Old Mutual Results:

• Surprisingly strong results from Old Mutual.
• Despite stagnant GDP growth and population decline, Old Mutual shows strong growth, indicating market share acquisition.
• Expansion into banking sector questioned due to market saturation.
• Stock analysis: Trading around 1184, showing potential support at 1150 and resistance at 1240-1280.
• Considered cheap with PE ratio around 7.7 and dividend yield over 7%.
• Market consensus predicts an average price target of 14.81.
• Skepticism remains regarding the bank launch and overall upside potential.

MTN Results and Analysis:

• MTN's earnings affected by Naira devaluation in Nigeria.
• Earnings per share down 72%, impacted by tax issues and currency devaluation.
• Stock analysis: Chart showing positive signs, with potential for short-term growth.
• Market consensus includes three strong sells, five holds, and four buys.
• Telco sector struggles due to price pressures and constant capital expenditure.
• Limited upside potential for telco stocks, including MTN.

ADvTech* Results and Operational Leverage:

• ADvTech demonstrates strong operational leverage.
• Operational margins increase due to improved student occupancy rates.
• Revenue up 13%, HEPS up 19%, and dividend per share up 45%.
• Stock analysis: Notably increased in value but still offers potential growth.
• Expectations for around 15% growth in the future.
• Simon Brown expresses satisfaction as a long-term shareholder in ADvTech.

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Insights:

• MPC meeting concludes with no change in rates.
• Governor's hawkish stance indicates possible rate cuts later in the year.
• Inflationary pressures expected to persist due to global factors.
• Delayed rate cuts expected due to inflation concerns.

SALTA Awards Highlights (full details here):

• Simon Brown attends the SALTA Awards.
• Satrix emerges as the big winner with 10 awards.
• People's Choice Awards highlight popular ETFs, with Satrix Top 40 winning for the seventh consecutive year.
• Introduction of a new award category for foreign ETFs.
• Importance of industry events in highlighting the significance of ETFs and listed trackers.

Simon Brown

* Simon holds ungeared positions.

Market Updates:

• Recent news on Markus Jooste's fine and tragic passing prompts reflection on justice and mental health awareness.
• Telkom's sale of its towers business for R6.75 billion highlights strategic shifts and potential opportunities in the telecom sector.
• Ongoing rise in oil prices raises concerns about inflationary pressures and global economic impacts.

Market Analysis and Insights:

Gold's Surge:

• Gold prices hit new all-time highs above $2200, reflecting investor concerns and market sentiment following Jerome Powell's recent statements on inflation and monetary policy.
• Gold mining companies show varied responses, with Pan-African, Goldfields, DRD, and Anglogold Ashanti experiencing gains.

Interest Rates and Economic Outlook:

• Powell's announcement of no immediate rate cuts and a projected total of three cuts for the year signals a cautious approach towards inflation.
• Rising interest rates pose challenges for companies with significant debt burdens, while those with ample cash reserves stand to benefit.

Inflation and Monetary Policy:

• CPI data reflects higher-than-expected inflation rates, prompting speculation about potential rate cuts in South Africa and implications for economic recovery.
• Abenomics, Japan's economic policy experiment, demonstrates the effectiveness of unconventional monetary measures in stimulating growth and combating deflation.

Company Updates and Reflections:

Remgro Results:

• Remgro's net asset value growth raises questions about the effectiveness of its management strategy, despite trading at a significant discount.

Remgro has grown its NAV per share by 5% p.a. since 2010.
Over the same period, the ALSI TR index has done 12% p.a.
If you expect this underperformance to continue (and nothing in their recent capital allocation decisions indicates otherwise), then a fair discount to NAV is…

— Piet Viljoen (@pietviljoen) March 19, 2024

• Contrasting performance with Sabvest Capital highlights the importance of superior returns and effective capital allocation in investment decisions.

Sun International:

• Strong financial results from Sun International underscore challenges and opportunities in the leisure and hospitality sector, amid shifting consumer behaviors and economic uncertainties.

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US Inflation Trends:

• US inflation has remained stagnant at 3.2% since June of the previous year, defying expectations.
• Despite initial projections, inflation has not reached the anticipated 4% mark, staying just above 3%.
• Discussion on potential implications for the economy and monetary policy, including the possibility of a mid-year rate cut.

Local Property Market Concerns:

• Review of recent challenges facing Pick n Pay and its impact on property stocks and landlords.
• Analysis of Hyprop's trading update and its implications for the broader property sector.
• Discussion on potential strategies for landlords facing challenges from tenant closures and renegotiations.

Quantum Food and Market Speculation:

• Examination of recent market speculation surrounding Quantum Foods and its stakeholders.
• Evaluation of market reactions to news events and projections for future stock performance.

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Financial Sector Insights:

• Analysis of ABSA's poor financial results and the broader challenges facing the banking sector.
• Comparison of valuation metrics and performance across various banking stocks.
• Preview of upcoming industry event focusing on financial education and market insights.

Shoprite* Results and Market Comparison

• Discusses the recent Shoprite results, emphasising excellent performance against a high base.
• Highlights Shoprite's significant CapEx spending, customer savings, and market share gains.
• Compares market cap of Pick n Pay and Shoprite, pointing out the latter's cash reserves.
• Reflects on the historical revenue comparison between Shoprite and Pick n Pay over the past 20 years.
• Shoprite's Competitive Position and Stock Analysis
• Questions whether Shoprite is always destined to be an expensive stock.
• Analyzes the current PE ratio, forward PE, and 10-year mean, suggesting that the stock may not be as expensive as perceived.
• Shares consensus forecasts and target prices for Shoprite, indicating a potential undervaluation.
• Expresses the belief that Shoprite at ±R270 might not be as expensive as it appears, drawing parallels with the valuation of Nvidia.
• Shoprite's Success Factors and Pick n Pay's Struggles
• Explores the factors contributing to Shoprite's success, including central distribution centers and efficiency.
• Contrasts Shoprite's strategy with Pick n Pay's challenges, noting a decline in consumer satisfaction.
• Mentions Pick n Pay's recent financial struggles, including a rights issue and debt increase.

Gold and Bitcoin at All-Time Highs

• Addresses the unusual situation of both gold and Bitcoin reaching all-time highs simultaneously.
• Discusses the fears driving gold prices, such as inflation, interest rates, conflicts, and global elections.
• Highlights gold's potential target of $2,500 and the positive impact on gold mining profits.
• Shares the performance of various gold mining stocks over the past three years.

Canal+ Offer for MultiChoice

• Updates listeners on Canal+'s revised offer of R125 per share for MultiChoice, which is currently trading at R113.50.
• Discusses the time value and risk value of the deal, expressing the view that this might be the final offer.

Finance Costs and Corporate South Africa

• Examines the increase in net finance costs for Sea Harvest, attributed to higher interest rates.
• Acknowledges the challenges faced by Corporate South Africa, including Eskom issues, logistic challenges, and rising interest rates.
• Assures listeners that some of these challenges may start to fade away in the future.

* Simon holds ungeared positions.