Simon Shares

• New energy rules for South Africa. Who wins?
• Silverleaf Investments on Easy Equities. Know what you're buying.
• Food retailer updates, Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) winning. Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) bounding back and Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) struggling.
• Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) and Mr Price (JSE code: MRP) updates show consumers under pressure
• IMF upgrades SA GDP growth for 2022 to 2.3% up from 1.9% they expected in April.
• Results from Kumba Iron Ore (JSE code: KIO) and Anglo Platinum (JSE code: AMS)
• US data Wednesday and Thursday.
• Omnia (JSE code: OMN) was ex-div 800c on Wednesday and is now back in the longer-term channel. If you've been waiting to buy, now's your chance.

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares

• Local June inflation, 7.4%, MPC tomorrow.
• BHP Group* (JSE code: BHG) update, they are worried.
  ArcelorMittal South Africa (JSE code: ACL) trading update says global growth and recessions fears "present challenges for the outlook of commodities and steel demand in the next 12 to 18 months.".
• China's holdings of U.S. debt fell below $1 trillion for the first time since 2010
• Alviva (JSE code: AVV) delisting at 2500c.
• Brent oil trade keeps on trucking, buy below $100 exit $113.

• Brent oil
• Nasdaq, triggered a buy, waiting for confirmation which is a close above 12,250 while 7 EMA remains above 21 EMA.
• Building resilient portfolios for tough markets
• Lithium & Battery Tech ETF
• Stats and data on 95 years of bear markets. How much longer? How much lower?

* I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares

• US June inflation 9.1%, and core inflation was also up a 5.7%!
• Still stage 4. Rand continues to weaken.
• Back backs between 4 July 2022 & 8 July 2022
  • Naspers JSE code: NPN) bought 659,095 shares at an average price of R2 648.3315/share for R1.745 billion (US$104.73 million).
  • Prosus (JSE code: PRX) bought 6,240,339 PRX shares at an average price of €67.1361/share for €418.95 million (US$428.59 million).
• SARB now considers cryptocurrencies as a financial asset and will create regulations around them. This means cryptocurrencies can be listed on SA exchange platforms but the process will take 12-18 months.

Dividends, love them but be careful.

• But we also need to remember a few important things about dividends.
• They can disappear as we saw in 2020. Even the most stable dividend payer can stop paying. REITs which have to pay them by law being a REIT structure) stopped paying because payment would see them fail their solvency tests.
• They are backwards-looking. A high dividend yield is certainly attractive, but is it because the price has been falling? Could this be a warning of a dividend cut?
• Cyclical stocks (think commodity stocks) pay massive dividends sometimes, then nothing for years.
• Boards can change the cover ratio. This is the percentage of HEPS they pay as dividends. In tough times they can cut them. As the company matures they pay more.
• Progressive dividends are the worst. The idea is that every year the dividend goes up a set percentage regardless of profits. A few local stocks have tried the idea, all have abandoned the idea.
• Cash dividend vs. script dividend. I'll usually take the script.

• Reg28, proposed a two-pot system
• Sam Beckbessinger: My fav ETFs

Simon Shares

• Still stage 6. Rand continues to weaken.
• Naspers (JSE code: NPN) and Prosus (JSE code: PRX) both are holding well after the hard run the previous Monday on results and buy-back news.
• Resources under pressure, all of them.
• Supply chains adjusting
  • • Just in time is now just in case
    • Higher inventories
    • Higher costs
    • More localisation

Upcoming events;

• 13 July ~ To short or not to short with Markets.com
• 14 July ~ JSE Power Hour: Building a resilient portfolio for tough markets