Simon Shares
- US inflation for June was 3.0%, expected was 3.1% and previous 4.0%.
- Next FOMC meeting is 25/26 July.
- I think they still do a 0.25% rate hike, but then maybe pause for good, well until cuts start next year.
Nasdaq100 special rebalance to cut the 'Magnificent Seven' to "address over concentration in the index by redistributing the weights."
Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla are the magnificent seven. They account for 55% of the index.
- Effective close 21 July
- Done twice previously; December 1998 and May 2011.
- The combined weight of the five stocks with the largest market caps will be set to 38.5%, currently it is 46.7%.
- Nasdaq100 is a modified market capitalisation index. So market capitalisation is not the only consideration, albeit is the biggest contributor.
- Overall this has already seen some selling in the big five, and buying in those that are expected to be weighted higher. Final weightings will be announced after close in Friday 14 July.
The Four Horsemen of Big Tech
A phrase coined in the late 1990s for Microsoft, Intel, Cisco Systems and Dell Computer as they stormed higher in the dot com craze.
All had horrid collapses and took o a decade plus to recover their dot com levels and Cisco and Intel have been modest investments at best with Dell delisting.
Are we seeing the same with the magnificent seven?
Yes, no, maybe.
It is different this time, they all have real tech and make real profits. But have they gone wild on the AI bonanza? Absolutely. Now sure, AI will only get better and all seven have a real chance of be the real leaders in the space (in different ways). But valuations are stretched and this current earnings season is important as are the next few as well.
Simon Brown