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Introduction:
JSE Direct Episode 571 for January 25, hosted by Simon Brown.
Simon introduces the idea of transitioning the podcast to a live format using Riverside, allowing viewers to see charts and interact during recordings.
Market Updates:
Richemont*:
- Stock surged 10% on better-than-expected trading update.
- Identified as an opportunity last year when it pulled back to R2,500.
- Trading at R2,653 at the time of the recording.
AVI:
- AVI delivered a strong update, but struggling with I&J.
- AVI focuses on defending margins, willing to lose volumes for profitability.
- Potential sale or listing of INJ discussed.
Woolies*:
- Mixed trading update.
- Struggles in Australia, especially with David Jones, while food segment remains strong.
- Concerns about the performance of the clothing segment.
Clicks:
- Mostly a strong update, struggles in UDP (wholesale drug distribution).
- Selling price inflation averaged 7.5%, higher than the previous period.
- Clicks achieved highest-ever daily sales in late December.
Economic Updates:
- December spending records discussed with BankserveAfrica.
- Expectations for rate announcements from local and European central banks.
- Hawkish tone expected from local governor; questions about Jerome Powell's stance.
Global Market Highlights:
All-Time Highs:
- S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones hit all-time highs.
- Russell 2000 still 20% off its highs, considered in bear market territory.
- India's stock market surpasses Hong Kong, becoming the world's fourth-largest share market.
China in trouble, is it over? Should we be worried?
- Simon reflects on recent data and developments in China.
- Population decrease and aging population noted.
- Speculation on a potential $278 billion spending spree to support the market.
- Concerns about state-directed capitalism and common prosperity policies.
- Recent crackdowns in gaming, education, and potential implications for healthcare.
- China's focus on national defense and potential impacts on Taiwan.
- China's shift towards a more inward-looking and self-focused path.
Conclusion:
- Speculation on the impact of China's changes on global growth, commodity prices, and investments.
- Simon announces plans to start recording the podcast live, with notifications on social media and newsletters.
- Acknowledgment of the podcast's longevity (571 episodes) and a request for reviews.
Closing:
Simon Brown signs off, encourages reviews, and mentions future live recordings.
Reminds listeners to take care of themselves and others.
* Simon holds ungeared positions.