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JSE Direct with Simon Brown

Weekly podcast hosted by Simon Brown covering the JSE and listed companies.
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Now displaying: January, 2021
Jan 28, 2021

Upcoming events;


GameStop perfect craziness

Three things came together to push this stock up +20x in a week;

  • Massive short position
  • Option buying
  • Markets love stories

Simon dissects the three explains how it all played out and why it is perfectly legal.

[caption id="attachment_24640" align="aligncenter" width="678"]GameStop daily chart GameStop daily chart[/caption]


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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.


 

Jan 25, 2021

Offshore

/ Netflix results

/ Weak IBM results

/ Tesla results this week

/ US GDP (4th quarter)

/ Federal Reserve rate statement on Thursday

/ Procter & Gamble solid results & increasing buy backs by $2billion to $18billion

Local

/ Chris Griffith Kumba ==> Anglo Plat ==> now Goldfields

/ BAW selling motor division for R947m

/ MPC no surprise but vote was 3-2, with 2 for a hike.

/ Redefine to pass on 2020 dividend

/ Strong Richemont update

Jan 20, 2021

Simon Shares

  • Trading updates from Truworths (JSE code: TRU) and Foschini (JSE code: TFG) both saw sales decrease for the period ending both saw sales down. But not down as much as expected and hence the stocks went wild. Truworths was up some 25% in two days. More than anything this is because expectations were dire. That said I'm not convinced, the lockdown was increased post the period end and as mentioned, sales and HEPS are expected to be down. We'll get more retail updates and over the following two weeks, with Pick n Pay the exception - they don't issues sales trading updates.
  • On Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK), they announced that after eight-years CEO Richard Brasher will be stepping down after a solid turn around in the company.
  • Local CPI came in at 3.1% for December leaving 2020 at 3.3%, the lowest since 2004 (1.4%) and 1969 (3.0%). The MPC will announce he repo rate Thursday, no change expected and with growth under pressure (load shedding, new lockdowns and late vaccine) I don't any increases in 2021

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It's all lies

All of it. Politicians, corporates, marketers. The whole lot. So we need to be extra cautious whenever we hear anything an ask the questions. Ask why they say that? Ask the likelihood of it being provable and how the lie benefits them? Ask what's missing, and why is it missing?

Let's be clear, Trump has emboldened liars like nobody before him. But this is not new. Politicians lie all the time, most promising things that they're unable or worse, unwilling, to actually deliver on. But we've entered a new level whereby when lies are challenged they are deflected not with truth but more lies or the truth is called 'fake news'.

For investors, we also have a bunch of lying happening.

My favourite trick is that before I read a set of results I head to the previous one or two sets and maybe even an annual report and read their forward-looking statement and review of the period. This quickly gives you a sense of which CEOs are honest and which are just fluffing it until their next bonus.

Accounts are themselves not directly lies, but they're also not 100% truth. There are assumptions made at many turns in a set of results.

  • Some like Steinhoff we now know were all lies and I avoided that because of the complexity and that's an important point.
  • Tongaat was a hard one to spot, but the red flag (in hindsight but useful for the future) is when the company gets to 'value' assets.
  • African Bank we could spot because earnings were increasing but dividends were not. So no cash was being made from the higher earnings.

Common amongst all three? Very strong CEO who ruled with an iron fist.


JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.


 

Jan 18, 2021

Offshore

/ Biden starts Wednesday, already has $1.9trillion stimulus plan

/ Japanese market at 3-decade highs

/ Chinese GDP +2.3% for 2020

/ Rhodium above $20k

/ US won’t ban investing into Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu

/ JPMorgan results knock it out of the park

Local

/ Brasher exits Pick n Pay

/ Murray & Roberts OZ contract

/ Truworths trading update

/ J&J vaccine details expected this week, good news for Aspen

/ Load shedding returns

/ MPC on Thursday

Jan 13, 2021

2021 predictions show

Every year Marc AshtonKeith McLachlan and Simon Brown do a predictions show. Three wild and woolly predictions for the markets followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead.

Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year's predictions and you’ll find the 2020 predictions show here.


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The 2021 predictions are (listen for reasoning);

Marc Ashton

  • Not more than 10% of SA population (6million) vaccinated during 2021
  • Gold close 2021 +$2k
  • Ford & GM out preform Tesla
  • Top40 ~ green
  • ZAR ~ stronger

Keith McLachlan

  • Resi10 in $ will beat Nasdaq
  • US ten year real yield (less inflation) will be negative
  • Eastern Cape house price inflation will beat Gauteng
  • Top40 ~ green
  • ZAR ~ stronger

Simon Brown

  • Russel 2000 beats S&P500
  • Resi10 beats Fini15 & Indi25
  • No US or ZA rate increases this year
  • Top40 ~ green
  • ZAR ~ stronger

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

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