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JSE Direct with Simon Brown

Weekly podcast hosted by Simon Brown covering the JSE and listed companies.
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Now displaying: November, 2018
Nov 28, 2018

This JSE Direct is proudly brought to you by IG, the specialists in CFD trading and a registered financial services provider.

Simon Shares

  • Taste (JSE code: TAS), nasty results and they're running out of money and still not profitable. I think a delisting is likely.
  • Another Viceroy research report just landed, this time targeting NEPI Rockcastle (JSE code: NRP). The sock is off 14%. Most are decrying Viceroy, but Cy Jacobs, boss at 36One, Tweeted in support of the report.

 

  • Coronation (JSE code: CML) results assets under management (AUM) and hence profits and dividend slip slightly. But on a yield of some 9% and priced cheaper then in a decade relative to AUM - it looks cheap.
  • Pepkor (JSE code: PPH) results. Actually forget the results. The company has been fined R5million (largest JSE fine ever) as they did not disclose in the listing docs that the company had essentially under written the directors share scheme that ended up costing shareholders some R500million.
  • Microsoft (Nasdaq code: MSFT) briefly over takes Apple (Nasdaq code: AAPL) as worlds largest company but neither is trillion US$ as all the FAANG stocks are now in bear market - off 20% from highs. Apple now US$826billion.
  • Upcoming events

Smashed coin

Bitcoin / BTC is now trading around US$4,000 and the bubble I was calling it a year ago has popped, spectacularly. Last year I was attacked from all directions when I was calling BTC a bubble, most of it hate filled bile. But here's the thing, I may not be the expert in BTC, but I do know markets and have been around them for a while and seen many a bubble. BTC is just another thing being traded. No different from tulips, stocks or anything else. They ultimately all behave the same.

Also being 80% off the highs doesn't mean it doesn't have more downside. I am short (since US$6,400-US$6,700) along side the two I hold in cold storage, and I am not closing my short. BTC and other crypto can go lower, a lot lower. It looks like, for now, it'll settle around the US$4,000 level, but my thinking is next leg will eventually be down. Many are telling me BTC can't go below US$1,000. Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on that. This was a massive bubble that expanded in double quick time and the deflating will takes ages and even ages more to recover. The Nasdaq took some 15 years to get back to the 2000 highs.

I am also wondering if the whole idea of the blockchain being so awesome is perhaps a weak idea. We have no large scale real world examples of blockchain being used and the technology is now a decade old.

The future for both is blurry at beast. I see the theory on Twitter now is that BTCers must knuckle down, develop technology (what tech I am not sure) and it'll be the next Amazon? And sure you can now pay company taxes in Ohio with BTC. Until, like many others who accepted BTC for a while, that idea gets pulled. BTC was always too volatile to be a used effectively as a method of payment, now even more so. The knuckle down and develop also makes no sense, most dot bomb stocks are no longer in existence. Being a first round technology is great, but that doesn't ensure survival. In fact most often first round tech dies as the future generations of the tech solve the problems that existed in the first generation.

For BTC be very careful if buying - there is no rush and any bottom could be a way off. Whatever you do as always only use money you can afford to lose. If you're trading pick your platform very carefully as some may not survive.

Haters can email me here or sub tweet me here.

I also note that while Safcoin was supposed to launch last week Tuesday with an international (whatever that means) launch this weekend. After asking on Twitter why they haven't launched, they have replaced the entire website with a single page saying now the launch will be 13 December. Frankly even aside from my very strong misgivings I would not want to be launching a crypto currency in this environment. I also note that they're still adding tokens to the system, eight days after the supposed launch and the reason for the delay has been presented as they wanted a better withdrawal system. Colour me skeptical.

My view on this crypto remains as it always has. Stay away.


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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Nov 21, 2018

This JSE Direct is proudly brought to you by IG, the specialists in CFD trading and a registered financial services provider.

Simon Shares

  • This JSE Direct is proudly brought to you by IG, the specialists in CFD trading and a registered financial services provider.
  • Invicta (JSE code: IVT) HEPS at 2c with the SARS fine costing 187c in HEPS.
  • Wescoal (JSE code: WSL) results knocking it out of the park with a PE and DY both around 4. Yet market hates small caps, so great quality and amazing price- but when / why will it move higher? Start building your list of small caps you like and want to own. But don't start buying just yet, this may take years.
  • The Fat Wallet five concepts that'll make you rich
  • Unpacking the preference share ETF )PREFTX)
  • Upcoming events

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Structured product ~ Euro Stoxx 50

Gary Booysen & Viv Govender - RandSwiss


JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Nov 7, 2018

This JSE Direct is proudly brought to you by IG, the specialists in CFD trading and a registered financial services provider.

Simon Shares

  • Mid terms, Democrats sweep Congress while Republicans keep the Senate and now things get interesting. Markets will likely ignore this, remember the immediate sell off after Brexit and Trump victories and then the rally. But this removes Trump and the Republicans free hand on taxes etc. while also making it almost impossible to pass big laws as the two sides hate each other. Also Democrats in Congress are going to start digging into Trump from every direction. That said, markets will get over it as the US economy remains strong and profits continue higher. Importantly after the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act** of the late 1920's trade was removed from Congress and given to the president. (**1928 the tariffs started on wool and sugar and ended up on over 800 products and was mentioned in the movie Ferris Bueller day off)
  • The Fat Wallet Car edition
  • Unpacking the Africa Palladium ETF
  • OUTStanding money with Outvest: Dividends explained
  • Upcoming events

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The art of losing money

If you haven't yet experienced a truly massive loss in the market you're either exclusively in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), a newbie or lucky. Because one day it will, and I have spoken about panicking quick and selling dogs. This week the five stages of grief.

But first the pain of losing is twice the joy of making. Compare being scammed out of ten bucks vs. finding ten rand on the pavement. You'll remember the former for days, ages afterwards. the latter you'll have forgotten before you even spend the money.

The Kübler-Ross model of the five stages of grief. Yes this is around death, but it can work for any loss and so I am using it in terms of a large loss on the markets - typically in one stock (lots of recent examples here).

The 5 stages are; denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.

  • Denial. It's not happening. All will be fine. Fake news. Rotten governments. Nasty passive providers. Over reaction. The diagnosis is mistaken, and we cling to a false, preferable reality. Simple we put our head in the sand and pretend it's not happening.
  • Anger. It seems real and now you're angry. A pile of your hard earned money is gone and somebody needs to be blamed. Never yourself, somebody else. Your broker, that expert on TV, the CEO, a politician. It's not fair. Stomp, stomp, stomp.
  • Bargaining. Still trying to not blame yourself, you start to excuse your actions. How could you know? It will recover, the market has over reacted and things will improve. Everybody got duped. You're trying to excuse your actions, not so much the buying, but the not selling immediately the bad news broke. The news isn't really that bad and it'll recover eventually.
  • Depression. This is bad, real bad and now you hate markets and are never watching BusinessDay TV ever again. Everything is corrupt and rotten. This 'thing' is rigged against the small guy.
  • Acceptance. We all end up here eventually. Things happen, often bad things but this is a natural part of investing. At times we get it wrong, fraud happens, shares collapse. Now we can start looking at ways to prevent this happening again. What price do we pay (the only thing in investing we have control over). A diverse portfolio with lots of passive to reduce the impact of a single stock collapse.

Recognise what stage you're at and importantly what can you control.


JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

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