Info

JSE Direct with Simon Brown

Weekly podcast hosted by Simon Brown covering the JSE and listed companies.
RSS Feed Subscribe in Apple Podcasts
JSE Direct with Simon Brown
2021
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2020
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2019
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2018
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2017
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2016
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2015
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


All Episodes
Archives
Now displaying: November, 2017
Nov 29, 2017

Simon Shares

  • More downgrades as S&P Globals makes our local debt junk as well to go with Fitch. Moody's gave us 90 days which takes us to just after the February budget and if they drop us then we full on 100% junk, AKA Brazilian.
  • The Rand is powering ahead trading in the R13.60's against US$. My call for a stronger Rand remains in force. Slowly but surely.
  • The latest Long4Life* (JSE code: L4L) deal is a perfect fit with the Gauteng based contract bottler they are also buying. I like the share at these lower prices.
  • Yearend portfolio clean up is coming up and the one I eyeing is Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) in my second tier portfolio. I sold most back when Nene was fired keeping a few and they have pretty much halved since then. Checking my notes from when I sold my plan was to monitor and sell if I saw weakness. Well we got the weakness, but I didn't sell. Now I could hold them on a prayer - but I'd rather just bin them.
  • I've been writing my yearend columns for FinWeek looking into 2018 events and stocks. They'll be out Next Friday and I'll share some in the podcast in the weeks ahead.
  • Sygnia Itrix 4th Industrial Revolution Global Equity ETF (SYG4IR) lists next week.
  • ETF winners for the year, what's RHO?
  • Up coming events;

I hold ungeared positions.

Trading buddies

Trading is often very lonely, sure there's the people on Twitter or WhatsApp group you chat to - but mostly that's wild and wooly and not really any support. Your friends and partner are likely not much help either as frankly they don't truly get what you do or the pressures involved.

So we need a trading buddy, not just to keep us sane - but also to keep us honest and help us when we need it. we can use them to vent as required but even more importantly we give them access to our trading account for two reasons.

  • Firstly they check our trades and make sure we're trading as we say we do. Keeping to the system and staying honest.
  • Secondly they can get us into or out of trades when we're not able to.

The real hard part is finding this trading buddy. Check around your circle of friends, try Twitter and other forums and be very selective when choosing.

We Get Mail

  • Anne
    • Why when I look at the daily chart of an ETF does it jump all over the place?


JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Nov 22, 2017

Simon Shares

I hold ungeared positions.

Stop faffing, start trading

I want to aim this mostly at the newbie traders. Those who've been flirting with the idea of trading for ages. Maybe you've tried your hand at it but failed or perhaps you haven't dipped your toe into the water as yet.

Trading is not hard, the psychology is hard, but there are ways to deal with that.

First find a strategy you think makes sense, then start working on it. Test it with hundreds of back tested paper trades. Tweak as required and test again, rinse and repeat until you have something that seems to have a profitable edge. This may take you weeks of manual work - that's fine.

Then when you have something that seems to work, start with a small amount of money. Small as this will help reduce the stress.

Set the rules and risk management and get trading. Track your performance, your perfect trades and keep a journal. Importantly change NOTHING about the system. Ideally you should trade the exact same system for the entire 2018. If it is losing money badly, then your testing was bad. But by the end of 2018 you'll ideally have a working trading strategy and you can start increasing the portfolio size.

Point is start and have modest expectations. Aim to break even in year one - that's winning.

Online resources;

We Get Mail

  • Ivor
    • Why do so many large cap companies not make it into the Top40? (Glencore, South32, Amplats, Hammerson, NEPI, Kumba, Resillent & Capco).

 

Nov 15, 2017

Simon Shares

  • Zimbabwean coup, or not coup or whatever. People are all asking me what's the best investment thesis here. There isn't one, a coup is not great for an economy. A democratic functioning state is what is good for investments.
  • My comments last week about large M&A activity seldom working promoted a number of responses about successful deals - but all were private (not listed). This makes sense, no hype, no over paying. Just good old fashioned due diligence and right price paid.
  • Consolidated Infrastructure Group (JSE code; CIL) update and delayed results is a massive mess. Third update and this one says we simple don't know how bad things will be nor if previous results are sound. Major management failure both to communicate to market and to manage the company.
  • Spar (JSE code: SPP) results show revenue up 5.4% while operating costs increased 19.2%. Not good at all. Switzerland seems to be coming right, Ireland not and South Africa is tough.
  • Netcare (JSE code: NTC) trading update is all about their UK BMI Healthcare business and it's all bad news. Another large offshore deal gone all frot?
  • South African bond issue on Tuesday at largest ever (R3,3bn vs. R2.75bn) and over subscribed 3x. But at 0.75% higher rates and maturing between 2031 and 2048. Compound that cost to our economy.
  • Survey results are out.
  • Up coming events;

I hold ungeared positions.

When it's time to panic

My grandfather introduced me to markets in the 80's and one of his key sayings was "when it's time to panic, panic fast".

When bad news breaks (yes we looking at you CIL) and a stock crashes the immediate response is that it's too late to do anything. Maybe, but often times the will be continued weakness because news and response is not instant. It takes time for everybody to respond. The bigger issue is if the news markedly changes a view and saying the damage is done is not an answer.

This is especially true if the issue is management related and also in cyclical and small/mid cap stocks.

Importantly I am not talking about panicking when the market crashes. This is about exiting a stock forever and moving on until it proves its bonafides again. Selling crashes is nice in theory but never works. Stocks are different because they can go to zero worse case or spend years, decades, forever languishing around little or nothing.



JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Nov 8, 2017

Simon Shares

  • More highs locally and global for markets. And of course that makes everybody worried and certain we're about to crash. Well we will most definitely crash, just nobody (and I mean nobody) knows when. So as always ignore the doomsayers.
  • Tencent buys a 10% stake in Snap, a clever deal as it gets them into the US market. It also means we now all own some Snap via any Top40 ETF we have with Naspers (JSE code: NPN) in it.
  • Purple Group (JSE code: PPE) results were rough. Ignoring a write down of Real People, GT24/7 made a sliver of profit, Emperor is losing AUM hand over fist while EasyEquities continues loses. With almost 60k users the burn rate for EasyEquities is about R3m a month with revenue of some R800k a month. That's a large gap that needs a lot more customers to close. They do however have the money from Sanlam that tides them over for the next 3 years while they try turn the low cost idea into profits.
  • Steinhoff (JSE code SNH) is back in the bad news on reports that it hid US1billion worth of related party deals. This company has a lot of smoke around for an innocent company.
  • Sasfin (JSE code: SFN) has a price-to-book (PB) of around 1x and that is always a buy signal for the stock. Ungeared and hold until PB is 1.4x or higher, about 12-18 months typically. You'll get NAV uplift, dividends and the price gain above NAV.
  • I have sold my Tongaat (JSE code: TON) shares. The latest update showed that even with returning rain we're not seeing the profits from sugar, so my thesis was right (rain) but with no profit to show for it I bailed.
  • Help us help you, do our six minute user survey.
  • 4 New ETFs from Sygnia.
  • Up coming events;

I hold ungeared positions.

Too big to work (AKA big deals suck)

Brait (JSE code: BAT) has valued their UK New Look business at zero. They paid R37billion just under two years ago. Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) and Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) both struggling with big deals and now Firstrand (JSE code: FSR) spending some R20billion buying Aldermore.

How many big deal really work? Sure they work eventually, but at what cost and never as management promised.

I suspect it has two key problem. Firstly they buyer typically over pays in their eagerness to get the assets, this is especially true when the target is listed and the premium has to be agreed on by shareholders and is hence usually 20%-30% or more. Secondly merging two business is never easy. Some easy wins such as centralised costs like HR can be lowered, but actually extracting value a lot harder. The third of course is the ego of management. Who wants to be boss of some regional business when you can be a global titan over seeing a vast network of losses?

My memory says very few ever work very well. Have you got some examples of large deals working? SABMiller worked, BHPBilliton* (JSE code: BIL) worked. Any others?

We Get Mail

  • Peter
    • I see that some of the Satrix products are offered as either ETFs or unit trusts. What would compel me to purchase via a unit trust rather than an ETF for something basically the same?


JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Nov 1, 2017

Simon Shares

  • Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) results were nasty. Local was weak but the real issue is the UK GBP purchase that cost a bunch and is not performing.
  • Long4Life (JSE code: L4L) is now 510c as I record. Nice price and a lesson that we must never chase stocks.
  • Sasfin (JSE code: SFN) has a price-to-book (PB) of around 1x and that is always a buy signal for the stock. Ungeared and hold until PB is 1.4x or higher, about 12-18 months typically. You'll get NAV uplift, dividends and the price gain above NAV.
  • Clicks (JSE code: CLS) are a master class in how a set of results should look if the company really is firing on all cylinders. Revenue +10.9%, HEPS +14.5% and the dividend +18.4%.
  • The Traders Life three part series with IG is online.
  • Up coming events;

I hold ungeared positions.

How important is your trading system?

Your trading system is one of the least important parts of a successful traders arsenal. Yes you need one and yes it need to be profitable. But it is not what is going to make you the money. That will be your discipline, your money and risk management - this is your trading edge.

So stop trying to find the best system in the world. Stop tweaking your system every tine it loses some money and stop jumping from one system to another.

Find a system that makes money, test it and learn to trust it. Become the absolute pro at the system and then trade it; unemotionally and with discipline.

We Get Mail

  • Ron
    • I want to buy Tech stocks (eg Alphabet, Amazon, FB, Apple, Tesla ...) and get a little Biotech exposure using an off-shore account. I'd prefer an ETF than individual stocks.

=========


JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

1