Info

JSE Direct with Simon Brown

Weekly podcast hosted by Simon Brown covering the JSE and listed companies.
RSS Feed Subscribe in Apple Podcasts
JSE Direct with Simon Brown
2021
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2020
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2019
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2018
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2017
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2016
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2015
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


All Episodes
Archives
Now displaying: April, 2017
Apr 26, 2017

Simon Shares

  • Purple (JSE code: PPE) who own Easy Equities had a very rough set results and as they comment in the commentary they need a capital injection. What does tihs mean for the business and clients?

<script>

  • Listed property or buy-to-let Power Hour was great, packed wth tons of details and the spreadsheet so you can crunch your own numbers.
  • Kering results showed very strong growth for their luxury brands in Asia Pacific and this has spurred Richemont* (JSE code: CFR) higher. Details; Gucci +48% vs consensus +21%, Bottega Veneta +2% vs consensus -4%, Saint Laurent +33% vs consensus +19%.
  • Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) is loving the French election first round results.
  • Upcoming events

* I hold ungeared positions.

Trading multiple systems

How to manage trading different systems? I trade three system with ALSI futures and I manage it by having a primary system that takes precedence over the other two, otherwise I could end up short and long at the same time. Alternatively trade different products (add FX to the mix and trade different crosses). Another option is one trading system but different products or markets.


JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Apr 19, 2017

Simon Shares

  • UK snap election for 8 June and French first round presidential elections this Sunday.
  • Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results looking decent but stock remains expensive.
  • Combined Motor Holdings (JSE code: CMH), amazing results in a tough space. Top management and solid balance sheet.
  • World Bank cuts our 2017 growth target from their original 1.1% to 0.6%, after cabinet reshuffle and subsequent downgrades.

How we hurt our trading

Message from a trading friend;

"I think the true art of trading is learning to be completely satisfied with your own objectives. Rather than constantly worrying about what could have been if ..."

Trading is simple. Buy when the chart says buy, sell when it says sell and sit on your hands in-between. But we over think it, we believe in complexity and this hurts us.

I did not go short over the long weekend because, well politicians. I decide that I needed a new rule about 4 day weekends, do not hold over them? In truth I have been trading my ALSI systems all through recent recalls and shuffles and it had one of it's best runs on recent years for March with a very good April thus far. So why the sudden decision to change rules re long weekends? And what about three day weekends, will they in time also be bad? Normal two day weekends and eventually overnight holding?

We Get Mail

  • Jan-Albert
    • I would like to pick your brain about the big "nationalising" of banks and mines. If nationalisation is on the cards we all lose? Or do we? Or is it hot air? You would also be out of a job? Or would you? Questions everywhere and I have no answers.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Apr 12, 2017

Simon Shares

* I hold ungeared positions.

Capitec* - should we worry?

Lots of concern abut rising bad debts and how this will impact Capitec.

They identify three risks; market, credit & business. Rescheduling is a risk that concerns many but Capitec defends it in being better business and they have over 200% provisions on arrears and they are well ahead of Basel 3 2019 requirements. Further when they reschedule a loan they increase provisions against non payment. They have been declining more loans and have been tightening credit granting criteria since April 2015 and now 92% of the value of a loan is provided for when three instalments are missed. In short they are obsessive about managing risk. That said tougher economic conditions, credit card and longer term loans do add to risk and they will likely see bad debts increasing. But they are not going to do an African Bank.

Longer term they're earning more from non interest but this will take a long time to become significant against loan profits.

The annual report is due later this month and will be online here.

I had an aggressive R720 buy price, but that was before shuffles and downgrades and with growth likely to be hit post all the noise R620 is my safer buy price.

We Get Mail

  • Mkululi
    • The question is in February the end/beginning of government year. The money I contributed which was pulled on the night of 28Feb2017, which financial year does it belong to? last year/this year.
  • Jonathon
    • I just watched the "lazy trading system explained" video and I had one question. In the risk management section you, Simon, talk about initial and secondary entry points to invest your 25% in 12.5% blocks however I was unclear as what qualifies as a secondary entry. Is the secondary entry point the next time both the primary and secondary triggers occur following the first investment?
  • Alexander

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Apr 5, 2017

Down we go

Standard and Poors downgraded our offshore foreign debt, not ZAR debt. This is about 10% of total SA debt. Technically we're not junk as that requires two agencies to rate us junk. But all said this is bad and expected and our portfolios should have been ready and waiting.

It took countries like Uruguay, Croatia, Ireland etc. on average 7 years to regain their investment grade status after falling to junk! Columbia took 12 years and over the last 19 years, S&P has downgraded 23 countries to junk status, of those only 6 recovered, shortest recovery time was 5 years.

How does it hurt? Debt costs for the country go up, so higher taxes and less government spending. Interest rates higher and rand weaker putting pressure on the middle class. Poor will be hurt with real damage is done to the middle class.


JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

 
1