Position your portfolio for 2017 with Simon Brown
Every year we conclude the JSE Power Hour series with a presentation by Just One Lap founder, Simon Brown. He gives his insights for the year ahead and how to position your portfolio accordingly.
Last year the presentation was just days before then Minister Nene was fired and this year’s event will be just days after the Standard and Poor’s announcement regarding South Africa’s credit status.
Simon will review his predictions from last year and look at what the year ahead holds and how we can best position our investment portfolio.
Issues that to be covered will include;
- Junk status
- The Rand
- Interest rates
- Offshore investments
- Impact of the looming Brexit
- Our local economy and its growth potential
- A selection of preferred stocks for the year ahead including for your ETF portfolio
- The PDF of the presentation is here.
Reviewing my portfolio for 2016
Simon Shares
Standard & Poor's left offshore debt as is (one notch above junk) and dropped the ZAR debt to two notches above junk and on a negative outlook. Standard & Poor's have to decide on junk or not by end 2017 or change the negative outlook to stable, so another anxious 2017 awaits us.
Reviewing Simon's portfolio for 2016
Some great returns, some middling and one very nasty. Portfolio is published here and returns (ex dividends for the 12 months to close 3 December 2016) as below.
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- Simon's portfolio returns for 2016
We Get Mail
- @luckysibiya74
- Hi Simon, do you think it's a good idea to borrow money to buy shares and is there a type of loan that's purely for buying shares?
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Simon Shares
- Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) seller in market, use it to pick up some at great price / yield.
- Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) results see diluted HEPS at 54.16c (vs. 60.40 previous year) and dividend at 52c. I like the business but it is very expensive for a low margin operation without performance fees.
- Moody's not so moody. Fitch full of surprises and Standard and Poor's lurking.
- We got Marc Ashton, MD at Moneyweb, giving us his preferred ETF list.
- Up coming events;
- Trading Master Class: Tuesday 6th at 6.00pm - Lazy trading indices and FX.
- JSE Power Hour: Thursday 8th at 5.30pm - Position your portfolio for 2017.
We Get Mail
- Charles
- Would you pay for a guaranteed stop loss?
- Hermanus Trade
- In your video "A complete CFD share trading system" you stated that the system is based on the top 40 stocks, for the liquidity behind it. I was wondering, to what point would you consider a stock to be liquid enough to trade on a 15 or 30min chart (average daily volume)?
- Franz
- What is the procedure for opening an offshore account?
- Anon
- I bought Anglogold Ashanti 300 shares at R241.03 each now the shares price dropped with more than 35%. Should I sell them or hold on?
- Anon
- Current situation I find myself over a total of R176 438.67 in debt.
- Dominic
- What I don't understand is what drives the price on that index and how does it change 24/7? What am i buying and who buys what I sell. Also what indicators drive this price, type of events.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Are we Brazilian?
- Are we Brazilian?
Simon Shares
- Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) 1million shares on offer at 500c. Subtle?
- Dis-Chem (JSE code: DCP), like everybody else I did not get in the private placement and I am not looking to buy in the open market.
- Santova* (JSE code: SNV) getting hit. I hold and continue to hold, not buying any more as I have plenty. Twelve month low is 320c on 25 November 2015, looks like we could get back to that level soon enough.
- Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) saw massive volume on Tuesday, R1.3billion which is 2x - 3x normal value traded.
- Tongaat* (JSE code: TON) up at R130, nice but I hadn't finished buy below R120. Not buying up at R130 at the moment, albeit target is likely R150-R180 over next 6-12 months. Let's see if we get some weakness.
- I been digging into Stor-Age Property (JSE code: SSS) as a possible investment. Thus far not excited by what I see.
- Up coming events;
- Trading Master Class: Tuesday 6th at 6.00pm - Lazy trading indices and FX.
- JSE Power Hour: Thursday 8th at 5.30pm - Position your portfolio for 2017
Are we the next Brazil?
Since their first junk downgrade in September 2015 the Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOV) is up some 50% while the Brazilian Real has strengthened about 20% against the USD. Could we follow the same after a downgrade to junk?
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Trump wins, now what?
- Trump wins, now what?
(Image from Business Insider)
Simon Shares
- Astoria (JSE code: ARA) backs down from its incentive scheme that could have seen up to 25% of new shares issued to directors.
- Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) = very good. Spar (JSE code: SPP) update = good. Massmart (JSE code: MSM) = poor. Truworths (JSE code: TRU) = horrid. Food doing alright, clothing really struggling.
- The downgrade and your ETF portfolio.
- Up coming events;
Now what?
Brexit, Trump. What's next?
Trump wins, pollsters and social media are amazed. But is it our fault? I tweeted
The problem with SM is that we follow our own echo chamber .. all sides are here in equal measure, yet we only follow the side we agree with
— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) November 9, 2016
We believe our own BS. I said way back in February that Trump could win, I wasn't predicting anything but rather understanding that our ability to see into the future is zero and as always we need resilient portfolios that withstand the surprises. If your portfolio is all gold because of the end of the world you're having a good day but a really bad decade. iI your portfolio is all US stocks because SA is toast you have a good run post the crisis, but now? We need a broad, robust thoughtful portfolio that can withstand downgrades, Brexits and Trump victories.
Uncertainty is the only certainty. Recession in the US within a year? No idea. USD weaker, who really knows? Republicans are good for stock markets say the pundits, what of Clinton 1994-2001 and Obama 2008-present? Don't fall into the stereo types.
Bottom line. Don't panic. Predictions about the immediate future are like predicting election results.
Are we seeing a swing globally to the right, what you think politically about that doesn't matter, what matters is how this impacts the global economy and it will be about barriers. Barriers to free trade, barriers to immigration, barriers to the flow of money, ideas and ultimately capitalism. No capitalism is not dead but we may need to rethink our broad investment ideas. There's no rush, if this is a swing to the right it's playing out over the next couple of decades.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
I hate my life, teach me to trade
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- I hate my life, teach me to tarde
Simon Shares
- Dis-Chem, I will likely apply and stag them on listing.
- Whitey Basson quitting as Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) CEO at end of year.
- Buying Tongaat (JSE code: TON).
- Finance minister Gordhan charges dropped, good for junk threat?
- Trading Master Class - Trend lines video is online.
- Up coming events;
- JSE Power Hour: Thursday 3rd at 5.30pm - offshore investing. The how.
- JSE Power Hour: Thursday 10th at 5.30pm - TraderPetri on becoming a better trader
We Get Mail
- All
- I have xxx of debt. I hate my job. I hate my life. Please teach me how to trade?
- All
- How many years experience one must acquire to be profitable in trading?
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
A letter for when you're dead
Simon Shares
- Still on holiday.
- Up coming events;
- IG Trading Master Class: Tuesday at 6pm - Trend lines, break outs and Turtle trading.
- JSE Power Hour: Thursday at 5.30pm - Offshore investing. The how.
A letter for when you're dead
When we die hopefully we have a will that'll deal with our estate. But if we've been the one managing investments what happens to them? Sure they go to your heirs, but do they know what to do with them, the strategy and plans? We ned to write a letter to those surviving us explaining it all.
Does you partner / family have a full understanding of how you've put together your investments and finances?
- What do you own and with who?
- What's the strategy?
- Keep each strategy in a separate account.
- Who can manage your investment portfolio now that you're dead?
- What to watch out for.
- How to change / adapt the strategy. Who to appoint to manage this.
- Where is the emergency fund and how is it accessed?
- Your speculative / derivative positions need to be closed ASAP as your estate could take ages to finalise.
- What policies do you have in your name and in other names?
- Where did you hide the Kruger millions?
- Not money related but; passwords, subscriptions, social media etc.?
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JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Simon Shares
- Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results. Everybody loves them but I am not wowed. Operating margin of 1.5% up from 1.3% is tiny. By comparison Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) is 5.6% and Spar (JSE code: SPP) is 2.8%. Like for like constant currency turnover grew 3.8% against selling price inflation of 5.5%, so still losing market share?
- New offshore ETFs from CoreShares. A S&P500 tracker and a Global Property fund. I have applied for the later.
- Up coming events;
Keith McLachlan fund manager at Alpha Wealth
Chatting Calgro M3 results, memorial parks, new CEO and their residential Reit. We also touch on the Dischem listing and Cell C results that we got a first look at due to the Blue Label 45% stake in the business.
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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Hello junk
Simon Shares
- Fees feedback. Seems some active managers are getting serious about fees. But still not 100% in favour of client who pays the fees and some have done odd things. But nobody came back and said my ideas of last week were truly horrid, nor eve slightly horrid.
- Just last week I was commenting that my odds of a downgrade to junk were retreating. Still above 50%, but only just. Then Gordhan arrest and odds increase again, I think chance of a downgrade to junk is now around 61%.
- Important dates;
- 26 October - Mid Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS)
- 2 November - Gordhan to appear in court on fraud charges
- 24 November MPC rate decision
- 2 December - SP announce SA credit rating
- 6 December - GDP for Q3 2016
- Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) disappointed, I am not selling but waiting for results to see details.
- Taste Holdings (JSE code: TAS) results have lots of moving parts, but they're burning cash at a rapid rate and need to get profitable otherwise they run out. Potentially a good business, but first we need to see the profits kicking I and food (even at core level) needs to start turning real profits wit the new brands.
- Up coming events;
- Trading Master Class, mastering binary options with a follow up webcast on Tuesday at 4pm.
Brexit
- Time line, late 2018 / early 2019
- Sterling? Weaker for longer?
- Trade, surely they will get good tarde deals with major partners?
- Movement of people, this is going to be a problem?
- City of London, does it move elsewhere? But where? Europe has language barriers so New York?
- Economy? Surely weak for a while? Longer term = probably do fine, no shooting the lights out.
- Bottom line is that free movement of people and goods is good for capitalism. The UK is moving away from free movement, that's not good.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Still hating active fees
Simon Shares
- With SABMiller exiting the JSE new weightings in the indices with Naspers (JSE code: NPN) now 19% in the Top40 and 31% in the Indi25.
- Rating downgrade to junk, still on the cards?
- Deutsche Bank and the deal on their ETFs and ETNs.
- Live followup reversal patterns video is online.
- Two events next week;
Still hating active fees
- Is the benchmark being used a total return index (TRI) that includes dividends? If not the active manager wins because they get dividends that immediately put them ahead of the benchmark by a few percent.
- Are performance fees paid back when the fund manager under performs? If not the manager and clients are not aligned as performance is paid when they do well but not returned when they do poorly.
We Get Mail
- George
- I have a CFD acc on the JSE, it has buy and sell options, but I want to short shares when they go down, must I buy it and then sell or do I sell something and later buy it back.
- Myron
- Difference between book and intrinsic value?
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Simon Shares
- Thursday 29 September is the last day for SABMiller (JSE code: SAB). Shareholders approved the take over and it will be suspended and delisted from close on 29th. It has been listed on the JSE since 1897 Index changes; IMP into Top40, AVI into Indi25 & FFA/B into Findi.
- There is a chart floating around of Lehman Brothers just before they hit the wall and one of Deutsche Bank over laid on each other. Nice to look at but in no way telling us anything worth being told.
- Deutsche Bank is the largest German bank, fourth largest European bank, and 11th largest bank in the world with assets of over $1.9 trillion – equal to half the size of the German economy. (source Sparkfin.com)
- Remgro (JSE code: REM) is doing another rights issue at R192.50, a decent discount to the current price of some R240. That said the book value of Remgro in the most recent results was R153.17 (intrinsic value was R306.44).
- MTN, more woes in Nigerian. I remain a happy ex-shareholder.
- What happens to bonds and bond ETFs if we get downgraded?
Can we trust Capitec?
Capitec (JSE code: CPI) results were decent enough albeit Keith McLachlan pointed out on Twitter "Quick calc: If Capitec had kept Arrears Coverage Ratio flat at 239% (not dropping it to 229%), Basic Earnings would've been R1504m =only +2%"
Capitec defines Arrears Coverage Ratio as "The provision/arrears coverage ratio expresses the provision for doubtful debts as a percentage of the loans in arrears. The ratio is therefore affected by the arrears performance of the month in which it is measured, while the impairment model is used to determine the provision for doubtful debts over the loan period. The ratio should therefore not be considered in isolation."
We Get Mail
- Samuel
- If you own CSEW40 do you get invited to the different companies AGM? Who makes decisions for all the investors shares?
- Alec
- Points out the very marked difference between saving and investing.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Reviewing small cap results with Keith McLachlan
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- Reviewing small cap results with Keith McLachlan
Simon Shares
- Wells Fargo is the sort of stock that if I owned it, I would sell it as management totally failed and refuse to accept any blame.
- There is a theory that equal weight ETFs have higher costs because they have to rebalance every stock every quarter. But checking the STXIND over the last four quarters. Twice every stock changed weight and twice only two stocks did not change weightings.
- Harmony (JSE code: HAR) buys the half of the Hidden Valley mine in Papua New Guinea for US$1!
- PPC (JSE code: PPC) rights offer was 92% taken up but with excess allocation requests of another 509%. Some serious big hitters thinking this a great deal.
- Sasfin (JSE code: SFN) nonperforming loans more than doubled. They operate in the small-and medium-sized enterprises so it is a telling number. The economy is seriously struggling and while I have seen some economists upgrading GDP expectations for 2016, none have us at above 1% for the year. So better but not close enough to good.
- Moody's says a one third chance of a downgrade but what really matters is Fitch and Standard and Poors as they have us just above junk status. Things are looking a bit better but I still think we're on track for a downgrade to junk.
- Proptrax SAPY ETF from CoreShares.
- Trading Master Class, reversal patterns video is online. Follow up webcast (live on the IG platform) is 5th October 1pm (book here).
Keith McLachlan small / mid cap fund manager at Alpha Wealth
Tough conditions for SA inc. but we've seen some great results from small and mid cap listed companies. Simon chats to Keith about recent results from;
- Afrocentric (JSE code: ACT)
- Rolfes (JSE code: RLF)
- Acendis Health (JSE code: ACS)
- Master Drilling (JSE code: MDI)
We Get Mail
- Sarel
- SAB Options. Any strong opinions regarding these two options?
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Reviewing results
Simon Shares
- Feedback on making sense of SENS
- AVI (JSE code: AVI) results show good numbers in a tough market. People tend to look to Pioneer (JSE code: PFG) or TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) but this is the real gem in the space with a dividend yield of 4%.
- Holdsport (JSE code: HSP) trading update shows increased comparable sales growth, but after inflation they're going backwards. I never been a fan of this business albeit the share is up some 100% in the last five years, around 15% a year which is nice, but average? But then add a chunky dividend that currently yields 5%, can they hold the dividend or even increase it? I suspect they can but I still not interested.
- Clover (JSE code: CLR) were good considering the tough times with drought yet they had an over supply of milk? I used to own this stock but they weren't growing and expanding as I had expected so I exited.
- Sasol (JSE code: SOL) results came in as expected albeit with help from translations gains (FX moving in their favour) and a tax issue in Nigeria together adding almost R2.7billion. Point is they make a profit even at the low point of the cycle, that's impressive. Lake Charles remains their massive deal. I continue to hold Sasol and below R400 it is cheap but I am not buying more until Lake Charles is completed and we see if starting to make money rather than cost money.
- Richemont (JSE code: CFR) update is ugly, sales down across the board with operating profit for the six months ending September expected to be down 45%! Some of this is restructuring but sales are weak. I hold the stock and continue to hold but it not fun right now. Adding to this is the SENS on the AGM voting, no real disclosure just "all other matters on the agenda were also approved by the shareholders by an overwhelming majority.". Not good enough.
- Burger King, owned by Grand Parade (JSE code: GPL) saw average monthly sales per store decline 20% to R800k / month. That is a massive drop. They also have the brand rights to Dunkin' Donuts and Baskin-Robbins, neither of which excites me. The leader in this space remains Famous brands and that's the one I own.
- Last week Wealth Creation 101 video is online. Go watch it.
- Next Tuesday, 20th, we have our third Trading Master Class with IG focusing on reversal patterns.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Simon Shares
- Local GDP came in better then expected and importantly positive, so no technical recession. Manufacturing and mining were the strong sectors but we need a lot more very strong quarters to get out of the bad spot we find ourselves in and a down grade is still very much on the cards in December.
- Discovery (JSE code: DSY) has so many moving parts but for me the key is Vitality is now in 14 markets around the world. I remain a happy shareholder albeit they've done very little over the last year or so.
- We have a lot of shopping malls in South Africa, b some reports more per capita than any other country. Hyprop (JSE code: HYP) is by far the best of the bunch with regard local malls as they own high traffic top end malls.
- Mr Price (JSE code: MRP) seems to have lost the mantle. They have now had three reporting seasons over the last year and all disappointed. Is it just bad buying and the weather? I suspect they're seriously struggling under the weight on new competition from the likes of H&M and Cotton On. This is a biggie and if I was a shareholder I would be looking to exit.
- Capitec (JSE code: CPI) trading update sees HEPS 17%-20% higher. Wth a historic PE of almost 22x a little light but well ahead of consensus that was looking for single digit growth.
- Does volatility give you indigestion? Kristia reviews the CoreShares LowVoltrax ETF with expert commentary from Warren Ingram.
- Tonight, going back to basics with wealth creation 101 at the JSE.
- The Fat Wallet Show did the follow up about buying a house vs. renting.
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)
Some listed companies seem to use it as marketing (witness the Sibanye proudly announcing their inclusion into the Top40 later this month and CarTrack announcing 550k subscribers) while other publish the bare bones (Comiar and Master Drilling just giving numbers in previous years). Others like Steinhoff seem to have moved onto Europe forgotten about us and just push links through SENS.
I would also like to see a standard applied by the JSE. For example all results have to have the top four points (HEPS, Dividend, revenue & debt) right up front so you can't hide.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Questions, questions, questions
Simon Shares
- Metrofile (JSE code: MFL) results saw HEPS +4.6% (very modest) and the full year dividend 42.9% putting it on a dividend yield of some 6%. Wowness and why I own the stock, for the dividend.
- PPC nil paid letters (NPLs) started trading yesterday as PPCN. People are asking me what to do with them and I am sticking to my story. Shorter term after they convert we may get a bounce, longer term PPC has real risks and I would not want to be a holder. So short answer is sell.
- Bidvest (JSE code: BVT) results were weak with single digit HEPS growth of 2.5% while Bidcorp (JSE code: BID) had great HEPS growth. We know the story and why they split, one local one offshore.
- Nigerian GDP stays negative and country is now in a technical recession. More tough times for local companies operating in that market.
- I am being asked if I am selling the gold stocks in the momentum portfolio? The answer is no, it is a rules based system and we follow the rules.
- GIVRES has done an amazing 99.5% in the last year, Kristia reviews the ETF and get expert commentary from Petri Redelinghuys.
- Next Thursday we have a JSE Power Hour, online or at the JSE in Sandton and we're going back to basics - always a good place to revisit. The topic is wealth creation 101 and is presented by Simon Brown.
- The second part of the Trading Master Class with IG is online, dealing with an index trading system.
We Get Mail
- George
- I am 25 years old. I own DBX trackers for EUR, US and JAPAN as well as Ashburton Midcap (thanx to your lazy system). I now have an additional R10k to invest in my TFSA. I know what you would do: DBXWorld and a Top40 ETF. But my thinking is that I already have enough exposure to the world and instead of doing an SA top 40, maybe I should invest in an ETF that generates me dividends/interest for the long haul. This seems like a smart idea to a youngster like me. But being a youngster, my ideas are often not the smartest. I am currently thinking of investing in the Coreshares Preftrax ETF and/or the Proptrax Ten. Is this idea smart? If you were me, what would you do with the 10k?
- Ernst
- South Africa's economy is not looking great at the moment, Gordhan, the rand, junk status. I would like to know if one should invest now in Top 40 ETFs or wait it out till these things happen and everything might be cheap (the value of shares ). Not sure how to use my X amount of money in this time.
- Jing
- I have had a look at your portfolio and frequently watch your shows. A lot of it seems to be geared towards having offshore exposure and selecting shares with offshore operations. I am currently contemplating investing in developing/emerging economies namely India and China as I feel there is a lot of upside given the size of their economies and high growth rates relative to the rest of the world. I was wondering whether you had any insights on whether this would be a good move at present. Furthermore, are there any funds in South Africa that could give me such exposure to the Indian or Chinese stock exchanges? I know that there are a few shares on the JSE that have interests in China such as Naspers in Tencent holdings, but I am looking at having a broader and more direct exposure to these markets.
- John
- Hi again Simon, the Stop Losses I have difficulty with are not in Trading but in Investing which are not the same as far as I'm concerned. Trading is far more hands-on. Have lost heavily with CCO & BAT post Brexit & realise I must be far more ruthless but am still unsure as to where I should have placed my SL's.
- Marcia
- I am worried about the Rand and it weakening a whole lot suddenly. How can I protect against this?
- Sylvester
- I don't have time to do trading but I want to invest, do I buy and hold ETFs or I look for someone to trade for me.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Role of a Stock Broker in your investment journey
Simon Shares
- More finance minister concerns and more rand weakness. The bigger picture is you have to have a bigger picture investment view otherwise events like this will hurt.
- In the last of this three part series if you had R300, which ETF would you buy? We ask Warren Ingram and Craig Gradidge for their view.
- Trading Master Class, an index trading system is online and follow up in on Monday at 1pm.
- Tonight in Durban we have a JSE Power Hour - 9.97562 Possible Pitfalls in Investment Planning
- Our home ownership is the new broke podcast is still generating lots of buzz. Kristia has been on leave so we reward a bunch of Fat Wallet Shows, we will revisit the topic Monday week (5 September).
Role of a Stock Broker in your investment journey
- Simon Brown - Founder of JustOneLap.com
- Ridwaan Moolla - ABSA, Head of Digital Enablement in Wealth and Investments
- Charles Savage – Purple Group, Group CEO
- Kevin Algeo – IG, Head of IG
- Greg Kangleas - Vunani Private Clients, Head of Copy Trade and Portfolio Manager
- Grant Meintjes - PSG Wealth, Head of PSG Securities
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Where to for the Rand?
Simon Shares
- The Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq all closed at all time highs for the first time since December 1999.
- Dog stocks, don't mix price and fundamentals.
- I been buying PTXTEN after exiting my STXDIV and not being blown away by DIVTRX.
- If you had R300, which ETF would you buy? We ask Nerina Visser & Keith McLachlan for their view.
- Trading Master Class, an index trading system is online.
Garth MacKenzie TradersCorner.co.za
Where too for the rand? We've seen it stronger this year after a blow out late last year and into January. Garth offers a technical view and below is the long term monthly chart of USD/ZAR.
- Long term monthly USD/ZAR chart
We Get Mail
- Fouche
- Would there be any merit in the argument that Japan is 20 years ahead of "us" (USA Europe world markets that are applying QE) and we could be looking at similar years of sideways movement?
- Aaron
- I have an aunt who wants to start saving R10k p/m for the next 12 months. What can you advise as the most suitable investment option. She asked for my advise but am not sure what to suggest to her as I think 1 year is a short period.
- Ryno
- Thanks for the in-depth response to my question. With regulation stopping the building of a Berkshire lookalike wont it be a viable option for a DIY investor to buy say 5 or 6 REITs and use the income out of that as money to buy listed companies?
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JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Simon Shares
- US mattresses with Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH)? Paying more than double the last traded price?
- MTN looks all ugly. Forget the fine, forget over a billion Rands in associated costs. Nigerian and South African markets look weak and I still say they need to transition into being a data utility. That said there's a nice trade from around R122 - R140.
- SABMiller (JSE code: SAB) leaving the JSE on 11 October (most likely) after listing on the JSE in 1897 (just two years after being founded and a decade after the JSE was founded). SAB has been one of the key drivers of the Indi25 index over the last decade (SAB +472%, All Share +154%). They're going to leave a gapping hole.
- If you had R300, which ETF would you buy? We ask the Just One Lap team for their picks.
- The Fat Wallet Show goes where few are brave enough to trend. Renting vs. buying, what does the maths say?
Keith McLachlan from Alpha Wealth
Finding a local Berkshire Hathaway? Simon answered a listener questions suggesting that maybe Conduit Capital (JSE code: CND) was an option. The trick however is the regulatory environment and Keith McLachlan helps us understand what those Solvency Assessment and Management (SAM) regulations are and how difficult it makes for a company to model themselves on Berkshire Hathaway.
We Get Mail
- Caroline
- Richemont (JSE code: CFR) has been falling steadily for nearly a year and is down 26.59%. Is it now regarded as a “Dog”???? Or because it is in your Death Do Us Part portfolio has it become a “Puppy”? Question – have you sold or not? My problem is Astoria (JSE code: ARA). I bought for long, long, term and that has fallen about the same. Do I bale and lose a large dollop of my portfolio which I am no longer in a position to recoup, or let it turn around with the Rand exchange rate. Problem is that might not happen in my lifetime!!! Decisions …. decisions
- Tax feedback
- Just a point on not being able to offset trading losses against other income, believe you can as long as SARS didn't ring fence the loss and your chances are better if you are not at marginal tax rate,activity not deemed to be a hobby and not more than 3 losses out of last 5 tax years.
- I can feel for Johan. I used the "Other income" to declare 'trading income' from various sources. I keep these income's to the bare minimum. HOWEVER.... No easy place to claim expenses as a separate entry. Unless You open the can of worms called "Business" income.
- Jacques
- Any ideas on how to benefit from current strong rand i.e. which ETFs are good options to take some cash offshore?
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Short zombie stocks
Simon Shares
- Did you sell your dogs?
- Keith McLachlan commented on Conduit Capital and it's not all wannabe Berkshire Hathaway.
- Second session in the first Trading Master Class with IG was on Tuesday. We're looking at a CFD trading plan and this session went live on the IG platform looking for stocks and three buys popped up; Barclays Africa Group (JSE code: BGA), PSG & Woolies (JSE code: WHL).
- The Fat Wallet Show goes back to bonds because last time we started complicated which is not what Fat Wallets are about.
- Small is the new big says Trader Petri and we agree 100%.
Short the zombie stocks
We Get Mail
- Johan
- I would appreciate it very much if you could tell me where one would declare CFD trading outcomes on the SARS form. Have just spent 45 minutes on the phone to SARS help without making any progress.
- Sarah
- What about Bitcoin as an investment?
- Pipcoin is a scam.
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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Sell the dogs (sorry dogs)
Simon Shares
- Ellies (JSE code: ELI) results were as ugly as expected and the company is being kept alive by their bankers at Standard Bank. Megatron is worthless after buying it for R180million in 2008 and spending some half billion keeping it afloat. A few weeks ago in FinWeek I said sell ELI at around 60c and I would not be a buyer now.
- Kumba (JSE code: KIO) results were not bad. They have got their cost down to $34/tonne from closer to $55 previously. It does mean less production to get the lower costs and the market is still in massive over supply but they at least now positioned to (likely) survive.
- SABMiller (JSE code: SAB) got an extra pound with the offering being revised to GBP45 but some minority shareholders are still not happy as the pound has weakened. One can hardly blame SAB or AB Inbev for that but the minority shareholders need 25% to block the deal and that's very unlikely.
- Kristia looks at ETF costs in her blog this week.
- The Fat Wallet Show takes Magnus Heystek to task for suggesting all ETFs are evil and have been mis-sold over the years.
Anchoring - sell the dog
Simon talks about getting rid of those zombie stock in your portfolio; when, why and how. Most importantly they are causing pain and the price you paid for them does not matter.
We Get Mail
- Ryno
- Why hasn't anybody (in SA) tried to replicate the Berkshire model of buying insurance companies and using money of premiums to make investments in big companies ?
- Lindiwe
- What happens if Deutsche Bank goes under and I hold their ETFs?
- Anon
- Any hope for Taste (JSE code: TAS)?
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Private equity coming to the JSE
Simon Shares
- So Trump is real and is now officially the Republican nomination for the US presidency. The point is he can win it and then the question is what will markets do? Likely pretty much like what happened after Brexit, initial panic and then they will move on.
- The first IG Master Class kicked off on Tuesday with a complete CFD share trading system. Nice simple and practical with a follow up webcast on 2 August at 1pm.
- I have added a live link to prices I am prepared to pay for my 'till death do us part portfolio', the link is here.
- Thursday evening we're at the JSE for a Power Hour, Investors are normal, not rational.
- Kristia reviews another Top40 ETF, the Ashburton Top40 (JSE code: ASHT40).
Stuart MacKenzie (CEO Ethos Pvt Equity) and Peter Hayward-Butt (CEO Ethos Capital)
Ethos Capital (JSE code: EPE) will be listing on the JSE in August via a private placement. Ethos is a Private Equity investment vehicle that offers a different investment asset class for patient investors.
We Get Mail
- Michele
- When trading(lazy) indi, resi, etc, what charting do you use for your ema's and entries?
- Melissa
- Why is it that you can buy Satrix ETFs such as STX40, STXDIV & STXRAFI from your stock broker in their online trading platform... And from Satrix directly? What is the difference between where you buy into these? Are you getting less if you don't buy directly from Satrix?
- Thabang
- I have a million and need another million. How do I double it?
Simon Shares
- A lot of people worried abut DBXWD post Brexit, but the issue is it is global so the UK makes up only about 8% while EU is about 13%. I hold the ETF and continue to buy every month.
- The Just One La team has a monster busy week next week. Join us at;
- Kristia asks which ETF?
Drikus Combrink - Capicraft Investment Partners
Locally earnings season has come to an end and markets are at or near all time highs. Are these valuations justified by the earnings we've seen? Good, bad, ugly and any stand outs. Drikus touches on some concerns (SABMiller & Richemont) and suggests really focusing on the core numbers rather than top line numbers that could be skewed by currency moves, mergers or new stores. His major concern remains QE and how that unravels.
We Get Mail
- Ronnie
- What is the recommended amount to start with investing on any share?
- Pierre
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
- Stock Broker vs. FSP
Stock Broker vs. FSP
Simon Shares
- So Brexit is now a thing, or is it? Mostly it is confusion.
- Money Expo this Friday and Saturday.
- My 'till death do us part' portfolio webcast in next week Thursday at 8pm.
- Satrix Indi has been a star ETF with the best returns over 10 years at over 400%.
- Lazy System is long Indi25 and MidCap.
Charles Savage, CEO Purple Capital / Easy Equities
What's the difference between a traditional stock broker and a Financial Services provider (FSP)? Is a FSP risky and do I really own the shares? These are popular concerns so we got Charles on the line to address the issues. We also briefly touched on their new baskets they launched last month.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Simon's till death us part portfolio
Simon Shares
In last weeks show I covered Porter's Five Forces for selecting awesome shares worthy of investing in. This week I delve into my personal 'til death do us part' portfolio explaining why I hold each share. In two weeks (13 July, book here) we'll have a webcast where you can interrogate my selection and also propose shares of your own for inclusion into a 'til death do us part' portfolio.
At the time of recording my portfolio is as below (Find my consistently updated portfolio here)
- BHPBilliton (JSE code: BIL)
- Capitec (JSE code: CPI)
- Citylodge (JSE code: CLH)
- Discovery (JSE code: DSY)
- Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR)
- Metrofile (JSE code: MFL)
- Richemont (JSE code: CFR)
- Sasol (JSE code: SOL)
- Shoprite (JSE code: SHP)
- Woolies (JSE code: WHL)
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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
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- Porter's Five Forces
Finding awesome stocks to invest in
Simon Shares
I am traveling and then on leave, so this week I look at Porter's Five Forces and in next weeks podcast I follow this up by running my 'death do us part' portfolio of stocks through the process. Then two weeks after that (13 July 8pm) we'll do a live webcast whereby you can ask questions about my portfolio and any stocks you may consider worthy of a 'death do us part' portfolio (my portfolio is always published live here). Book for the webcast here.
Porter's Five Forces
- Competitive rivalry within an industry
- Threat of substitute products
- Threat of new entrants
- Bargaining power of customers
- Bargaining power of suppliers
I add;
- Buy winning stocks in winning sectors
- Legislative risk
You'll find a review of Porter's Five Forces here and I also include it in the Boot Camp video on Fundamentals and Technicals in which I include examples from local stocks.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.