Offshore
/ Disney results all about Disney+
/ Tesla puts $1.5billion into Bitcoin
/ Janet Yellen warns of ‘explosion of risk’ from cryptocurrency markets
/ Bumble IPO with 60% gain on the first day
/ Platinum above $1,200 for first tine in six years
/ Freeze Sends Gas Soaring to $600
Local
/ More small-cap updates surprise to upside; Trellidor & Metrofile
/ Itatile results
/ ARB Holdings results, solid cash generation
/ Rand turned sixty yesterday
/ Cartrack coming back to earth after hitting 9000c
/ Steinhoff maybe resolving their legal woes
/ SARS collections ahead by R100billion
Simon Shares
- Bitcoin* hits US$48,000 as Tesla declares they put US$1.5billion into the crypto.
- Platinum finally on the move and above US$1,200 for the first time since 2015.
[caption id="attachment_24687" align="aligncenter" width="888"]
Platinum weekly chart[/caption]
- Sibanye Stillwater* (JSE code: SSW) best illustrates the boom in mining profits. In 2019 they made R62million now 2020 they expect almost R30billion and over 1000c HEPS. Could we see a 500c dividend?
- Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) very solid update and the stock has recovered from their 2019 wobble. There is still two potential buyers, one stuck in Australia, truthfully, I would rather they remain potential and I will hold the stock.
Upcoming events;
- Weekly on Wednesday ~ Follow the Trader
- 18 February ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing
- 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader
Should I sell the bounce?
Depends why you bought the stock.
- A long-term investment? No, then you keep it and focus on fundamentals rather than price.
- A quick trade to make a few bucks. Then absolutely sell the bounce, you won't get the top price (well maybe you'll get lucky) and as we saw with Telkom (JSE code: TKG) the bounce just keeps on bouncing. So watch and wait and sell on weakness after the bounce That may be immediate or may take a few days or a week.
Waiting for the weakness is a skill you'll learn, slowly over time.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Offshore
/ Nasdaq & S&P500 close Friday at all-time highs
/ Alphabet & Amazon results
/ US unemployment drops to 6.%
/ Jeff Bezos to step up to the executive chair, no longer CEO
/ Chinese short video company Kuaishou rose nearly 200% at the open on its debut in Hong Kong.
Local
/ Ford investment of R15.8-billion into SA
/ Updates; Distell & Motus
/ Level 3 lite
/ Sibanye Stillwater update, R62million profit to almost R30billion
/ Load shedding
Simon Shares
- GameStop closed at US$90 on Tuesday.
- Jeff Bezos to step down as Amazon CEO.
- Apple knockout results.
- Ford to spend R15.8billion on local plant upgrade.
Upcoming events;
- Weekly (Wednesday at 5.30pm) ~ Follow the Trader
- 18 February ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing
Booming SA Inc. consumers?
We're seeing decent updates from local retailers so far this year, which is odd. Now let's be clear, decent not knock it out the park.
- Distell (JSE code: DGH) lost 41 days of sales in the second half of 2020 yet expects HEPS to be + 8.6% - +13.6%.
- Motus (JSE code: MTH) expect HEPS to be 0% - 5% higher, sent the stock up some 20% in two days.
A few possible reasons;
- Lockdown so we have money to spend
- Working from home saving on transport
- Social grants increased
36One calculate some R100bn extra from social grants but also people taking money out of pension schemes & retrenchment packages. The risk here is that this is temporary, which is certainly the 36One fear.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Offshore
/ GameStop
/ Results; Apple & Tesla
/ Tencent listing Kuaishou (TikTok competitor) this week
/ US 4th quarter GDP at 4%
/ Davos online
Local
/ IMF downgrades SA GDP 2021/2 growth forecast
/ Huge offers script to buyout AdaptIT
/ Anglo stable of updates (AGL, AMS & KIO)
/ Clicks update and closing Musica
/ Solid Sasol update
/ Johnson & Johnson vaccine, Aspen to produce 300m a year
Upcoming events;
- 18 February ~ JSE Power Hour: ETFs and tax-free investing
GameStop perfect craziness
Three things came together to push this stock up +20x in a week;
- Massive short position
- Option buying
- Markets love stories
Simon dissects the three explains how it all played out and why it is perfectly legal.
[caption id="attachment_24640" align="aligncenter" width="678"]
GameStop daily chart[/caption]
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Offshore
/ Netflix results
/ Weak IBM results
/ Tesla results this week
/ US GDP (4th quarter)
/ Federal Reserve rate statement on Thursday
/ Procter & Gamble solid results & increasing buy backs by $2billion to $18billion
Local
/ Chris Griffith Kumba ==> Anglo Plat ==> now Goldfields
/ BAW selling motor division for R947m
/ MPC no surprise but vote was 3-2, with 2 for a hike.
/ Redefine to pass on 2020 dividend
/ Strong Richemont update
Simon Shares
- Trading updates from Truworths (JSE code: TRU) and Foschini (JSE code: TFG) both saw sales decrease for the period ending both saw sales down. But not down as much as expected and hence the stocks went wild. Truworths was up some 25% in two days. More than anything this is because expectations were dire. That said I'm not convinced, the lockdown was increased post the period end and as mentioned, sales and HEPS are expected to be down. We'll get more retail updates and over the following two weeks, with Pick n Pay the exception - they don't issues sales trading updates.
- On Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK), they announced that after eight-years CEO Richard Brasher will be stepping down after a solid turn around in the company.
- Local CPI came in at 3.1% for December leaving 2020 at 3.3%, the lowest since 2004 (1.4%) and 1969 (3.0%). The MPC will announce he repo rate Thursday, no change expected and with growth under pressure (load shedding, new lockdowns and late vaccine) I don't any increases in 2021
It's all lies
All of it. Politicians, corporates, marketers. The whole lot. So we need to be extra cautious whenever we hear anything an ask the questions. Ask why they say that? Ask the likelihood of it being provable and how the lie benefits them? Ask what's missing, and why is it missing?
Let's be clear, Trump has emboldened liars like nobody before him. But this is not new. Politicians lie all the time, most promising things that they're unable or worse, unwilling, to actually deliver on. But we've entered a new level whereby when lies are challenged they are deflected not with truth but more lies or the truth is called 'fake news'.
For investors, we also have a bunch of lying happening.
My favourite trick is that before I read a set of results I head to the previous one or two sets and maybe even an annual report and read their forward-looking statement and review of the period. This quickly gives you a sense of which CEOs are honest and which are just fluffing it until their next bonus.
Accounts are themselves not directly lies, but they're also not 100% truth. There are assumptions made at many turns in a set of results.
- Some like Steinhoff we now know were all lies and I avoided that because of the complexity and that's an important point.
- Tongaat was a hard one to spot, but the red flag (in hindsight but useful for the future) is when the company gets to 'value' assets.
- African Bank we could spot because earnings were increasing but dividends were not. So no cash was being made from the higher earnings.
Common amongst all three? Very strong CEO who ruled with an iron fist.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Offshore
/ Biden starts Wednesday, already has $1.9trillion stimulus plan
/ Japanese market at 3-decade highs
/ Chinese GDP +2.3% for 2020
/ Rhodium above $20k
/ US won’t ban investing into Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu
/ JPMorgan results knock it out of the park
Local
/ Brasher exits Pick n Pay
/ Murray & Roberts OZ contract
/ Truworths trading update
/ J&J vaccine details expected this week, good news for Aspen
/ Load shedding returns
/ MPC on Thursday
2021 predictions show
Every year Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown do a predictions show. Three wild and woolly predictions for the markets followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead.
Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year's predictions and you’ll find the 2020 predictions show here.
The 2021 predictions are (listen for reasoning);
- Not more than 10% of SA population (6million) vaccinated during 2021
- Gold close 2021 +$2k
- Ford & GM out preform Tesla
- Top40 ~ green
- ZAR ~ stronger
- Resi10 in $ will beat Nasdaq
- US ten year real yield (less inflation) will be negative
- Eastern Cape house price inflation will beat Gauteng
- Top40 ~ green
- ZAR ~ stronger
- Russel 2000 beats S&P500
- Resi10 beats Fini15 & Indi25
- No US or ZA rate increases this year
- Top40 ~ green
- ZAR ~ stronger
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.