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JSE Direct with Simon Brown

Weekly podcast hosted by Simon Brown covering the JSE and listed companies.
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Now displaying: July, 2017
Jul 26, 2017

Simon Shares

  • PPC (JSE code: PPC) announced departure of CEO and share tanks. This company in serious board room trouble.
  • Kumba (JSE code: KIO) results were decent, dividend was wild (ahead of actual HEPS) as they compensated shareholders for missed dividends! This is odd and asks the question about dividends going forward. Concern is average cash break-even price of US$43/tonne was up from US$29/tonne in the previous period.
  • Long4Life (JSE code: L4L) runs to 838c then announces confirmed deal for Holdsport (JSE code: HSP) at slightly higher ratio (was 10.44 L4L for every HSP, now 12.1) and share down to 600c. Starts to get interesting another 50c lower.
  • Upcoming events

The market vs. the economy

On Tuesday the Top40 was trading at the high for 2017 (and again on Wednesday) and when I tweeted the fact the replies were mostly about how the market is wrong. Look at unemployment, Guptas, recession, down grades etc. they all shouted. None of the is wrong, but is it relevant?

Firstly we've had a three year +/-30% correction in time. But as importantly the market is not the local economy with listed companies earning a lot beyond our boarders and mostly the better stocks in the index as loser are tossed out. Lastly and perhaps most importantly the market looks head 12-18 months. With rates coming down, Zuma out in the new year and his preferred choice struggling 2018 looks way better for South Africa than many a recent year.

So if we're looking to the seed half of 2018 then the future s brighter, and sure this may be relative, but brighter surely means higher for the market?


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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Jul 19, 2017

Simon Shares

  • Finally, 5 weeks after moving my FTTH has been installed so I am going to Periscope each recording as it happens which is typically Wednesday afternoon. https://www.pscp.tv/SimonPB/
  • Retail trading updates coming in and as expected they are mostly bleak, but we are seeing the impact of the rains mostly returning.
  • Netflix is a monster, over 100million customers world wide.
  • Long4Life is buying; Holdsport and Sorbet.
  • Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) raises R12bn (Euro800million) in Europe with a 7.5 year bond at 1.875%.
  • Upcoming events

Is the fees battle over?

Last week I spoke about the price war in ETFs. But do fees still matter?

For the passive market fees are surely at point where they almost don't matter. Sure they can go lower but we're talking most local ETFs now nicely below a 0.5% TER ratio while the offshore are slightly above 0.5%. Don't get me wrong, every 0.1% makes a difference, but on R100k that's R100. Not nothing but not the difference between retiring or not.

I still look at VOO with a TER of 0.04%, but we're never going to get that low (they're a mutual company and owned by the fund holders and have massive scale we'll never see in South Africa).

Admin fees, once a silent killer have also disappeared at some brokers where a simple ETF or tax-free account has zero admin fees.

Transaction fees are still a bug bear at some places with minimums that mean you need to trade some R18k-R30k per hit to get the effective rate.

We Get Mail

  • Georges
    • I would like to find out how/when do ETFs collect their TER? Is this set off against distributions quarterly or “baked” into the price?
  • Helen
    • What will happen to my preference shares with Basil III? Will I loose them?

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Jul 12, 2017

Simon Shares

  • Finally, 5 weeks after moving my FTTH has been installed so I am going to Periscope each recording as it happens which is typically Wednesday afternoon. 
  • Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) update on their missing SENS. Feeling is that the impact is marginal and will hardly hurt earnings? Time will tell, I still don't like asymmetrical information.
  • Oakbay (JSE code: ORL) is delisting from the JSE as they can't find a sponsor. No surprises but real bad for any shareholders.
  • Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) announced the details of the rights offer and it is at 900c but only for R160million as apposed to the expected R320million. So much less dilution, albeit also much lower price.
  • Pubic Protector not fighting the SARB objection of her attempt to change its mandate.
  • New emerging market ETF from Satrix
  • Upcoming events

I hold ungeared positions.

ETF price wars

With the new issue of ETFs from Satrix and Sygnia taking over the DB x-trackers (to be branded Itrax) we're seeing some price wars forming. Very good news for consumers, but some buts.

  • Read the small print.
  • Don't rush. Much of this is targeted TERs and the incumbents may also adjust their TERs downwards.
  • Switching into a same but cheaper ETF may not be economical
  • Tax, costs and spread adds up.

My strategy will be where I buy an ETF that now has a cheaper alternative I will start buying the cheaper immediately. Switching will take longer.

We Get Mail

  • Everybody is asking
    • Are you buying the new emerging market ETF from Satrix?

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Jul 5, 2017

Simon Shares

  • New Satrix ETFs; S&P500, MSCI World Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Markets and at low 'target' TERs. A price war in the local ETF offerings?
  • Wednesday was exactly ten years since the UK had an interest rate increase from the BoE?
  • Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) issued a press release stating that they're cutting back on 'wet work' in the Western Cape due to drought. But no SENS?
  • ANC policy conference has proposed that the SA Reserve Bank be nationalised. Aside from my (so far failed) attempt to buy shares in it, so what? Shareholders have no say in the running of the bank and almost every other central bank is state owned.
  • What percentage ETFs in a portfolio?
  • Upcoming events

I hold ungeared positions.

New listings in hot sectors

We've seen two small stock listing recently that were trying to attach themselves onto the hype of a hot sector. Gold Brands in the quick service restaurant (QSR) space and Pembury in education. Both have failed and both teach us an important lesson in the new stars that are worth investing in.

It is about quality, it always is. Sure a raging bull market will lift all stocks as we saw way back in 2005-8 listing boom. But in a more subdued market, a more skeptical market, quality matters. Cash matters, brands matter, management matters. It all really matters. It is not enough to just be in the right space.



JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

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