Living small, an update

Back in 2017 Simon and his wife down scaled into a small (relative) apartment and also got rid of one of their cars again. As they now move again Simon updates in their experience of living small.

Simon Shares

• Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR) results. Revenue up and HEPS lower.
• TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) loses their CEO and posts a decent trading update.
• Jamie Dimon said central banks’ forecasts have been “100% dead wrong”.
• Sasol (JSE code: SOL) trading update, lots of movingp arts, but the market not trusting management? That said stock is cheap and we're seeing some upward movement on price.

hh

Renergen* (JSE code: REN), now what?

Late September the price started breaking down and end September a Tweeter started posting about them.

I'm not going to defend every point raised, that's the job of the company and after an initial poor response, Monday saw a more detailed SENS.

Paid research.

Ultimately all research is paid for. Sometimes it is paid for by the company and here the issue is disclosure.

I think the bigger issue is a complete lack of disclosure in our industry. By FinTwit or the fancy analysts, albeit assume the latter is always talking their book, which is fair.

Perhaps the biggest point from this last few weeks is;

• Know your stock. Like really know it. When I buy a new holding I put together a lis of 3-5 things I like and 3-5 risks. I may be wrong on any of them, but it makes me do the digging and at least have a decent view of both sides of the story.
• Careful of "new" news. It may be accurate (or it may not), but it also often lacks detail which maters. This was mostly the case with the Twitter news on the stock.

Now what for Renergen

• Results next Friday.
• LNG is flowing.
• Helium is not, but company has said they expect the leak repaired this month.
• In short they are in the same place as they were before all this started. BUT.
• They need to do a US capital raise and list in the Nasdaq. A low share price makes this much more dilutive. How this will play out I have no idea.

I hold and continue to hold Renergen*. It was never going to be smooth sailing and the risks are real. Yes they have the gas and helium in the ground, phase one is half working but phase two is large, complex and expensive with real risks.

Simon Shares

• Middle East war could get really bad for inflation and rates if oil prices rise markedly.
• Decent Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) results.
• Horror Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results.
• Local ETF total returns over the last five years.

* I hold ungeared positions.

There are bold traders. here are old traders. There are no bold and old traders.Bold traders

What is a bold trader and why do they die out?

• Wild swings for the fence
  No position size management
  Stop loss for losers
  Enter outside of system and process

Simon Shares

• Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR) trading update, Spur (JSE code: SUR) really has taken the mantel of best QSR/restaurant business on the JSE.

• Very strong US jobs and upward revisions from previous month. But wage inflation only 0.2%. So market was confused but ended happy. Tuesday also saw US 10-year yields moving lower which excited everybody. But I am sceptical, this is only one data point and I think the FOMC hikes at their 31 Oct/01 Nov FOMC meeting.

• Water crisis. This is going to hurt and it not going away any tine soon. Which businesses get hurt most?

• We found a US government bond ETF paying monthly.