 6–8% yields, but NAV discounts vary.

🎰 Leisure & Retail

• Sun International (10%) – betting becoming core growth area 🎲
• Mr Price* (4%) – comeback potential.
• Woolies (2.5%) – still struggling with fashion 👗
• Shoprite* (2.7%) – premium, low yield.

💼 Asset Managers

• Old Mutual (9%), Coronation (8%), Sygnia – benefit from rising markets.
• Alexander Forbes – solid income play.

📡 Telcos & Others

• Telkom – undervalued, post-Swiftnet debt cut, potential MTN suitor 📶
• Grindrod – ports booming, Africa trade tailwinds 🌍
• Bitvest (4%) – cash generative, debt manageable, chart support at R200.

🧾 Key Takeaways

✅ Gold’s bull market still strong — no legs down yet.
✅ ASP Isotopes & Renegen merger heating up.
✅ Beware leverage — crypto is wild enough.
✅ Dividend stocks offering serious income on the JSE.
✅ Buffett Power Hour this Thursday — don’t miss it! 💼✨

🎧 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & SHYFT —
💳 The global money app for travel, shopping, payments, and investments, with the lowest Forex rates.

👉 Subscribe to Worldwide Markets wherever you get your podcasts.
💬 Follow Simon on Twitter/X: @SimonPB

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets Ep. 651 — “Value on the JSE? We Find the Cheapest Shares” (8 October 2025)

📅 Recorded Tuesday afternoon | Powered by Standard Bank & SHYFT

💡 Episode Overview

This week Simon Brown digs into value on the JSE — where the cheapest shares might be hiding 👀.
He also unpacks:

• The Purple Group* pullback 🟣
• ETF returns so far in 2025 📈 (spoiler: it’s been a wild year!)
• Upcoming Standard Bank Power Hour: Investing Like Warren Buffett 🧠

🟣 Purple Group: Pullback or Panic?

• After a huge rally to R2.74, Purple Group has pulled back — but no need to panic.
• Likely to find support around R2.10, with upside targets around R3.50 💪.
• Expecting strong trading updates by late October or early November.
• With markets, gold, crypto, and offshore assets all flying, Purple should benefit as trading volumes rise.

📊 2025 ETF Returns — A Booming Year

Simon’s recent ETF analysis shows a banner year for SA ETFs (excluding dividends):
🏆 Top Performers:

• Satrix RESI* +118% 🪨
• Satrix Shariah +69% 🌙 (thanks to heavy gold exposure)
• 10X Top 20, Rafi 40*, Gold ETFs, SWIX, and EasyETFs Global Equity (Active) all strong 📈

📉 Laggards:

• Signia Health Innovation −9.2% 🧬
• India ETF −8.7% 🇮🇳
• Global Bonds & Healthcare ETFs slightly negative

🪙 Overall takeaway: 2025 is a golden year — literally and figuratively.

💸 Value Hunt: The Cheapest Shares on the JSE

Simon’s criteria for spotting value gems 💎:

• PE ratio: 0–10 (profitable companies only)
• Dividend yield: >0.01% (sign of free cash flow)
• Price-to-book: <1 (trading below net asset value)

🔍 Highlights from the Screen

Property & Small Caps:
🏢 Ascension, Safari, Emira, Octodec — deep discounts to NAV, juicy yields (~8%).
🚍 Putprop — Western Cape bus operator, tiny but intriguing (PE 5.7, yield 3.5%).
🏠 Calgro M3* — low-cost housing builder, due for results soon; Baldwin also looking attractive.

Media & Industrials:
📺 E-Media — PE 4.8, dividend ~12%, cheap but illiquid.
🪵 Sappi & Mondi — paper industry under pressure.
⚙️ Invicta — PE <5, yield 3%, cutting prefs and improving cash flow.
🪓 Master Drilling — exposure to gold & copper, global operations, decent IP.
📦 Mpact — tied up in Caxton’s bid & Competition Commission delays.

Consumer & Financials:
🛋️ Lewis Group — “a bank disguised as a furniture store,” 10%+ yield, strong results.
🏦 Investec, ABSA, Nedbank — cheap banks with high yields and solid balance sheets.
🧓 Old Mutual — ~9% yield, launching a bank soon; well positioned in bull markets.
🚗 Motus & CMH* — benefiting from decade-high vehicle sales.
📦 Stor-age*, Spear, Growthpoint — steady property plays; prefer those with discounts to NAV.

Other Notables:
🐟 Sea Harvest & Oceana — solid businesses, but “fish stocks make for tough investments.”
🪙 Sabvest — style value play, small discount to NAV.
💼 HCI — resolved union cash flow issues, trades below asset value.
🎙️ African Media Entertainment — great yield (10%), but beware of liquidity traps.

⚠️ Simon’s Key Takeaways

✅ There is value on the JSE, but many bargains are illiquid — trade carefully.
✅ Liquidity traps can hurt even when valuations look great.
✅ Dividend yields + solid cash flow are strong signals of resilience.
✅ Always DYOR — “Not financial advice.”

🧭 Final Thoughts

2025 continues to be a strong year for gold, ETFs, and SA banks, with pockets of deep value emerging across small caps and property.

💬 “Markets that are going higher make us feel richer — but if we’re positioned right, they actually make us richer.” — Simon Brown

🔗 Powered by Standard Bank & SHYFT

🌍 SHYFT, the global money app from Standard Bank — travel, shop, pay, and invest globally with the best Forex rates anytime, anywhere.

👋 Closing Note:
Nine more episodes to go this year!
Simon signs off: “Look after yourself — and if you can, look after somebody else as well.” ❤️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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🌍 Worldwide Markets Episode 650 – 1 October 2025

Hosted by Simon Brown
Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & the Shyft Global Money App 💳🌐

🔑 Key Topics This Week

📈 Purple Group* & EasyEquities

• Purple Group share price up ~150% this year 🚀

• Results driven by non-revenue income (inactivity fees & loyalty program)

• Strong client acquisition via Capitec & Discovery Bank partnerships 🏦

• Trading volumes soaring in a bullish market 💹

Purple Group | YTD to close 29 Sep 25

💰 Top 40 hits 100,000

• Thanks to gold miners & PGMs ⛏️

• AngloGold Ashanti* up nearly 200% in 2025 ✨

• Bitcoin also at record highs: $110k – $115k ₿

🇿🇦 Bull case for SA Inc.

• Eskom turns profit ⚡, load shedding largely behind us

• FAFTA gray list exit expected late October ✅

• Stronger rand & softer oil price supporting consumers ⛽

• Lower inflation, potential rate cuts in the US vs. SA rates hold 💵

• Bond yields easing = cheaper government borrowing 💸

🛒 Boxer trading update

• Like-for-like sales up 5.3%, turnover +13.9% 📊

• EPS guidance strong but valuation looks pricey vs. Shoprite* 🍏

🤖 Nvidia’s* self-dealing investments

• Billions poured into OpenAI, CoreWeave & Mistral 🧠

• Risks of dot-com style "self-dealing" re-emerging ⚠️

• Simon remains a cautious Nvidia shareholder

📉 Global delistings trend

• JSE listings halved over 20 years 📉

• US market also down from 8,000+ to ~4,000 listings

• Private equity & venture capital keep firms private longer ⏳

📅 Upcoming Event

Standard Bank Power Hour – Warren Buffett: Blueprint for a Lifetime of Investing 🦫💡
🗓️ 16 October, 17:30 SAST
📍 Rosebank, Johannesburg (in-person & webcast)

📝 Simon’s Notes

• Obsidian vs Evernote: experimenting with second-brain systems 📚🧠

• Thanks for all listener feedback 🙏

🎙️ Closing

10 more episodes left before Simon’s year-end break ✈️
“Look after yourself, and if you can, look after somebody else too.” ❤️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Worldwide Markets Ep. 649 – Building a Second Brain 🧠✨

Recorded on 24 September 2025 (from the beach!) – Hosted by Simon Brown

This week, Simon takes a break from market talk 📉📈 to explore something equally powerful: how to manage the flood of data and information we face every day. Instead of focusing on stocks, currencies, or central banks, he dives into the idea of creating a "second brain" — a system to capture, organize, and use knowledge effectively.

🔑 Episode Highlights

• 🧠 Brains are great at decisions – quick choices like what to eat or which route to take. But storing and retrieving data? Not so much.

• ✍️ Handwritten notes win – research shows writing helps memory more than typing. Simon shares how digital handwritten notes improve recall.

• 📅 Calendars as to-do lists – forget endless apps. Simon’s hack: putting everything (from work deadlines to buying milk 🥛 & whiskey 🥃) in his calendar for one central source of truth.

• 📚 Building a Second Brain (by Tiago Forte) – the PARA + CODE framework that inspired Simon’s system.

🗂️ PARA Framework

• P – Projects 🎯: Active tasks (e.g. upcoming presentations, podcast prep).

• A – Areas 🌐: Broader ongoing themes (like camping 🏕️ or tech gadgets 📸).

• R – Resources 📖: Interesting but general material worth saving.

• A – Archive 📦: Where used or finished items end up.

🔄 CODE Method

• C – Capture 📸: Snap photos, clip articles, jot notes into Evernote.

• O – Organize 🗃️: Sort into PARA a few times a week.

• D – Distill 💡: Pull out the key ideas & insights.

• E – Express 🗣️: Use the information for podcasts, presentations, articles, or even shopping lists 🛒.

🛠️ Tools Simon Uses

• Evernote 📱💻: Clunky but everywhere (phone, laptop, e-reader, iPad). Paid version makes it work seamlessly.

• Tried but moved on: Obsidian (too complex), Notion (powerful but not his fit), Raindrop.io (good for bookmarking but limited).

🎯 Why it Works

✔️ Frees up mental space – no more stressing about remembering.
✔️ Keeps data accessible & actionable.
✔️ Turns chaos (screenshots, random notes, cluttered camera rolls) into a system.
✔️ Supports Simon’s creative and teaching work.

🙌 Your Turn

Simon invites listeners to share their hacks:
👉 How do you manage the constant stream of info?
👉 Do you have your own “second brain” system?

Send us your thoughts, tools, and strategies 💬.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

💡 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments, and investments with the best forex rates anytime, anywhere. 🌍💳

🌍 World Wide Markets Ep. 648 – Cash-Rich Companies, Fed Cuts & China’s Housing Woes

Host: Simon Brown
Date: 17 September 2025

📉 China’s Housing Market

• New house prices fell 2.5% YoY – still negative since May 2022.
• Bottomed in October 2023 (-5.9%) and now trending upward.
• Reflects weak Chinese consumer confidence, similar to South Africa 🇨🇳🇿🇦.
• Evergrande’s collapse still casts a shadow.

Chinese New Home index YonY

🏦 Central Banks in Focus

FOMC (US): Decision due Wednesday evening.

• Market expects 25bps cut, with more cuts likely in Oct & Dec.
• US unemployment says “cut”, inflation says “don’t cut” – a real policy squeeze.
• Trump pushing for FOMC shake-up & questioning quarterly reporting 📊.

MPC (SA): Decision Thursday.

• Inflation at 3.5%, close to target.
• Mixed economist views: some say no cuts until 2027, others see cuts sooner.
• Fed cuts could influence SARB moves via rand 💵➡️🇿🇦.

📊 Trump vs. Quarterly Results

• Trump suggests companies report every six months instead of quarterly.
• Argument: reduces costs and red tape.
• Counterpoint: US market’s strength lies in transparency & discipline from frequent reporting.
• Unlikely to change, but sparks debate on market “exceptionalism” 🇺🇸.

🏢 Three Stocks With More Cash & Investments Than Market Cap

1. 📰 Caxton (JSE:CAT)

• 💰 Cash: R3bn + R1.3bn stake in Mpact.
• Market cap: R4.4bn → stock “almost free” if stripped for parts.
• Dividend payer, PE \~7, yield \~5%.
• Not flashy, but offers Buffett-style margin of safety.

2. 🚚 Supergroup (JSE:SPG)

• 💰 Cash: R5.2bn, but liabilities of R9.5bn linked to assets held for sale.
• Supply chain, dealerships, fleet solutions.
• Debt-heavy, UK exposure risky 🇬🇧.
• Verdict: less attractive vs. Caxton.

3. 🛒 Pick n Pay (JSE:PIK)

• Owns 65.6% of Boxer → worth \~R20bn.
• Plus R5bn cash, R1bn debt, R2.8bn deferred tax asset.
• Market cap \~R20bn → potential undervaluation.
• PE ugly now, but 2027/28 earnings growth could re-rate it.
• Selling down Boxer stake could unlock value.

⚒️ Mining & M&A

Anglo American buying Teck Resources (Canada, copper focus).

• * Increases copper weighting to \~⅔ of revenue.
• Head office shifting to Toronto 🇨🇦.
• Deal raises takeover questions – could BHP* come back for Anglo?

🇨🇳 Nvidia vs. China

• China says Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws (linked to 2020 acquisition).
• Also probing Texas Instruments for “dumping”.
• Comes as US-China trade talks continue, TikTok deadline looms ⏳.
• Possible bargaining chip in ongoing negotiations.
• Simon still holds Nvidia.

🧠 Next Week: Second Brain Special

Simon explains how to build & use a “second brain” for decision-making & information management. Because our brains are great at decisions 🧠✔️ … but terrible at remembering ❌.

👉 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & SHYFT – The global money app for forex, travel, shopping, payments & investments.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 647 (9 Sept 2024)

This week on *Worldwide Markets*, Simon Brown dives into global markets, tech giants, crypto shifts, commodities, and currencies. Recorded a day early before heading to Leaderex, here’s what’s moving markets right now. Powered by Standard Bank and Shyft. 💳🌐

📊 US Jobs & Rate Cuts

• US jobs report was a mixed bag → +22k jobs, but mostly in healthcare.
• June revised downward to negative, July slightly up.
• Unemployment steady at 4.3%.
• Market expectation: Fed to cut rates next week after Jackson Hole signals.
• SA MPC unlikely to cut as inflation edges higher at 3.5%.

🔍 Alphabet (Google) Court Cases

Alphabet gets a gentle slap on the wrist in antitrust cases.
Remedies minimal → no spin-offs of Chrome/Android, search payments (Apple $20bn/year, Firefox $750m) remain.
Stock ran to **all-time highs 🚀 (PE still below historical mean).
Another case pending on ad dominance – possible spinoffs (YouTube, DoubleClick?) could unlock hidden value.

₿ AltVest → African Bitcoin Corporation

• AltVest rebrands to African Bitcoin Corporation (ABC).
• Pivot: becoming a Bitcoin treasury company like MicroStrategy.
• Raising R11m at R11/share (vs. current ±R5). Proceeds to fund name change + Bitcoin buys.
• Ambition: raise R210m (maybe even $210m?) in tranches.
• Risky bet → doubling down on volatile BTC exposure. ⚡

🛢️ Oil & Sasol

• OPEC+ to increase output ~200k barrels/day.
• Saudi Arabia aims for market share → oil likely heading to $60.
• Sasol still strong 💪 → potential run to R135–R140 before Simon trims profits.

💡 ASML & Mistral (AI)

• Rumours: Dutch chip giant ASML investing \$1.5bn in French AI startup Mistral.
• ASML has cash $8.5bn, but risks blurring lines by funding customers’ ecosystem.
• Simon skeptical: “Picking AI winners this early is messy.”

📈 Bull Market Still Running

SA Top 40 at record highs (95k+).
Possible push to 100k points this month.
“This is still a bull market until it’s not.” 🐂🔥

🥇 Precious Metals

• Gold → holding gains, bullish above \$3,450.
• Platinum & Palladium → strong breakouts, holding support.
• Silver → resilient above \$40.
• Precious metals complex all looking firm. ✨

💵 Rand & Global Trade

• Rand currently at R17.55, with potential to test R17.00 if US cuts rates.
• Africa-China trade up 25% to $122bn → filling void left by US. 🇨🇳🤝🌍

🇺🇸 Trump’s Tariff Exemptions

Trump exempts; uranium, tungsten, graphite, gold, bullion from tariffs.
Good news for SA resources sector.

🎙️ Final Thoughts

• Markets remain bullish, metals are shining, oil likely weaker, and crypto experiments continue.
• If you’re at Leaderex, come say hi 👋.
• Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for payments, travel, and investing.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌠Worldwide Markets Ep. 646 – 3 September 2025

ðŸŽ™ï¸ Hosted by Simon Brown

Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft, the global money app 💳ðŸŒ

📈 Key Topics This Week

🌠Emerging Markets: 20 Years of Poor Returns

EM ETFs have underperformed vs. the US and gold

20-year CAGR:

📊 NASDAQ: +1,400% (14.5% CAGR)

🟡 Gold: +700% (10.9% CAGR)

🇺🇸 S&P 500: +440% (8.7% CAGR)

🌠Emerging Markets: +193% (5.5% CAGR)

BRIC dream (Brazil, Russia, India, China) never delivered 💭

Headwinds: financial crises, currency depreciation 💸, weaker governance 📉

🟡 Gold & ⚪ Silver Running

Gold futures hit $3,560/oz 🚀

Central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries

Silver back above $40, near 2011 highs

Stagflation worries (low growth, high inflation, debt) → gold demand surges

Gold weekly chart | 02 September 2025

🛒 Shoprite* Results & 60/60 Growth

Checkers 60/60 delivered R18.9bn revenue ðŸŽðŸ“¦

That’s nearly 20% of Checkers’ sales & close to Pick n Pay’s market cap

Strong results, inflation at just 2.3% ✅

Stock price up ~5%

🚗 Record August Vehicle Sales

51,880 units sold, highest since Oct 2019

Brands leading:

🚙 Toyota (13k+)

🚗 Suzuki (~6.5k)

🇨🇳 Rising share from Chinese brands (GWM, Chery, JAC)

Trend: consumers keeping cars longer, turning to cheaper imports ðŸ·ï¸

🧪 ASP Isotopes JSE Listing

Listed ahead of Renergen* takeover

Local pricing looks wildly inflated at R1,100 vs. realistic ~R165 📉

Very thin volumes; caution urged âš ï¸

🌠Geopolitics: New World Order

India 🤠Russia 🤠China meeting – cooperation on energy, fertilizers, space & security

Growing shift away from USD towards RMB in oil settlement

US power not gone yet, but cracks in global dominance showing ðŸ›ï¸

🔑 Takeaways

EM equities have disappointed; US tech dominance continues 💻

Gold remains a hedge in uncertain times 🟡

Shoprite Sixty60 is now a R20bn business 🚚

Car sales at record highs, boosted by affordable Chinese brands 🚘

Watch out for weird valuations in new listings 👀

Geopolitics shifting – 2025 could be a turning point ðŸŒ

📌 Next week’s episode will be late – Simon’s at LeaderX on Tuesday. Come say hi if you’re there! 🙌

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

📌 Key Themes This Week

• 📊 Naspers share split – AGM approves a 5-for-1 split to make shares more affordable for smaller investors.

• 💬 Jackson Hole update – Jerome Powell’s last appearance as Fed Chair, shifting focus from inflation to jobs. Markets pricing in September & December rate cuts with high certainty.

• 💸 Trump & the Fed – Trump fires Fed Governor Lisa Cook ❌ and pushes to pack the Fed with rate-cut friendly members.

• 🇺🇸 Intel stake – Trump administration takes a 10% stake in Intel via the Chips Act, raising questions about “state capitalism.”

• 📉 Dollar weakness – Dollar index slides, Rand strengthens to R17.44, risk-on sentiment in global markets.

• 💷 UK debt crisis – 30-year gilt yields at levels last seen in 1998 (5.6%). Mounting debt costs threaten stability.

📈 Company Results & Market Moves

• 🏫 ADvTech*

  • Strong results: 5-year CAGR → Dividends +24%, Revenue +13%, EPS doubled.

  • Enrolments still growing vs. competitor Curro shrinking.

  • Expanding into tertiary education in Ghana 🇬🇭.

  • Solid valuation: PE ~15, dividend yield ~3%.

• 🚢 Grindrod

  • Decent numbers, disposing businesses to strengthen balance sheet.

  • Awarded 3rd-party rail access via Transnet 🚂.

  • Cheap valuation: PE ~8, Price/Book ~1.

• 🛢️ Sasol

  • Results stronger than expected: Free cash flow R12bn (up from R7bn).

  • Stock rallied past R120, eyeing R140.

  • Needs stronger chemical markets, higher oil & weaker Rand for tailwinds.

• ⚙️ Nvidia (results pending)

  • Market eagerly awaiting numbers. Results due Wednesday aftermarket.

• 🪖 Rheinmetall

  • German defence stock up +160% YTD on European defence demand.

  • Valuations stretched (PE 89 vs. mean 23). Possible overheated trade.

🌐 Macro Watch

• 📉 US inflation & rate cuts – Markets expect two cuts in 2024, possibly November too. Powell less worried about inflation at 2.5–3%.

• 🏦 Tariffs & inflation – Spread over time, reducing immediate shock but sustaining price pressure.

• 💵 Debt & inflation – Inflation helps deflate $30T US debt mountain faster.

• 💷 UK bonds – Debt costs rising sharply, pushing the UK into deeper fiscal stress.

📌 Quick Hits

• 📉 S&P 500 at 23x earnings – Historically, this leads to flat 10-year returns (±2%).

• 💱 Dollar trend – Weakening outlook continues, aligning with Trump’s economic policy.

• 🇩🇪 Rheinmetall boom – Defence spending pushes stock sky-high, but risks of overheating.

• 📚 ETF database update – Now includes active ETFs 👉 justonelap.com/ETFdatabase.

• 🎥 Power Hour – Live session Tuesday 17:30 SA time, replay available later.

🎙️ Host: Simon Brown
📅 Recorded: Tuesday 27 August 2024
💡 Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft app

👉 Markets are on a risk-on rally 🚀, but with high valuations, debt risks, and political interference at central banks, caution remains the watchword.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Worldwide Markets Ep. 644 – 20 August 2024

🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown

This week’s episode dives into Buffett’s latest moves, Google’s iconic IPO, and big results from Standard Bank, MTN, and Sasol. Here’s what you need to know:

📈 Buffett Buys UnitedHealth – Should You Follow?

• Berkshire Hathaway picked up UnitedHealth (UNH).
• Stock has fallen from $600 → $308 due to federal investigations ⚖️.
• On paper, valuation looks attractive:
  • Forward PE ~19 (below long-term average).
  • Price-to-book ~2.9 vs decade average of 4.9.
• Analysts split: 2 sells, 5 holds, 12 buys, 6 strong buys.
• ⚠️ Simon’s take: “Don’t blindly follow Buffett. Healthcare is a regulatory minefield. Use it as a starting point, not a buy signal.”

🩺 Healthcare Investing Alternatives

• Johnson & Johnson* (JNJ) – more stable exposure.
• Healthcare services & REITs (e.g. hospitals, medical equipment).
• ETFs on JSE:
  • Satrix Healthcare Innovation ETF (STXHLT).
  • Signia’s healthcare exposure sits in their active funds.
• Note: Active ETFs will soon be added to local databases ✅.

🏦 Standard Bank Results

• ROE: 19.1% – huge number.
• Forward PE: 8 (cheap vs historical 10.1).
• Dividend yield: 6.6% 💰.
• Price-to-book: 1.4 (in line with decade average).
• Expanding strongly across Africa 🌍.
• Simon: “Boring, quality portfolio stock. I like it, but waiting for cheaper entry near 240.”

Standard Bank | Weekly

📱 MTN Results

• Headline numbers looked great due to base effects from currency collapses in Ghana 🇬🇭 & Nigeria 🇳🇬.
• Market unimpressed: stock fell 8% 📉.
• Still strong 1-year return: +77% (incl. dividends +83%).
• Forward PE ~13.5 vs long-term 25 → appears undervalued.
• Risks: exec churn, CAPEX-heavy, regulatory hurdles.
• Simon: “Not a fan of telcos – data is just a utility.”

🛢️ Sasol Update

• Stock bounced from R50 → R100.
• Weak oil price outlook could hurt 📉.
• Operations improving, second-half expected stronger.
• Simon’s take: “Not a long-term hold. More of a trade: buy around R100, maybe ride it to R140, then get out.”

🔎 Google’s IPO Turns 21 🎂

• IPO’d in 2004 via Dutch Auction – gave retail investors equal footing vs institutions.
• Raised $1.66bn at $85/share.
• Today’s market cap ~ $2.5 trillion 🤯.
• Return: ~8,000% since IPO 🚀.
• Fun fact: for years, Domino’s Pizza IPO (same week) had similar returns 🍕 vs 🔍, but Google pulled ahead.
• Regulatory cloud: pending US judgment in August could hit stock short term ⚖️ → Simon says: “If it falls, I’ll be buying.”

💡 Key Takeaways

• Don’t just copy Buffett – do your homework 📝.
• Healthcare remains risky but ETFs & REITs offer cleaner exposure.
• Standard Bank looks solid, MTN looks risky, Sasol looks tradable.
• Google’s IPO remains one of the best investments of all time – and could still offer value despite regulation headwinds.

👉 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the app that gives you the cheapest forex rates anytime, anywhere 🌍📱.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🇺🇸 US Inflation – Numbers come in softer than expected 📊, fuelling hopes for a **September rate cut** from the Fed 🏦.

⛽ Sasol trading update – PE under 3 😮, H2 profits looking stronger, and the market loving it (+9.7% 🚀).

💰 Share buybacks – Why US companies love them, the tax angle, and Apple’s massive \$100bn spree 🍏.

Apple out standing shares

🪙 Gold & the Resi10 index – Resource stocks roaring in 2024, +72.5% YTD 🤯, but will gold break out of its range? 

Gold Weekly | 12 August 2025

🇨🇳 China trade surplus – Despite tariffs & tensions, it hits a record \$1.2 trillion 📦.

🖥️ Trump vs. Nvidia & AMD – AI chip sales to China now taxed at 15%, and Beijing warns against buying certain models 🤖.

📊 Tool – Just One Lap’s ETF Database is live! Filter by issuer, classification, tax-free status, and even search top holdings 🔍.

Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investments 🌍.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 642
📅 Recorded: Tuesday, 5 August
💼 Host: Simon Brown
🌍 Powered by Standard Bank Shyft – The global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investing.

🔮 Market Highlights

• 📈 Purple Group* rocks
  🚀 Share price has more than doubled since April lows.
  🧾 PE at 56, but strong growth potential and product expansion.
  💼 Simon holds the stock — bought low, holding for the long term.

• 🏦 MPC shifts inflation target 🎯
  🔽 New anchor at 3%, down from 4.5%.
  ⚠️ Finance Minister pushes back — governance concerns.
  💸 Lower inflation = lower raises = better expectations management.
  🧨 Flip side: high real interest rates hurt growth & jobs.

• 🚗 Vehicle sales boom
  📊 July sales >51,000 units — highest since 2019!
  🛻 Light commercial vehicles dominate, Mahindra sneaks into Top 10.
  💰 CMH* shines with low PE and high dividend — Simon holds.
  📉 Motus also cheap, but Simon prefers CMH.

• 🪙 Gold miners printing money
  ✨ AngloGold Ashanti*:
  • 🚜 Production +21%
  • 💰 Free cash flow +149%
  • 📉 Net debt down 92%
  • 💵 80c dividend
  • 💹 Targeting R1,000/share — already at R972!
    ✨ Gold Fields also up ~150% YoY on earnings.

• 🧾 US Bureau of Labor Statistics drama 🇺🇸
  🔥 Trump fires BLS head after unfavourable jobs data.
  ❗ Undermines trust in data — risks U.S. credibility.
  🌎 Bad precedent: Greece, Argentina, China have all suffered from politicised stats.
• 🍊 Tariffs impact SA agriculture
  🇺🇸 U.S. tariffs on citrus & grapes kick in Thursday.
  📉 Sector exposure: ~10% — not massive but not zero.
  👨‍🌾 Some farmers and related stocks (e.g. Mpact) will take a hit.

🧠 Random Insights

• 🪙 Crypto in Parliament?
  🇿🇦 Of 490 South African parliamentarians… only 2 declared owning crypto.
  🤷‍♂️ No surprise crypto isn’t getting policy attention.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🔺 Tariffs Incoming
🇿🇦 SA faces 30% US tariffs starting Friday.
🚗 Auto industry, 🍊 citrus, 🚚 logistics & 🧪 fertilizer sectors (like Omnia, Kaap Agri, Impact) to feel the heat — but no fatal blows expected.

📉 MPC Policy Misfire?
💰 SA inflation at 3%, but rates still stuck at 10.75%.
📉 Is the MPC behind the curve? Simon says: Yes.
📉 Calls for a rate cut of at least 0.5% to 1%.

SA CPI and Prime | 29 July 2025

🥇 Why Hasn’t the SARB Bought Gold in 20 Years?
📊 From 2005 to 2025: only ±48,000 ounces added.
📉 Gold outperformed the USD by a wide margin (680% vs 171%) over 20 years.
🤔 Why the gold aversion? Simon wants answers.

📈 Structured Product Spotlight
💼 New Standard Bank product:
✔️ 100% capital guarantee
✔️ 1.8x upside gearing
✔️ MSCI World Index exposure
📆 3.5 year duration, paid out in ETFs
💸 Min R25k. Closes in Sept.

🚘 Chinese Cars Disrupting the Market
🇨🇳 Omoda CX5 & CS9 – slick, affordable, feature-packed
💡 Screens bigger than laptops, prices lower than rivals
⚠️ Toyota, Ford, VW: Time to worry?

💊 Big Pharma Blunder
🤦‍♂️ Novo Nordisk loses Canadian patent by forgetting to pay a $250 fee
📉 Generics incoming. Massive oops.

🔍 Alphabet Results
💹 Stock up 15% since Simon’s last mention
💰 $95bn cash, low debt
⚖️ Facing antitrust heat – rulings incoming
📉 Possible price dip = buying opportunity?

📢 Next week: Who owns what in Parliament? Crypto, shares, surprises await…

🧠 Hosted by Simon Brown
💳 Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for smart travellers & investors

🌍 This week on Worldwide Markets, Simon dives into a packed show covering inflation, earnings, property deals, and opportunities in local stocks. Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft — your gateway to global investing. 🌐💸

📉 Inflation Target Cut – A Bad Idea?
• SA may shift to a 3% inflation target 📊
• Risks of higher interest rates 😬
• Real rates already sky-high 🚀

💵 Weaker US Dollar & Tech Gains
• Trump’s weaker dollar policy in motion 🇺🇸📉
• MAG7 & Nasdaq benefit: 49%+ offshore revenue 🖥️🌐
• S&P 500 and Russell 2000 lag

🏢 Sibanye-Stillwater* Diversifies
• Buys US recycling business ♻️
• Adds silver, copper, and skills 🪙🔧
• Expands beyond PGMs and gold

🪙 Voltara & PGMs Running Hot
• Valterra Platinum update reflects flood damage & weak past PGM prices 🌊
• But platinum & palladium now breaking resistance levels 📈🔥

🏬 Hyprop’s Bid for MAS PLC
• Cash or shares deal (R24 or Hyprop stock) 💰
• Hyprop focuses on Western Cape & Eastern Europe 🏖️🌍
• Deal may not be in MAS shareholders’ best interest ❓

🪨 Afrimat: Value at R45?
• Price on long-term support line 📉🧱
• Concerns: iron ore, Lafarge deal, site near Mozambique 🇲🇿
• Van Heerden’s track record solid 💼💪
• Forward PE ~11, below decade mean 🔍

🧪 New ETF Database (Beta)
• Search by issuer, classification, TER & more 🔍📊
• Explore at justonelap.com/etfdatabase 🧱📂
• Feedback welcome!

📜 SA Budget Drama
• Multi-party politics = budget complexity 🧠
• Education budget almost derailed ❗

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙 This Week in Markets:
US inflation ticks higher 📈, putting pressure on rate cuts. Powell's in no rush. Local rates also due end-July.

🏘 China Housing Trouble:
3 years of negative home price growth in China 🇨🇳. Citizens frustrated as property values slide. Evergrande and other ghosts still haunt.

Chinese Home prices Year-on-Year | June 2025

🚀 Elon Watch:
Musk injects $2B into XAI 🤖. Deck chairs shuffled? Investors seem to approve.

🔩 PGMs Shine:
Platinum and palladium break higher ⚪, supported by tightening supply. Miners like Sibanye*, Implats, and Northam bask in the glow.

💻 Nvidia Milestone:
First $4 trillion company 🤯. AI + autonomous driving = future. Trump eases chip restrictions.

📦 Copper Tariffs:
Trump proposes 50% import tariffs on copper 🔧. Could spark domestic production—or not.

📉 Gold & Oil:
Gold drifts within range 🪙. Oil facing resistance again 🛢, needs a breakout above $77 to excite bulls.

₿ Bitcoin Treasury Companies:
Why buy MicroStrategy at a premium when you can just buy Bitcoin? 🤷‍♂️ Financial engineering vs. logic.
📊 Strategy (ex-MicroStrategy) holds 600,000+ BTC.
🇿🇦 Altvest has one BTC—also in the mix.

🏛 Crypto Legislation:
US considers classifying crypto as a commodity 🪙, stablecoins gaining traction. It’s Bitcoin Week at the White House. 🇺🇸

💸 ZAR & Tariffs:
Rand weakened after US slaps 30% tariffs on SA imports ⚠️. Trump’s unpredictability rattles markets.

🧠 Coming Soon on Power Hour:
📅 August: Moxima Gama on advanced charting
📅 November: Keillen Ndlovu on REITs (local & offshore)

🧭 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shift, the global money app 💳
🌍 Travel | 💱 Forex | 🛒 Spend | 📈 Invest — All in your hand.

🎧 Leave a rating and review — every bit helps!
📢 Back next week with more market insights.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Simon’s on holiday in sunny Durban 🌞 but couldn’t resist diving into what might be Trump’s grand economic plan. On the surface, it’s tariffs, spending cuts and tax breaks—but is there real strategy underneath the chaos?

🔹 Trump’s Big Idea: Use tariffs to raise revenue and onshore manufacturing 🏭
🔹 Debt Drama: US debt now > $30 trillion 😬
🔹 Tariffs Everywhere: South Africa slapped with 30%—and so is everyone else 🌍
🔹 Reshoring & Inflation: Could higher costs push inflation up again? 💸🔥
🔹 No Deals Signed: 90 deals in 90 days? 0 delivered 🤷‍♂️
🔹 Foreign Policy Fallout: NATO, Mexico, Canada—strained relationships 🌐💥
🔹 Cut Spending: USAID, EV subsidies, and soft power eroded 🚫🌱
🔹 Regulation Rollback: Less red tape, but also less consumer/environmental protection 🧾♻️
🔹 Crypto & Energy: Deregulate crypto, cozy up to OPEC for cheap oil ⛽🪙
🔹 Mar-a-Lago Accord?: A currency + Treasury buying pact that needs allies—who aren't coming 🤝❌
🔹 Immigration & Performance Politics: Headlines vs. actual impact 🛂📺

💬 There’s a thread of logic, but execution has been clumsy at best. Allies alienated, deals undelivered. The endgame? Likely messy and inflationary.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

The Year So Far 📈

• Market returns in 2025 tell a story of extreme volatility rather than predictable trends.

• The US 10-year yield spiked above 4.5%, shaking confidence before Trump walked back tariffs.

Trump’s Second Term 🏛️

• Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China, and NATO tensions triggered waves of uncertainty.

• A 90-day tariff pause ends soon—more volatility ahead.

Currency Moves 💱

• The rand hit R19.90/$ in April but has strengthened nearly 7% year to date.

• Dollar weakness is driving big shifts—its worst start to a year in 50 years!

Commodities on Fire 🔥

• Platinum: +52%, hitting 10-year highs

• Gold: +27%, buoyed by central banks diversifying away from dollars

• Copper, rhodium, uranium also strong, while coal and Brent oil are lagging

Equities: Winners & Losers 📊
Top Performers:

• Sibanye Stillwater* +115% 🚀

• Northam, Impala, Harmony riding the PGM boom

• Surprise: MTN +58%, defying telco sceptics

• British American Tobacco at record rand highs

Strugglers:

• Aspen -27% 🩺

• Spar, Mr Price* correcting after big runs

• Sasol, despite the headlines, down just 5%

Global Markets Snapshot 🌐

• European indices are up double digits (Germany +20%, Spain +21%)

• Canada bounced +8.5% from April lows

• Hong Kong +20% as Asia joins the rally

• SA market in ZAR: +30% YTD, outpacing gold and the Nasdaq

Key Lessons 🎓

• Volatility is a feature, not a bug.

• When markets “go on sale,” don’t panic—buy like you would discounted chuckles.

• Politicians worldwide are unpredictable—stay focused on your long-term plan.

The Dollar Story 💵

• Dollar Index fell from 110 to 96 in six months.

• Capital is rotating to Europe and emerging markets.

• The tariff-driven isolationism in the US is reshaping global flows.

🗓️ Upcoming Event

Power Hour – 21 July (Monday)
Topic: Three Decades of Investment & Trading Lessons with Simon Brown
🔗 Register at JustOneLap.com/events

📈 More Resources

• Full ETF performance update dropping Thursday:
  justonelap.com/ETFs

• Read Simon’s market insights anytime on JustOneLap

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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💸 Know Your Fees: Effective Annual Cost (EAC)

• Not all fees are created equal — EAC is the real number to watch.

• Applies to retirement products, LISPs, and unit trusts — not to stockbrokers.

• 📊 Understand the difference:

  • TER (Total Expense Ratio)

  • TIC (Total Investment Cost)

  • EAC (includes platform + advisor + product fees)

• 🍏🍏 Apples-to-apples: Compare funds using EAC.

• 🎯 Target an EAC between 1.1%–1.5%.

• 💬 Negotiate! Advisor and platform fees are often flexible.

• 🔍 Beware: Some brokers refuse to give the number — that’s a red flag.

• ❗ Platform fees: Flat > Percentage. Otherwise, your 1% could become R100,000 in fees!

🛢️ Oil Wipeout & Geopolitics

• Weekend U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites 🔥 led to… a shrug from the oil market.

• 📈 Oil hit $81.40 early Monday, then crashed to $67.70 by Wednesday.

• That’s a $14 drop, nearly 20% down — massive.

• 🌍 Global market awash with oil:

  • 🇻🇪 Venezuela, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇷🇺 Russia all pumping through sanctions

  • ⛽ OPEC+ supply increases kicking in soon

• ⛴️ Straits of Hormuz risk overstated — markets unconvinced

• 📉 Oil heading to $60? Possibly.

⚙️ Sasol: Much Ouch

• ❌ Not a fan of Sasol — never been on that bus

• 📉 Sasol collapsed this week: down 14–15% Tuesday

• Currently hovering at R96, with support around R77

• 🧪 Chemicals weak, oil down, Rand strong = triple whammy

• ⚠️ Not going bust, but it’s in real pain

💱 Rand Rollercoaster

• 💵 USD/ZAR down from 18.15 to 17.76

• 🔻 Dollar weakness a key driver

• 🎯 R17 still very much in play

• 😬 Strong Rand not helping exporters like Sassol

🏦 Fed Watch: FOMC & Powell

• 🕊️ No rate change last week, as expected

• 📣 Powell grilled by Congress — MAGA heat incoming

• 📉 Fed still guiding for two cuts in 2025

• Data outlook softening:

  • 🏭 GDP ↓

  • 📈 Inflation ↑

  • 👷 Unemployment ↑

• 🧠 Powell's just doing his job — not playing politics

• SA’s MPC, on the other hand… maybe a bit behind the curve

⚗️ PGMs: Shiny Again?

• 💬 Chat with Old Mutual: rotating out of gold, into PGMs

• 🔼 Platinum at 10-year highs, last seen in Oct 2014

• 🇿🇼 🇿🇦 Platinum from Southern Africa; 🇨🇦 🇷🇺 Palladium elsewhere

• 📦 Stockpiles, especially palladium, still working through

• 🚗 EVs: Now only expected to be 40% of sales by 2035

  • Existential crisis for PGMs? Delayed… for now

• 🧊 Recycling paused — not worth it at these prices

• 🥇 Pick your poison: Impala, Northam, Sibanye Stillwater*…

  • 📦 Sibanye with PGMs, palladium & gold exposure

🪙 Gold: Still Glowing

• 🧲 Pullback to support around R3,330/g

• Could go as low as R3,200 — but not rolling over

• 💡 Structural shift in how investors (especially in developed markets) view gold

• 🛡️ Post-2022 shift: Central banks hedging against future sanctions with more gold

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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This week, Simon Brown unpacks the numbers behind a recovering South African consumer, an attractive new renewable energy listing, and the latest moves in platinum group metals (PGMs). Plus, CrowdStrike’s results, Omnia’s cash pile (and SARS headache), and what falling bond yields mean for SA.

In this episode:

• 📈 Retail recovery? Results from Mr Price* and TFG* show H2 improvement — are SA consumers finally catching a break?

• 🌱 Greencoat Renewables (JSE: GRP) lands on the JSE with a juicy ±9% dividend yield. Should you be bidding?

• 💰 Omnia shines with strong mining & agri numbers, plus another special dividend — but SARS looms.

• 🪙 PGMs on the move: Platinum breaks out, rhodium recovers — which miner is best placed to benefit?

• 🔐 CrowdStrike* delivers solid results, but share dilution raises eyebrows. Is it still a long-term cybersecurity winner?

• 💸 Currency & bonds: Rand firms as US dollar weakens and SA bond yields drop. What does it mean for investors?

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Simon has been doing a key note address over the last week and in this weeks podcast he takes a slightly different tack to what he usually presents. This time he is delivery his key note.

He looks back over almost forty years of market crises that he's invested through.

He shares the lessons he learnt, what caused the crisis and what the response was.

This includes; 1987, EM Tigers of 1998, the DotCom bust in 2000, Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9, the 2020 pandemic and finally the 2025 Trump tariff crisis.

• SARB inflation target 🎯
  Inflation remains well below target at 2.8%, raising expectations of a rate cut at Thursday’s MPC meeting. New long-term target could shift to 3%.
  ⏳ Rate cut coming? Market’s betting on 25bps; Simon wants 50bps.
  💡 Lower target = anchored expectations = tamer wage negotiations.

• Peloton (PTON) 🚴‍♂️
  The pandemic darling may be turning a corner with solid free cash flow returning.
  💵 Q3 FY25: $94.6m FCF (vs $10.7m in Q1)
  📉 Stock at $7.50 (down from $170). Risky turnaround, but improving numbers.
  📊 Subscriptions reviving; de-risked but needs deeper digging.

• Gold Power Hour coming 19 June 🪙
  Event: “Know when to hold it, know when to fold it.”
  📆 19 June with Standard Bank
  📈 Gold had its highest ever weekly close – bullish candles and all.

• Rand strength 💪🇿🇦
  ZAR gaining momentum: from 19.90 to 17.88.
  🌍 Dollar index weakening, Trump tariff noise not shaking markets – yet.
  🔮 Simon sees 16.80 as possible ahead.

• USDZAR 27 May 2025 | weekly chart

  Trump tariffs whiplash 🇺🇸🌀
  🗓 Flip-flops on 50% EU tariffs: delay to June? Or back to July 9?
  🎭 Oval Office ambush with Ramaphosa. No real surprises.
  📉 Market's still waiting for an actual deal – not just handshakes.

• Renegen* (REN) & ASP Isotopes (ASPI) 🧪
  🚨 Renegen deal: 1 share of ASP gets ~0.09 of REN.
  🛑 Simon holding Renegen for Phase 2 helium – not keen on ASP.
  💰 Nasdaq listing delays = funding delays.

• Sasol (SOL) ⚖️
  💸 Transnet drops appeal, SOL gets R4bn court award.
  📈 Stock rally confirmed – chart looking better, Brent still a drag.
  🛢 Oil remains the key driver.

• Pick n Pay (PIK) 🛒
  📉 Still losing money, but less than before.
  👷 Sean Summers’ contract extended to 2028. Break-even delayed.
  💰 Boxer + R4bn cash > market cap = value if turnaround succeeds.
  🚧 Market says: “We don't believe it. Yet.”

• Nampak (NPK) 📦
  ✅ Another slow but steady turnaround.
  📊 Results not amazing but consumer headwinds easing.

• Altron (AEL) 🚗📡
  📈 Strong Netstar performance. Solid accounting tailwinds coming.
  💬 Simon: “One of the few real turnaround wins.”
  🧠 Potential still there – analyst upbeat.

• Harmony (HAR) + Copper 🇦🇺🔧
  💰 Buying Aussie copper mine for $1bn – diversifying away from gold.
  ⚖️ Adds immediate copper cash flow = de-risked future.
  🔌 Copper demand = chips, EVs, energy. Chart still flat for now.

• PGMs: Platinum & Palladium 💿
  🔁 Trading in long-term ranges (R830–R1100).
  📉 Not breaking out yet; charts uninspiring.
  📦 Stockpiles still working through post-Russia invasion.
  📉 EV transition and reduced supply in focus.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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