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JSE Direct with Simon Brown

Weekly podcast hosted by Simon Brown covering the JSE and listed companies.
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Now displaying: November, 2019
Nov 27, 2019

Simon Shares

  • Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) update is same old same old. Local food doing great, fashion okay and Australia still under pressure with the refurbishments due to end March 2020.
  • Brait (JSE code: BAT) announces a large recapitalisation with a cR5.5billion rights issue at a 27% discount to the share price and about 60% new shares. This is also a massive discount to net asset value (NAV) which is now 3800c and a share price at decade lows. Christo Wiese will not take up his rights, rather Ethos Capital (JSE code: EPE) will and they'll become about a c15% shareholder.
  • Transaction Capital (JSE code: TCP) monster results. Very strong, double digit everything. This was one of the stocks Petri Redelinghuys picked on my Small Cap Portfolio show recently (along with Jubilee Metals (JSE code: JBL)).
  • British American Tobacco (JSE code: BTI) update was good in all areas and margins are growing. They do however warn that e-cigarette sales growth to hit low end of target.
  • Charles Schwab is taking over TD Ameritrade. Not surprising after Schwad cut brokerage to zero, and everybody else was forced to follow suit. It's now a game of size. More clients, more cross selling, more interest turn etc. Bigger is way the way forward for now.
  • Understanding the Krugerrand Custodial Certificate
  • Creating returns in a low growth world
  • Upcoming events;

* I hold ungeared positions.


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It's not ok to just be your best

“It’s not ok to not be the best trader you can be.....it’s NOT OK” Mike Bellafiore

You have to be better than your best. You have to continually be getting better. There is no rest for traders. We have to be always improving. Trading is largely a zero sum game, you have to better than the others.

've often stated that any trader who thinks they have arrived as a trader will swiftly be shown the door by the market. It is a continual process of improvement and caution against believing our own hype.

So, what do you do in order to always be improving? The easy answer is a trading journal that you keep and a constant reviewing of your trades.

  • The journal would include trade details, but also what happened post exit. Your perfect trade score and how the trade felt.
  • It would also include the entry and exit which you'll be able to review. Did you jump too soon? Is this a frequent problem? If so what are you doing about it?
  • Are exits a problem? Taking profits too soon? Ignoring stops? If so what are you doing about it?

For me personally I have a journal and track my perfect trades. But as I also only trade for about 10-15 minutes after the 8.30am futures open, I'll often record my screen while trading and I review these videos.

The review is not only checking to see if my entries were good (exits are either at target or stop so automated and not important for this process). Did I get in timeously? Or late or early?

Am I missing information? I am watching the bids/offers and last trades, so not a lot of data. But I can miss data as I move between screens (trade, orders, chart, depth, etc.).What I find at time is that I take a long trade, for example. And it was right, but as I was entering the trade it switches to neutral or even short and I miss that change.

  • It's almost as if I am rushing, scared of missing out (or paying a higher price). So now I have a process. I set the trade screen. But as I go to click 'trade' I run my eyes over the bids/offers a last time to make sure I am on the right side of the trade.
  • My other problem is I flip between the different screens too much. I really only need to watch the depth and last trade screen (which is same block for my platform). But while waiting I get restless so I am flipping around for no real purpose. The solution here is easy.

Close all the tabs/browsers and also get rid of all other data on my trade screen, except what I need - depth and last trades.

Point is alway be improving. Alway be checking in on yourself. Always be striving to be better every day.

My last point is to always remember that trading is like a high wire trapeze artists without a net or safety harness. We get no second chances. We can do 99 perfect trades and then 1 horrid trade gives it all back. As a trader we need to be 100% all the time. Not 100% in terms of profitable trades. 100% in terms of perfect execution every time. Because one slip and our money pile is back at the beginning, or as a trapeze artist, we a pile of broken bones on the floor.


JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.


 

Nov 20, 2019

Upcoming events;

Ironman your trading

This is an hour long recording of a live event I presented in Cape Town on Tuesday.

The PDF is here.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Nov 13, 2019

Simon Shares

  • SAA retrenchments, a test for the bigger Eskom process?
  • Telkom (JSE code; TKG) to buy CellC? R1 would seem a fair price and would benefit both Blue Label (JSE code: BLU) and Telkom. Rumours that MTN (JSE code: MTN) is also in the running to buy CellC, but I can't see the competition commission allowing that. Of note is that Blue Label have not issued a SENS (Telkom has, but not naming CellC). The reason is that with CellC being written down to zero the deal is not material.
  • Aspen (JSE code: APN) sells Asian operations for Euro400million. This should take the groups debt down to just a little over R30billion and will within debt covenants and manageable.
  • Rebosis (JSE code: REB) failed to declare a dividend in the latest results yet as a REIT it is required to do so by law otherwise they have to pay tax n the profits.
  • The protests in Hong Kong continue on and are getting more violent as the authorities dig in their heels. This is hurting the economy in Hong Kong but I don't see the authorities giving in any time soon. Also remember that after the 1997 handover Hong Kong operates as a "One country, two systems" with China. This expires in 2047 and truthfully nobody knows exactly what that means. But likely China will want Hong Kong to move closer to it and so is not going to back down on the current protests.
  • Good results from Spar (JSE code: SPP) continuing the results trend from Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) and Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) trading update.
  • An update from Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) saying they're still considering listing Pep Europe. But the biggie is they may also do a rights issue to help pay legal fees? Really? Not sure many shareholders would be happy to partake in that waste of money. An yes I still think Steinhoff is heading for zero.
  • Brexit, election on 12 December. Likely Conservatives win, but not guaranteed and will they have a majority or not?
  • Upcoming events;

* I hold ungeared positions.


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Short squeeze (or a long squeeze)

A short squeeze is when a stock surges, usually on some good news - but the surge seems disproportionate to the news.

The theory is that a lot of people were short (had sold the stock to profit from the downside), then the good news sends them all heading for the exits. In order to exit they have to by so you have the positive buyers sending prices higher but you also have the short sellers who're sending the price higher.

This is potentially what we saw on Blue Label on Tuesday when rumours started circulating that they had two potential buyers for CellC.

This is one of the real risks of shorting stocks, you're downside in a short position is unlimited as a stock can go forever.

With options your risk is always only 100% as it is the right wheres other derivatives are the obligation.

One could also see a long squeeze, but this is a phrase I have never heard mentioned before.

This would be when bad news sends a stock crashing as holders of the stock all head for the exits at once, think Steinhoff.

The difference is that short sellers are also short-term in nature. Sure that may be months or even years, but it's never forever whereas as holders could be looking to hold forever.

Also short sellers profit or loss is paid daily whereas long holders losses are only on paper. Real but always a hope of recovery.


JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.


 

Nov 6, 2019

Simon Shares

  • October was a decent month for the Top40, adding almost 3% and now 9.5% year-to-date excluding dividends.
  • Moodys makes us negative but not junk and the ZAR soars.
  • Finance minister, Tito Mboweni, says government 'not considering' the idea of prescribed assets. https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2019-11-05-treasury-not-considering-prescribed-assets-mboweni-says/
  • The Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) update what was way more interesting for the fact that Christo Wiese got voted off the board, until he used his zero economic but voting shares that he tried to sell to Shoprite for some R3billion. The actual update shows SA doing well and importantly we're seeing some inflation while the rest of Africa continues to struggle and the new Xtra Savings Rewards Programme got 1million sign ups in the first week.
  • Afrimat (JSE code: AFT) results knocked it our of the park with their iron ore business (Demaneng) is paying for itself in double quick time.
  • Famous Brands* (JSE code; FBR) results show things still tough, especially in the UK as operating margins get killed. They used to be over 20% and are now hanging onto 11% by a thread.
  • Uber lost another $1billion in one quarter, again due to interest, depreciation and stock based compensation costs. Last quarter they blamed listing costs this time they point out Uber taxi is profitable if it weren't for the costs above and Ubereats lost almost $400million. How does food delivery lose money? What are the costs? At listing Uber aid they may never be profitable, and maybe they were right?
  • ETF blog ~ New CoreShares property ETF (CSPROP).
  • VIDEO: Live trading ALMI price action for 300 points.
  • Upcoming events;

* I hold ungeared positions.


ddd


Goals, processes and habits

Goals need process and process becomes habit and achieves goals

In my trading presentations I always talk about goals and the problem of having a single giant size goal that while desirable is frankly overwhelming. My advice is always to break goals down in small bite size pieces, with one example of those bites always being doing a single perfect trade, followed by another perfect trade, and another and another.

This idea applies to everything we want to achieve in life. Truthfully we have the ability to do almost anything. Almost because doing a marathon in under 2 hours is going to be out of our reach - by an hour. But the goal of doing a first marathon is easy enough, if we break it down. First couch-to-5km, then 10km and so on.

Buy breaking a large goal down into small pieces we're able to achieve as we go along and hence we also make it 100% achievable.

Then as we're going along achieving our smaller goals via processes they fast become habits and soon our goals are done.

I started swimming just over a year ago, my goal was a Midmar Mile which I did back in February in a horror time of 44 minutes. But back then my target time was 48 minutes, so I was chuffed. Now my goal for the 2020 Midmar Mile is under 30 minutes. Hard, very hard. But it breaks down into 4 pool sessions a week and every pool session has it's own goal. Distance or speed or technique. So 4 times a week I wake up eager to try and hit my goal and most weeks I end the week having hit at least 3 sometimes all 4 of my goals.

And slowly I am moving forward.

Important is that I really look forward to and enjoy my training sessions, something that 18 months ago seemed like a crazy idea.

Most important is that is that I structure my process to fit within me. So I do not do early morning training, I train mid morning because that works better for me and hence is easier for me to do. If I was also trying to wake up at 5 to be at the pool by 6, it would be way harder.

So we need to move this into our trading and investing. What's the goal? Large dividend paying portfolio? FIRE? Trading for income? It can be anything but then it has to be broken down into small processes that enable that goal.

  • Example, invest enough to live off investments within ten years?
    • Get family onboard.
    • Cut living expenses. Live small and cheap.
    • Max out tax-free.
    • Buy ETFs.
    • None of these are hard, but all will require effort and work.

Want to be successful trader living off trading income.

  • How much capital do I need? Do I have enough? How do I get enough?
  • Pause, do I even know how to trade?
  • Learn technical analysis and price action.
  • Practise ~ place 1,000 stop losses.
  • Practise ~ enter 1,000 trades.
  • Practise ~ exit 1,000 trades.

What would make a perfect trade? Now do one, and another and another.You now have goals that can be broken down into processes.
You'll also notice that none of this results in overnight success because overnight success takes years.


JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.


 

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