Simon Shares

• Bidcorp - excellent
• AvdTech* - really good, stock at all-time highs
• Stadio - good student growth
• Motus - poor HEPS, good dividend
• Woolies* - not bad, but wow only got R1.1billion for David Jones
• Sasol - impairments galore
• Adcock Ingram - capacity utilisation is weak
• Aspen - good second half
• KAP - tough out there
• Super Group - strong numbers

* I hold ungeared positions.

dd

Spur and Calgro M3, two stocks I have been watching and both have seen their prices break higher.

• Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) builds lower income housing and after a few troube years os back on track.
  • Latest results were for year ending February 2023.
  • PE ±2.5%
  • Cash on hand ±R172million, market cap is ±R440million
  • NAV 951c (including unused land valued at ±30% of NAV) while share price 365c

• Spur (JSE code: SUR) sells fast casual food and the pandemc hurt. Latest results have some base effect as they are for six months ending June 2023.
  • Forward PE ±5x
  • Dividend yield ±14%
  • Spur remains their key brand.

Simon Shares

• Thungela (JSE code: TGA) results saw HEPS down 67% which is the same as the price of coal over the last year.
• UBS cuts China's GDP growth forecast for 2023 from 5.2% to 4.8%
• CoreShares ETFs name change to 10X.
• Local inflation for July was 4.7%, a really strong number and better then the market expected, this even as administrative prices kicked in during July. Transport was negative for the period.

Charts by Koyfin 15% discount for first 2 years

China in trouble as economic data keeps on disappointing?

Chinese data keeps disappointing, every since the -7.5% export data from April. Expected was a strong rebound after they lifted zero-covid restrictions. But not happening.

Just this week;

• Among 70 Chinese cities, 49 saw a fall in new home prices month-on-month in July from 38 cities the previous month.
• China suspends youth unemployment data after record high.
• Over the last decade they’ve halved the number of indicators they publish.
• Retail sales lower
• Industrial production lower
• fixed asset investments lower

Simon Shares

•  MTN (JSE code: MTN) results had an interesting update on their fintech business. reports were they would list it, but for now Mastercard has taken a stake valuing the business at ±R100billion while MTN market cap is ±R250billion.
• Satrix is shutting down three of the ETFs they got from Absa. They are the Volatility Managed ETFs. They two small and not core to teh Satrix startegy. If you hold them on close 29 September you'll be paid out the NAV. The three are;
  • STXMEQ
  • STXDEQ
  • STXGEQ
• Buying the Nasdaq local or offshore? Which is better?
• Every time is actually different
• How to double your retirement fund

Koyfin 15% discount for first 2 years

Aspen looking cheap?

Aspen (JSE code: APN) announces a acquisition in Latin America for US$290m on a price/sales of ±3x and PE of ±5x. This is a classic Stephen Saad sort of deal. Strong cash generation to pay down the debt.

After having gone quiet when the balance sheet case under serious pressure (with debt of ±R50billion) Aspen is back?

Chart looking good for a break higher.

Forward PE of ±12x is below 1 standard deviation over last twenty years and looking cheap.

Charts by KoyFin, click here for 15% off a two year subscription.

Simon Shares

• FOMC raised 0.25% as expected last week. In the press conference Powell suggested no recession coming and with inflation for June at 3% has the fed successfully threaded the inflation needle without any serious repercussions (so far)?
• MTN (JSE code: MTN) trading update, 169c cost for 'currency moves' likely the Nigerian Naira devaluation.
• Prosus (JSE code: PRX) agrees to sell part of PayU to Rapyd for $610m. They’ll keep the Indian market part of the business.
• How is your crypto taxed?
• Nominal vs effective interest rate, know the difference.