🌍 Worldwide Markets — Episode 660

🎙️ The Best and Worst of the JSE in 2025

📅 10 December 2025
🎧 Final episode of the year — back 14 January 2026
💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🏁 Opening Thoughts

• Last podcast of 2025! 🎉

• A huge thank-you to listeners, watchers and everyone who engaged across the year 🙏

• A wild year for markets, but a great year for returns 📈

• Wishing everyone a restful and safe festive break ✈️🌞

🎥 Power Hour Recap — Position Your Portfolio for 2026

📌 Highlights included:

• 🔙 Looking back at 2025’s predictions (keeping it honest!)

• 🤖 The state of AI: spotting bubbles, when to worry, triggers to watch

• 💰 Gold & commodities outlook

• 🛍️ Local retail — opportunities & risks

• 🚀 IPO environment

• 🧭 Positioning for 2026

Watch here.

🥇 Best Performers of the JSE in 2025

🪙 1. Precious Metals: The Dominant Theme of 2025

Gold & PGM miners absolutely owned the market this year. If you weren’t in them… your portfolio lagged the benchmark.

Top returns (total return to 8 Dec):

• 🥇 Sibanye-Stillwater* — +258% 🤯

• 🥈 AngloGold Ashanti* — ~+240%

• 🥉 Northam — +214%

• 🏅 Gold Fields — +195%

• Implats — +153%

• Thungela / Valterra / others — 130–140% range

• Harmony — +119%

📌 Why the boom?

• Gold price exploded early in the year 🌕

• Safe-haven flows amid tariff drama, budgets, DeepSeek shock

• Strong production + not-yet-expensive valuations

💬 Simon: Still bullish on gold miners — not expecting another double, but valuations remain attractive if gold holds current levels.

🎓 2. Education Sector Winners

• 🎓 Stadio — +89%

• 🧑‍🏫 Killed it with distance learning demand and tertiary approvals

• 📉 Curo delisted; ADvTech* solid with +20%

🟣 3. Purple Group* & EasyEquities

• +87% 🚀

• Bull markets = busy brokers

• Results were slightly soft in H2 (bonuses cycle), but long-term story intact

📡 4. Telcos Roar Back (From a Very Low Base)

• 📱 MTN — +76%

• 🔵 Blue Label — +73% (Cell C momentum)

• 🔌 IOCA — +65%

• ☎️ Telkom — +60%

• 🟥 Vodacom — +38%

📌 Simon sold MTN a decade ago during the Nigerian fine panic — and never re-entered. Lesson: When it's time to panic, panic fast.

💰 5. Standout Financials & Miscellaneous

• 🟪 Sygnia — +72%

• 💻 Datatec — +70% (surprise performer)

• 🍗 Astral — +49% (thanks, cheaper maize!)

• 🐓 Rainbow Chicken — +43%

• 🏢 Growthpoint — +48% (big dividends)

• 🧱 Property sector broadly strong again: Redefine, Octodec, etc.

• 🏦 PSG Financial Services — +40%

• 💼 Capitec — +29%

• 🏦 Standard Bank — +31% — notably ahead of Capitec

• 🟧 Naspers — +25% (Simon sees opportunity post-share split)

• 🛢️ Sasol — +25% (still not a favourite)

🛒 6. Retail: The Year’s Big Disappointment

• 🛋️ Lewis — +22% (but deep down the list)

• 🥩 Spur — +15%

• 🍗 Famous Brands — –16%

• 🛒 Shoprite* — –4.6% (value emerging)

• 🛍️ Pick n Pay — –17% (slow turnaround)

• 👗 Mr Price* — –26% (Simon still sees value)

• 👟 Pepkor — weak, but potential for recovery

🔻 Worst Performers of the JSE in 2025

💥 Biggest Losers

• 🚨 Nutun / Transaction Capital legacy — –52%

• 👗 Foschini* (TFG) — –50%

• 📄 Sappi — –46% (ongoing structural challenges)

• 🧱 Afrimat — –43% (Lafarge integration still tough; Simon sees opportunity)

• 💉 Aspen — –43% (lost sterile facility contract; utilization still weak)

• 🔧 Cashbuild — –37% (SA consumers tapped out)

• 📺 eMedia — heavy selling post-unbundling

🛒 Retailers Under Pressure

• 🥀 Spar — –28% (competition from Boxer + Shoprite* + Pick n Pay)

• 👖 Mr Price* — –26%

• 🍔 Famous Brands — –16%

• 🍩 Life Healthcare, Renergen*, ArcelorMittal SA — all struggling

📉 Macro, Risks & 2026 Outlook

🌱 Green Shoots in South Africa

• Early signs of improvement appearing

• Fragile but real: improving volumes, some recovery in SA Inc, stabilising consumer pockets

• REITs & banks starting from low valuations

⚠️ Risks

• Moody's kept SA unchanged; risks tilt to the downside

• A global AI bubble burst would hit emerging markets hard

• External shocks more dangerous than local issues

📈 Global Watch: The Mag 7 & Market Signals

• Bubble warning model: Two giants below the 200-day MA

• Meta dipped back below — but still only one of the seven triggering

• Nvidia chart still healthy

• Gold still bullish

• Oil looks very weak

🤝 Closing the Year

Simon wraps 2025 with gratitude and optimism:

• ✨ “It’s been a year — a wild one — but at least we got returns.”

• ❄️ Be safe this festive season

• 🙌 Special thanks to those working through December (retail, hospitality, logistics)

• 🎙️ Back 14 January 2026 with the annual predictions show featuring Keith McLachlan & Marc Ashton — and, as always, they’ll mark themselves before forecasting ahead.

🔗 Powered By

🏦 Standard Bank Global Markets
🌍 Shyft – the global money app
💸 Cheapest Forex rates, anywhere, anytime

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Worldwide Markets – Episode 659 Show Notes

“It’s Been a Year… But Markets Loved It”

📆 3 December 2025
🎙️ Host: Simon Brown
🏦 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft — the global money app.

🌍 Opening: A Wild Year That Somehow Ended Beautifully

• Despite chaos from January to April — tariffs, collapsing markets, surging yields, rand at 19.90 — markets still delivered a stellar year.

• If you had gone on holiday 1 Jan and checked your portfolio today, you’d think it was a boring year… but Yowza! It was anything but.

• Reminder: Wall Street ≠ Main Street — markets often move ahead of economic reality.

🤖 AI Chaos in January: DeepSeek Shakes the Market

• Chinese model DeepSeek stunned the AI world, training for ~$6m vs OpenAI’s multi-billion dollar spend.

• Raised questions: cheaper API access, open-source surge, China’s rapid AI emergence.

• Set the tone for a year of AI leapfrogging between global players.

🇺🇸 The Trump Factor: Tariffs Everywhere

• Trump sworn in (20 Jan) → tariffs on Mexico & Canada within days.

• Tore up the post-WW2 geopolitical playbook → raised questions of US reliability going forward.

• Triggered global uncertainty but markets... shrugged.

🇿🇦 Local Madness: The Three Budget Attempts

• SA tried three times to get a budget passed.

• Rand collapses into “Liberation Tariff Day”, hits 19.90 → quickly followed by “90 deals in 90 days” promises.

• Only three months in and the year was already unhinged.

📉 April Market Meltdown… Followed by a Stunning Recovery

• US 10-yr at 4.5%, US equities down 15%, local markets collapsing, bonds selling off.

• By December → Nikkei near highs, Europe at highs, JSE powered by gold, US pushed by the Mag 7.

• Markets looked glorious by year-end, despite everything.

🎙️ Upcoming: Best-Performing JSE Stocks of 2025

• Spoiler: Gold miners will dominate.

• Full breakdown coming next week in the final show of 2025.

🖼️ NanoBanana & Gemini: AI Image Tools Blow Simon’s Mind

• Simon has used DALL·E heavily for two years — but:

  • ❌ slow

  • ❌ bad at text

  • ❌ struggles with edits

• NanoBanana + Gemini 3:

  • ⚡ insanely fast

  • 🔠 perfect text edits

  • 🎨 clean output

• Alphabet has:

  • 💰 massive free cash flow

  • 🌐 billions of users

  • 📢 advertising infrastructure

• → Giving them a potential edge in AI monetisation (for now).

📈 AI Stock Bubble: Is It Popping?

• Nvidia chart not bearish — holding support around 165–166 and bouncing.

• Mag 7 vs 200-day moving average:

  • ⬇️ Only Meta is below.

  • Microsoft, Amazon still comfortably above.

• Conclusion:

  • 🤯 We are in a bubble… but it’s not bursting yet.

  • More insights coming in the Power Hour.

[caption id="attachment_55081" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Nvidia weekly chart | 01 December 2025[/caption]

🪙 Bitcoin: The Chart Looks Ugly

• Trump is the most pro-crypto president ever, but BTC isn’t reacting positively.

• Peaked at $126k in October → now around $87k.

• Breaking support levels:

  • ⚠️ If current zone doesn’t hold → sub-$70k likely.

• Gold vs Bitcoin comparison:

  • 🥇 Gold behaves like a hedge.

  • ₿ Bitcoin remains a speculative asset, not a store of value or inflation hedge.

[caption id="attachment_55082" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Bitcoin weekly chart | 02 December 2025[/caption]

🇿🇦 South African GDP: Some Bright Spots

Q3 2025 GDP:

• 📈 +0.5% QoQ

• 📈 +2.1% YoY

• 🚧 Gross fixed capital formation +1.6% → first strong rise since Q2 2023.

  • Means: building → roads, dams, solar, infrastructure — very positive.

🏦 Banks Benefit Most

Reasons:

• 👍 GDP uptick

• ⬆️ Credit upgrades

• ⬇️ Lower expected inflation

• ⬇️ Lower rates coming

• 🟩 Off the grey list

Valuations:

• Price-to-book: 1.0–1.5×

• Yields: high single digits

• Winners depend on style:

  • 💸 Deep value → ABSA, Nedbank

  • ⚖️ Balanced → Standard Bank, FNB

  • 🦄 Premium → Capitec (always expensive)

🏢 Shaftesbury (UK REIT): One to Watch

• Formerly Capital & Counties.

• Own Covent Garden & key West End locations.

• Never recovered from Brexit: from £4 → now £1.42.

• Fundamentals:

  • 💰 Single-digit PE (~8)

  • 📉 Yield 2.7%

  • 📊 Analyst range: £1.48–£2.10

• Not a buy yet — but on the watchlist due to prime assets.

🏘️ SA Property: The Easy Money Is Gone

• SA REITs had:

  • 🚀 Huge 2024

  • 📈 Strong 2025

• Many now trade around NAV:

  • Storage, Spear, Vukile → at/near NAV

  • Octodec → still at discount

• Simon prefers 15% discount to NAV before buying.

• Markets have closed the gap — valuations now full.

• If REITs move to 10–15% premiums, Simon will run.

🔮 Next Week: Final Show of 2025

• Full list of best and worst JSE performers of the year.

• Small caps that surprised everyone.

• Then → back week of 12 Jan with Marc Ashton & Keith McLachlan for the annual predictions episode.

👋 Wrap-Up

A shorter show this week, but packed with market insight, AI breakthroughs, Bitcoin trouble, UK property opportunities, and SA’s slow-but-positive GDP recovery.

As always:
💙 Look after yourself.
🤝 And if you can, look after someone else too.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

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🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 658

📅 26 November 2025
🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown
💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🔥 This Week’s Big Themes

• 📊 JSE 10-year returns — miners dominate!

• 💽 Nvidia results: great numbers, strange market reaction

• 🥇 Harmony goes big on copper

• 🛠️ SA Inc sleeper stock ready to run with GDP recovery

• 📦 Process/Tencent update: super-app dreams + buybacks

• 🧠 Standard Bank launches new AI structured product

• 🎯 Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2026 (8 December)

🏭 Invicta Results — A Deep Value SA Inc Play

• 🏗️ Capital equipment group with exposure to SA, EU, US & Asia.

• 🌍 Tariffs hit their China → US shipments.

• 💰 Valuation extremely cheap:

  • PE < 5

  • Dividend yield > 3%

  • Price-to-book: 0.7

• 🚧 SA’s weak GDP is the drag — but a recovery to 1.8% → 2% → 3% could turn this into a major SA Inc winner.

• ⚙️ Manufacturers sweating assets = more parts sold = small cyclical buffer.

🥢 Prosus / Naspers / Tencent — Cash Flow Turns Positive

• 💵 First positive free cash flow ever → +$59m vs -$104m.

• 💰 Billions of $ in cash reserves.

• 🍔 Food delivery (iFood, etc.) gaining scale + working toward a unified “super-app” model.

• 🧧 Still overwhelmingly driven by Tencent, but:

  • 🎮 Tencent Games

  • 🎵 Tencent Music

  • 📺 Online ads

  • 📱 WeChat ecosystem

  • 🎥 Epic Games stake

  • 🎞️ TikTok-style platforms

• 🔄 Ongoing share buybacks funded by selling Tencent into Hong Kong.

💻 Nvidia — Big Beat, Yet the Stock Falls?

• 📈 Beat on revenue, profit, and guidance — classic Nvidia.

• 🤔 But inventory jumped 32%, raising questions about demand visibility.

• 🏭 Meta reportedly exploring Google chips, with Amazon & Google also pushing their own silicon.

• ⚠️ Non-Nvidia chips = slower + higher power usage → still “B-grade”.

• 📉 Technically:

  • Support at ~$180

  • Next support ~$166

  • Further support ~$150s

• 🎈 Bubble chatter now turning into “yes, it is a bubble” — but bubbles go UP before they pop.

• 📉 Mag-7 200-day MA signals:

  • Only Meta sits below (-10%).

  • Microsoft almost there (+1.5%).

  • Amazon also soft (+5%).

🥇 Harmony — From Gold to Copper Giant?

• 🪙 Buying + building the Eva copper project in Australia.

• 🧱 Production cost: $2.50/lb copper (vs spot ~$4.50–$5.25).

• ⛏️ Harmony is shifting from pure gold → gold + copper, diversifying earnings.

• 🎙️ Jimmy Moyaha’s view:

  • ✔️ Good blend of cyclical exposures

  • ✔️ Some risk hedging between metals

• ⛏️ Deep SA gold mines = harder + costlier → copper is a logical hedge.

• 🔌 Copper = “metal of the future” (again) due to electrification & green tech.

🧠 Standard Bank AI Structured Product (Now Open!)

• 🧺 Basket:

  • 🇺🇸 US Tech (NASDAQ)

  • 🇨🇳 China Tech (KWEB)

• 💸 Auto-call feature:

  • Year 1: If both indices are positive → 16% payout

  • If not, each subsequent year with positivity → 16% per year

  • Max 5-year horizon = up to 80%

• 🛡️ Capital protection:

  • 100% capital back if indices not more than 30% down at maturity

• 💵 Minimum: R25,000 (+ R1,000 increments)

• 🗓️ Closing: 3 December 2025

• 📍 Available via OST or your stockbroker.

📈 10-Year JSE Winners — The Miners Dominate

🥇 Top Performers (per-year returns, excluding dividends)

• 🥇 Harmony Gold — 43.5% p.a. (3600% total!)

• 🥈 Gold Fields — 37%

• 🥉 Kumba Iron Ore — 33% (42% incl. dividends)

• ⚒️ Exxaro — 28% + 12% dividends

• ⚙️ Northam Platinum — 28.5%

• 🇬🇧 Argent — 27% (first non-miner)

• 💼 African Rainbow Capital / Valterra — 25%

• 🏦 Capitec — 22.5% + dividends → 24% total

• 🛠️ Bell Equipment, Merafe, Sibanye — strong ~19%+

• 🌐 Datatec — 19% + 17% dividends → 37%

📉 Big Losers (per-year declines)

• 🪓 Eskom (ELI / ACO) — -26%

• 📦 Nampak — -18%

• 🛏️ City Lodge — -14.5%

• 🧪 ArcelorMittal — -14%

• 💊 Aspen — -10%

• 🛢️ Sasol — -10%

• 🏘️ Balwin — -7%

• 🍔 Famous Brands — -7%

• 🧱 PPC — -5%

• 🛒 Pick n Pay — -5%

• 🏥 Netcare — -4.8%

• 🧺 Woolworths — 2.4% p.a. (only 1.4% incl. dividends)

📊 Top 40 — 10-Year Benchmark Performance

• 📈 118% total return over 10 years

• 📉 CAGR: 8.2% (≈10.5% incl. dividends)

• 📌 Best period: 11.6% (2019)

• 📌 Worst: ~3% during crisis

• 🎯 Real return (CPI ~5%): ≈7% — very respectable.

📣 Call to Action

💬 Tell us in the comments:

• Which 10-year winners do you own?

• Which stats shocked you most?

• What’s your best-performing JSE stock of the last decade?

Worldwide Markets — Episode 657 (19 November 2025) 🗓️📈

🔥 This Week on Worldwide Markets

Good things are happening in South Africa 🇿🇦, bubble-watching on global markets 🎈, fresh ETF listings from Ninety One 📊, strong local results (Astral 🐔, WeBuyCars 🚗, Ninety One 💼), and the Year-End Power Hour opens for bookings 🎤✨.

🎈 Bubble Talk: When Does It Pop?

Guest Insight: Citigroup’s Dirk Willer (via Odd Lots podcast)
Definition: A bubble = asset prices 2 standard deviations above the 1-year average.

His exit rule:

➡️ Identify the drivers — the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta).
➡️ The bubble pops when 2 of the 7 fall below their 200-day EMA 📉.

Current Status:

• Meta: 12% below the 200-day ❗

• Microsoft: +5.4% above

• Amazon: +6.5% above

• Others still safely above.

👉 So we’re halfway to bubble-popping territory.
👉 But: bubbles make money on the way up — timing the exit is the key.

Fun fact: Alphabet has negative net debt (more cash than debt) 💰.

📊 Ninety One Lists Two Actively Managed Income ETFs

Two new AMETFs hit the JSE:

🇿🇦 91DINC (Local Income ETF)

• Quarterly dividends

• TER: ~0.25% (incl VAT)

• Tax-free account eligible

• ~20-year unit trust track record

🌍 91GINC (Global Income ETF)

• Accumulating (rolls up dividends)

• ~9% USD yield target

• Pays in ZAR on the JSE

• ~4.5% current USD yield

Full explainer webcast here 🎥.

🇿🇦 Good Things Happening in South Africa

Yes, things are still tough — but several green shoots 🌱:

1️⃣ Greylist Exit

SA officially removed — major reputational win ✔️.

2️⃣ Medium-term Budget Positives

• Debt trajectory stabilising (may not hit 80%).

• Primary budget surplus — only ~6 countries globally manage this.

• Bond yields down ≈2%, reducing future borrowing costs.

• Precious metals boom boosting revenue 🪙⬆️.

3️⃣ New Inflation Target

• Formalised 3% target, with a 2–4% band 🎯.

• Helps competitiveness for exporters like citrus 🍊.

4️⃣ MPC Outlook

• Inflation at 3.4% — within band

• Simon expects a rate cut on Thursday ✂️💸.

5️⃣ Credit Rating Upgrade

S&P: Upgraded SA from 3-notches Junk → 2-notches Junk.

• First upgrade in 16 years ⭐

• Positive outlook — another upgrade possible.

Moody’s review coming in December.

6️⃣ Load Shedding Gone (for now)

• Effectively no load shedding for months ⚡😊.

• Operation Vulindlela turning to Transnet next 🚢.

7️⃣ GNU Functioning Smoothly

• Budget passed without drama

• Coalition politics fading into the background — exactly where they should be.

⚠️ But:

• Chronic unemployment (31%+) 😔

• Inequality, poverty, crime remain severe issues
  → Growth is the only way to tackle these sustainably.

🎤 Year-End Power Hour — Book Now!

Theme: Position Your Portfolio for 2026

• Limited in-person seats

• Webcast available

• Simon reviews last year’s predictions (and mocks himself 🤣)

• Then looks at 2026: gold, rand, upgrades, tariffs, etc.

👉 Book here

📈 Company Results Round-Up

🐔 Astral Foods

A horror first half… turned around:

What improved:

• Avian flu mostly gone; vaccination up to 30%

• Power issues stabilised

• Independent water supply

• Yellow maize prices lower 🌽⬇️

• Pricing back to Dec 2023 levels

Outlook:
CEO Gary Arnold expects a strong FY to Sept 2025. More upside if maize stays low.

🚗 WeBuyCars

Trading update spooked the market — PE dropped from mid-20s → high teens.

Pressures:

• Cheap new Chinese cars (R300k range) compete aggressively 🇨🇳

• Slower earnings growth (~mid-teens)

Their response:

• Lower buying prices in segments competing with Chinese brands

• Future tailwind: cheap Chinese cars will enter second-hand market soon

• Record 16,000 monthly sales

• Scale still growing

Valuation:
Simon sees value emerging in the low-40s 👀.

💼 Ninety One (Asset Manager)

• Strong numbers; bull markets = good for AUM

• Market sold it off (priced for perfection?)

• PE ~11, DY ~6% — cheap metrics

• Analysts: 2 buys, 2 holds, 1 strong sell

• Price target avg ≈ R47.34 (around current price)

🏛️ Coronation

• Last year’s SARS case win inflated the base
  → No repeat special dividends
  → Lower YoY numbers expected.

💱 Rand & Commodities

🇿🇦 Rand

• Broke below 17/USD last week (first time since early 2023)

• Now back around 17.20

• Trend still strengthening — more in the Year-End Power Hour.

🪙 Gold

• Holding firm, not running

• Key levels:

  • Support: ~R39,20

  • Risk: Lower highs + lower lows if it breaks

• Currently steady around R4,050.

📉 Markets & Crypto

• S&P drawdown: ~3.5–4%

• Nasdaq: ~5–5.5%
  → Much panic for not much movement 🤷‍♂️.

₿ Bitcoin

• Looking rough under R90,000

⚙️ Nvidia Earnings — Wednesday

A major market catalyst.
Bad numbers could turn sentiment quickly.

🔭 Coming Up Next Week

Simon looks at JSE top performers over the last 10 years 📈
(Spoiler: several gold miners… but almost all gains from the last year.)

Then it’s December wrap-ups → and back in January.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Worldwide Markets – Episode 656 (12 November)

Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand 🌍💸

1) JSE Under Pressure 🏛️⚖️

Two issues in the spotlight:

a) Competition Commission Complaint
A2X alleges JSE is being anti-competitive around BDA & settlement. This could have a long regulatory process. No quick outcomes expected.

b) Matengu Allegations
Matengu alleges share price manipulation and claims to have emails implicating JSE directors.

• JSE has fired back and asked: Produce the emails.
• There is also a clear seller overhang (ex-director wanting out), which explains the price pressure more plausibly.

Takeaway: Overhang selling often looks like manipulation. But without proof, it's just selling pressure.

2) Should We Scrap SENS Announcements & HEPS? 🤔📰

The JSE is consulting on two potential changes:

• Reduce some SENS announcements (e.g., administrative ETF notices, floating rate resets, etc.)
• Possibly remove HEPS (Headline Earnings Per Share)

Simon’s view:
🚫 Do not remove HEPS.
HEPS is invaluable as an adjusted earnings measure, especially in SA where one-off corporate events are common. The process cost argument doesn’t justify removing a critical metric.

4) Don’t Fight the Trend 🟢📈

Two strong trends right now:

a) Gold 🥇

• Back above $4,100/oz after two brief red weeks.
• Long-term trend still strongly up.
• No point trying to call tops – enjoy the trend while it runs.

b) Rand 🇿🇦💪

• Strengthening since the “liberation blowout” in April (~19.90).
• Now around R17.14 – and trend still down (strengthening).
• This is not just USD weakness.
• Big inflows into SA bonds + stronger commodity prices supporting.

Next key level: R17 → If broken, expect move to low R15s.

5) Results Round-Up 📊💼

6) KAP (PG Bison, UniTrans, beds, auto aftermarket) 🛏️🚚🛠️

• Earnings slump → PE looked blown out, but forward expectations show return to single-digit PE once capex is absorbed.
• Small-caps remain deeply unloved.
• Worth watching, but needs a catalyst.

7) Gold Miners – Pick Your Favourite ⛏️✨

If gold keeps running, most producers will make serious money.

Simon’s preferences:

• AngloGold Ashanti* (ANG) – strong price action, holding trends well.
• Pan African (PAN) – up 7x since Oct 2022.

Others:

• Harmony – now has meaningful copper exposure.
• Sibanye* – gold + PGMs.

ETF option: Satrix RESI* – doubled this year (helped heavily by gold).

⏳ How long to hold?
While gold trend remains intact.

Events & Dates 🗓️

• Monday 17 November @ 10:00 – 91 Income ETFs webcast
  Book: justonelap.com/events
• Friday 8 December – Final Power Hour:
  “Position Your Portfolio for 2026”
  Bookings open next week.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 655

Date: 5 November
Host: Simon Brown
Powered by: Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft – the global money app for travel, payments & investing.

🎙️ This Week’s Big Questions

• When will markets crash? 🤯📉

• Will we finally get a sovereign ratings upgrade? 🇿🇦🔼

• Optasia* lists… but no IPO fireworks 💼🔔

• SA vehicle sales accelerate again 🚗📈

🚀 Shyft Migration Update

If you are an OST/Webtrader/ASI client — but have not yet been notified about migrating to Shyft — that simply means your group is scheduled for 2026, once remaining features roll out.
🔗 Watch the full Power Hour explainer:

🔔 Optasia* Listing – A Calm Debut

• IPO priced at R19

• Day 1: Opened R20.75 → Closed R19.38 (≈ +2% on a -2% market day)

• No big pop → but not a failure

• Existing shareholders + exec team locked in for 185–360 days

• Market consensus sees R25–R26 within 2–3 years if growth executes

Simon’s stance:
✔️ Applied → got only 14% allocation
✔️ Holding
✔️ Looking to build the position over time

🚗 SA Vehicle Sales – Strong Again

October sales: 55,960 units
➡️ Best October since 2014
📈 Driven partly by car rental fleets restocking for the holiday season
✅ Still good news for motor retailers

🇿🇦 Potential Sovereign Ratings Upgrade?

• SA remains junk with Moody’s, Fitch & S&P Global

• Outlooks have shifted flat → positive

• S&P may consider upgrade in November

• MTBPS next week: Expected to show higher-than-budgeted tax revenue
  → Thanks to booming gold & PGM prices ⚒️💰

But…
💬 Citadel’s Maarten Ackerman: “Not so fast — upgrade may still take time.”

Key stat:
Foreigners purchased the most SA government bonds (Aug–Sep) since records began in 1994 — even while we remain junk.

🪙 Gold – Consolidating at $3,950–$4,050

• Price: $3,964 at recording

• Analyst view (Petri Redelinghuys from Herenya Capital Advisors):
  → Good entry zone for those who missed the earlier run

• Chart setup: Sideways consolidation, waiting for next leg

🌏 China–US Trade “Peace”?

• Trump offers tariff cuts on fentanyl ingredients

• China offers:

  • Soybean purchases 🌱 (they buy 50% of global supply)

  • Lifting rare earth export restrictions for 1 year 🧲

Reality:
China still holds the real leverage here.

📉 Market Crash Fears – Let’s Talk About It

✔️ Will markets crash?

Yes. Guaranteed. Always have. Always will.

❓ When?

Nobody knows. Not even the clever people.

🧱 Bull markets climb a wall of worry.

There are always scary headlines.

🎯 Key Takeaways

• Being in cash waiting for the crash is costly.

• Even when crashes happen, markets often do not fall back to where you sold.

• Timing the bottom is even harder.

• If you're worried → trim, rebalance, don’t go 100% cash.

Stats (S&P 500 historical):

Conclusion:
Staying invested wins — unless you’re already drawing retirement income.

🏁 Final Thoughts

• Markets will crash — we just don’t know when

• Keep investing, keep rebalancing, don’t try to be clever

• And remember: cash is a drag over the long term

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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🌍 World Wide Markets Ep. 654 — 29 October 2025

🎙️ “Gold took us up … and gold will take us down.”

🪙 Gold Takes the JSE for a Ride

• Gold led the JSE to record highs — and now it’s leading it back down.
• Year-to-date returns:
  • Gold +49 %, Harmony +87 %, Pan African +126 %, DRD +150 %, Gold Fields +162 %, AngloGold Ashanti* +167 %!
  • Excluding dividends!
• Simon notes clear support around $3,600-3,800, with further downside likely.
• The Top 40 is up ~38 % YTD, but the Resources Index (Resi) is +93 % — remove that, and the market’s ~20 %.
• Translation: half this year’s gains came from gold ⛏️. When gold falls, the JSE will feel it.
• Simon spots a “kangaroo-tail” reversal candle — 10 straight green months is unprecedented 📉.
• Expect short-term weakness but the long-term gold story isn’t over — deficits, inflation, and de-dollarization keep the bull case alive 💰.
• For those who “missed” gold, this pullback may be your chance — scale in slowly rather than catching the knife 🪙⚖️.

Top40 Monthly chart 2025

💡 Optasia IPO Extended

• Fintech AI & machine-learning listing — application deadline extended to Thursday 30 Oct (lunchtime).
• Simon applied after FirstRand took a 20.1 % stake at R 19, top of the range 💼.
• Despite muted enthusiasm from guests on Stock Watch, the institutional interest makes it intriguing 🤖📊.
• Allocation risk remains — expect to receive only a fraction 🎟️.

🚗 WeBuyCars: Market Hits the Brakes

• Trading update disappointed; share price −13.5 %.
• HEPS: 222 – 226 c vs ~240 c consensus ➡️ P/E ≈ 20 (“fair”).
• Was pricey at ~30× earnings, now more realistic ⚖️.
• Chinese car imports may start competing at lower price points 🇨🇳 → potential pressure on used-car margins.
• Still, for those who missed the run, this could be a re-entry point 🚘.

🏠 Balwin Results

• Decent set of numbers — growth across Western Cape, KZN and Gauteng.
• No dividend 💧 → debt reduction focus.
• Sector tailwinds: lower rates + improving bond approvals (Uber = Ooba).
• Strong demand for mid-tier and affordable housing 🏗️.
• Simon holds Calgro M3* in the same space.

⛏️ Commodities & PGMs Holding Up

• Anglo American & Kumba raise guidance 👍 → stronger pricing and better rail flow.
• Valtera still recovering from floods, but higher PGM prices help.
• Platinum breakout ⚙️ $ 1 550 + after a decade range bound 850 – 1 100.
• Palladium rebounding too ( $ 1 700 resistance ).
• Trend: higher highs and higher lows 📈.

🏪 Pick n Pay: Slow Road to Recovery

• Still loss-making but loss shrinking 📉.
• Adjusting for Boxer, cash and tax deferrals → valuation ≈ –R 3 billion (cheap on paper).
• Sean Summers cautious: recovery will be slower than hoped.
• Needs to win market share from Shoprite* – a tough battle 🛒🆚.

🇨🇳🇺🇸 US-China Trade & Tariffs

• Possible trade deal emerging 🎯 — China may buy soybeans, ease rare-earth curbs.
• Perception = bullish for equities, bearish for gold (short term).
• US markets closing at record highs 📈 — a deal would supercharge them.
• Meanwhile, US Supreme Court to decide whether Trump can impose tariffs unilaterally.
  • Lower court said no → prediction markets expect he’ll lose ⚖️.
  • Outcome could remove tariffs entirely – massive implications for trade and exporters.
  • Retroactive refunds possible? Unclear 💵❓

🏦 Shift Migration Update

• Standard Bank Online Share Trading, AutoShare Invest and WebTrader are migrating to the Shyft app 📲.
• Phase 2 migration this week → details at justonelap.com/powerhour.
• If you haven’t been contacted, your turn comes in 2026 (probably after March).
• Shift offers cheapest Forex rates and multi-asset access globally 🌍💳.

💬 Final Thought

“Gold gave us the party — and now it’s calling last rounds.”
Expect volatility, opportunities, and reversals — but don’t lose the big picture.

Simon Brown
🎧 Worldwide Markets Ep. 654 | Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft
💙 Look after yourself — and someone else too.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Worldwide Markets Ep. 653 – Gold Crashes, Markets Burn, and Optasia’s JSE Listing

🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown
📅 Recorded: Tuesday, 21 October 2025
📈 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & Shyft – The global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand.

💥 Local Markets Crushed

A brutal day on the JSE as the market closed down 2.5%, with resources tumbling 7.8% despite a steady rand (R17.43).

• Gold miners collapsed: Implats & Sibanye -10%, Gold Fields & Harmony -9%, AngloGold* -8%.

• PGMs also fell hard: Northam & Impala down over 7%.

• Retail pain: TFG* dropped a shocking 16.6% after a poor trading update, dragging down Pepkor, Mr Price*, and even WeBuyCars.

• U.S. markets were red but only mildly so — calm compared to SA’s bloodbath.

🪙 Gold: After 9 Green Weeks, the Pullback Arrives

Gold finally broke its 10-week winning streak, plunging from $4,378 to $4,122 — a $250 drop in two days 😬

• Simon notes this was inevitable after nine straight weeks of gains.

• Likely short-term support around $3,950–$4,000, with potential consolidation below $4,000.

• Despite the scare, the Satrix Resi is still up over 100% for 2025.
  💡 Lesson: even in a bull run, sharp corrections are part of the journey.

🧠 Optasia: AI Fintech Listing on the JSE

A major new listing — Optasia (code: OPA) — is set to debut 3 November.
Valued at around R20–25 billion, it’s one of the largest fintech listings in years.

Key Facts:

• Business: Micro-loans & airtime credit to the unbanked and underbanked.

• Reach: 38 markets (Africa, Asia, Middle East, Europe).

• Scale:

  • 120 million customers/month

  • 32 million loans/day

  • $13m total daily loan value

• Average loan: $5 (microfinance) and $0.25 (airtime credit)

• Defaults: impressively low at 1.14% 💪

• Backers: Standard Bank, RMB, EcoBank, MTN, Vodacom, Airtel, Zain, and more.

• Listing price range: R15.50–R19.00 per share.

• Lockup: 180 days for sellers, 365 for directors.

• Existing shareholder exit: Ethos Capital (EPE) partially selling down.

Simon’s Take 🎯

• Solid business with real revenue and strong growth (≈90% YoY in 2025H1).

• But… valuation not cheap (PE ≈ mid-20s).

• Concerns over allocation uncertainty and currency/regulatory risks in frontier markets.

• 💬 Verdict: “I’m not applying — great business, fair valuation, but not compelling enough.”

🚗 CMH* (Combined Motor Holdings): Excellent Results & Share Buyback

Vehicle sales hit their highest levels since 2015, and CMH delivered stellar numbers 🚙💨

• Headline earnings: +25%

• No dividend this time, but a 15% share buyback instead.

• Strong exposure to Indian & Chinese brands (nearly 50% of sales) plus Suzuki, now SA’s #2 brand.

• Legacy luxury brands are struggling.

• Historic returns:

  • Share price last decade: 12%

  • Dividend yield last decade: ~10%

  • Combined ≈ 22% annual shareholder return over the past decade! 📊

The Twist

Founder Jeb McIntosh (79) may be looking to gradually exit — Simon suspects the buyback could facilitate this.
Still, Simon’s holding: “I’m not selling — unless they offer me a crazy price.”

🏦 Upcoming Event: Standard Bank Client Migration

📢 Important for OST, WebTrader, and AutoShare Invest clients:
Standard Bank is migrating investment clients to Shift.
Join Simon Brown and Adish from Standard Bank on Tuesday, 28 October, 5:30 PM (Rosebank or Webcast).
🔗 Register at justonelap.com/events

💬 Final Thoughts

Markets can be messy, but knowledge is power.
Simon wraps up with his usual reminder:

“Look after yourself — and if you can, look after somebody else too.” ❤️

🔑 Episode Summary

• 🪙 Gold’s epic run ends with a sharp pullback.

• 📉 JSE hammered by resources & retailers.

• 🤖 Optasia brings fintech AI excitement to the JSE.

• 🚗 CMH delivers strong results and a massive buyback.

• 🏦 Big changes coming for Standard Bank investing clients.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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🎙️ Worldwide Markets Ep. 652 — “Dividends, Gold, and Gearing Gone Wild”
📅 15 October 2025 | Hosted by Simon Brown | Powered by Standard Bank SHYFT

🪙 Gold Rush Continues

Gold is unstoppable! 🚀
Now trading above R4,100/oz, the yellow metal has clocked eight consecutive green weeks — the longest winning streak since early 2024.

Simon digs into:

• 📈 Historical patterns since the pandemic: jump → consolidate → jump again
• 🏦 Central banks as persistent buyers — but what happens if they ever stop?
• 🤔 With gold having doubled in three years, central banks’ reserves are now worth far more — will they slow purchases?

Gold weekly chart

🧬 ASP Isotopes & the Renegen* Deal

🔥 The small-cap buzz continues!

ASP Isotopes (📊 JSE-listed) soared 34% after being added to a Morgan Stanley National Security Index, thanks to its defense-related tech.

• 🧪 ASP will acquire Renegen at a ratio of 0.09i ASP shares per Renegen share.
• 📈 The stock was badly mispriced at listing, now settling into realistic levels.
• 🧠 Simon’s take: it’s partly a meme stock, but still delivering products and momentum.

🌍 Tariff Turmoil & Trump Tactics

🗞️ Trump shocked markets promising 100% tariffs on China, triggering a:

• 📉 2% drop on the S&P 500
• 📉 3% drop on the Nasdaq
  …before walking it all back two days later. Classic “art of the deal.” 🎭
  💬 China’s latest export data (+8.4% YoY) shows resilience, finding new global buyers despite tensions.

💥 Crypto Carnage: Over-Geared Traders Wiped Out

📉 Bitcoin slid 10%, altcoins dropped 20–50% — and many over leveraged traders got liquidated.
Simon’s tough love 💬:

“If a 10% move wipes you out, you’re not trading — you’re gambling.” 🎲

He explains gearing simply:

• 💰 10× gearing = a 10% drop → total wipe out.
• 💰 50× gearing = just a 2% drop → goodbye capital.
• Crypto’s already volatile — no need for extra leverage.

💸 JSE Large Caps: Great Dividend Yields

Following last week’s small-cap value picks, Simon scans big JSE names offering strong income 📊:

🏦 Banks

• Nedbank (9%) – solid and cheap.
• ABSA (8%) – attractive and trading below NAV.
• Standard Bank (7%) – quality but pricier.
• FirstRand (5.2%) – premium quality, lower yield.
• Investec (6.5%) – decent, but less excitement.

🏭 Industrials & Commodities

• Tungela (50%) – monster yield, but coal outlook uncertain.
• Omnia (special dividend) – mixed on chemicals.
• AVI (9%) – steady margins, strong chart 📊.
• Tiger Brands (7%) – turnaround story under new management.
• Reunert – defense & cabling play; value emerging.

🏠 Property

• Equites, Growthpoint, Fairvest, Hyprop, Resilient – 6–8% yields, but NAV discounts vary.

🎰 Leisure & Retail

• Sun International (10%) – betting becoming core growth area 🎲
• Mr Price* (4%) – comeback potential.
• Woolies (2.5%) – still struggling with fashion 👗
• Shoprite* (2.7%) – premium, low yield.

💼 Asset Managers

• Old Mutual (9%), Coronation (8%), Sygnia – benefit from rising markets.
• Alexander Forbes – solid income play.

📡 Telcos & Others

• Telkom – undervalued, post-Swiftnet debt cut, potential MTN suitor 📶
• Grindrod – ports booming, Africa trade tailwinds 🌍
• Bitvest (4%) – cash generative, debt manageable, chart support at R200.

🧾 Key Takeaways

✅ Gold’s bull market still strong — no legs down yet.
✅ ASP Isotopes & Renegen merger heating up.
✅ Beware leverage — crypto is wild enough.
✅ Dividend stocks offering serious income on the JSE.
✅ Buffett Power Hour this Thursday — don’t miss it! 💼✨

🎧 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & SHYFT —
💳 The global money app for travel, shopping, payments, and investments, with the lowest Forex rates.

👉 Subscribe to Worldwide Markets wherever you get your podcasts.
💬 Follow Simon on Twitter/X: @SimonPB

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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🎙️ Worldwide Markets Ep. 651 — “Value on the JSE? We Find the Cheapest Shares” (8 October 2025)

📅 Recorded Tuesday afternoon | Powered by Standard Bank & SHYFT

💡 Episode Overview

This week Simon Brown digs into value on the JSE — where the cheapest shares might be hiding 👀.
He also unpacks:

• The Purple Group* pullback 🟣
• ETF returns so far in 2025 📈 (spoiler: it’s been a wild year!)
• Upcoming Standard Bank Power Hour: Investing Like Warren Buffett 🧠

🟣 Purple Group: Pullback or Panic?

• After a huge rally to R2.74, Purple Group has pulled back — but no need to panic.
• Likely to find support around R2.10, with upside targets around R3.50 💪.
• Expecting strong trading updates by late October or early November.
• With markets, gold, crypto, and offshore assets all flying, Purple should benefit as trading volumes rise.

📊 2025 ETF Returns — A Booming Year

Simon’s recent ETF analysis shows a banner year for SA ETFs (excluding dividends):
🏆 Top Performers:

• Satrix RESI* +118% 🪨
• Satrix Shariah +69% 🌙 (thanks to heavy gold exposure)
• 10X Top 20, Rafi 40*, Gold ETFs, SWIX, and EasyETFs Global Equity (Active) all strong 📈

📉 Laggards:

• Signia Health Innovation −9.2% 🧬
• India ETF −8.7% 🇮🇳
• Global Bonds & Healthcare ETFs slightly negative

🪙 Overall takeaway: 2025 is a golden year — literally and figuratively.

💸 Value Hunt: The Cheapest Shares on the JSE

Simon’s criteria for spotting value gems 💎:

• PE ratio: 0–10 (profitable companies only)
• Dividend yield: >0.01% (sign of free cash flow)
• Price-to-book: <1 (trading below net asset value)

🔍 Highlights from the Screen

Property & Small Caps:
🏢 Ascension, Safari, Emira, Octodec — deep discounts to NAV, juicy yields (~8%).
🚍 Putprop — Western Cape bus operator, tiny but intriguing (PE 5.7, yield 3.5%).
🏠 Calgro M3* — low-cost housing builder, due for results soon; Baldwin also looking attractive.

Media & Industrials:
📺 E-Media — PE 4.8, dividend ~12%, cheap but illiquid.
🪵 Sappi & Mondi — paper industry under pressure.
⚙️ Invicta — PE <5, yield 3%, cutting prefs and improving cash flow.
🪓 Master Drilling — exposure to gold & copper, global operations, decent IP.
📦 Mpact — tied up in Caxton’s bid & Competition Commission delays.

Consumer & Financials:
🛋️ Lewis Group — “a bank disguised as a furniture store,” 10%+ yield, strong results.
🏦 Investec, ABSA, Nedbank — cheap banks with high yields and solid balance sheets.
🧓 Old Mutual — ~9% yield, launching a bank soon; well positioned in bull markets.
🚗 Motus & CMH* — benefiting from decade-high vehicle sales.
📦 Stor-age*, Spear, Growthpoint — steady property plays; prefer those with discounts to NAV.

Other Notables:
🐟 Sea Harvest & Oceana — solid businesses, but “fish stocks make for tough investments.”
🪙 Sabvest — style value play, small discount to NAV.
💼 HCI — resolved union cash flow issues, trades below asset value.
🎙️ African Media Entertainment — great yield (10%), but beware of liquidity traps.

⚠️ Simon’s Key Takeaways

✅ There is value on the JSE, but many bargains are illiquid — trade carefully.
✅ Liquidity traps can hurt even when valuations look great.
✅ Dividend yields + solid cash flow are strong signals of resilience.
✅ Always DYOR — “Not financial advice.”

🧭 Final Thoughts

2025 continues to be a strong year for gold, ETFs, and SA banks, with pockets of deep value emerging across small caps and property.

💬 “Markets that are going higher make us feel richer — but if we’re positioned right, they actually make us richer.” — Simon Brown

🔗 Powered by Standard Bank & SHYFT

🌍 SHYFT, the global money app from Standard Bank — travel, shop, pay, and invest globally with the best Forex rates anytime, anywhere.

👋 Closing Note:
Nine more episodes to go this year!
Simon signs off: “Look after yourself — and if you can, look after somebody else as well.” ❤️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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🌍 Worldwide Markets Episode 650 – 1 October 2025

Hosted by Simon Brown
Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & the Shyft Global Money App 💳🌐

🔑 Key Topics This Week

📈 Purple Group* & EasyEquities

• Purple Group share price up ~150% this year 🚀

• Results driven by non-revenue income (inactivity fees & loyalty program)

• Strong client acquisition via Capitec & Discovery Bank partnerships 🏦

• Trading volumes soaring in a bullish market 💹

Purple Group | YTD to close 29 Sep 25

💰 Top 40 hits 100,000

• Thanks to gold miners & PGMs ⛏️

• AngloGold Ashanti* up nearly 200% in 2025 ✨

• Bitcoin also at record highs: $110k – $115k ₿

🇿🇦 Bull case for SA Inc.

• Eskom turns profit ⚡, load shedding largely behind us

• FAFTA gray list exit expected late October ✅

• Stronger rand & softer oil price supporting consumers ⛽

• Lower inflation, potential rate cuts in the US vs. SA rates hold 💵

• Bond yields easing = cheaper government borrowing 💸

🛒 Boxer trading update

• Like-for-like sales up 5.3%, turnover +13.9% 📊

• EPS guidance strong but valuation looks pricey vs. Shoprite* 🍏

🤖 Nvidia’s* self-dealing investments

• Billions poured into OpenAI, CoreWeave & Mistral 🧠

• Risks of dot-com style "self-dealing" re-emerging ⚠️

• Simon remains a cautious Nvidia shareholder

📉 Global delistings trend

• JSE listings halved over 20 years 📉

• US market also down from 8,000+ to ~4,000 listings

• Private equity & venture capital keep firms private longer ⏳

📅 Upcoming Event

Standard Bank Power Hour – Warren Buffett: Blueprint for a Lifetime of Investing 🦫💡
🗓️ 16 October, 17:30 SAST
📍 Rosebank, Johannesburg (in-person & webcast)

📝 Simon’s Notes

• Obsidian vs Evernote: experimenting with second-brain systems 📚🧠

• Thanks for all listener feedback 🙏

🎙️ Closing

10 more episodes left before Simon’s year-end break ✈️
“Look after yourself, and if you can, look after somebody else too.” ❤️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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🌍 Worldwide Markets Ep. 649 – Building a Second Brain 🧠✨

Recorded on 24 September 2025 (from the beach!) – Hosted by Simon Brown

This week, Simon takes a break from market talk 📉📈 to explore something equally powerful: how to manage the flood of data and information we face every day. Instead of focusing on stocks, currencies, or central banks, he dives into the idea of creating a "second brain" — a system to capture, organize, and use knowledge effectively.

🔑 Episode Highlights

• 🧠 Brains are great at decisions – quick choices like what to eat or which route to take. But storing and retrieving data? Not so much.

• ✍️ Handwritten notes win – research shows writing helps memory more than typing. Simon shares how digital handwritten notes improve recall.

• 📅 Calendars as to-do lists – forget endless apps. Simon’s hack: putting everything (from work deadlines to buying milk 🥛 & whiskey 🥃) in his calendar for one central source of truth.

• 📚 Building a Second Brain (by Tiago Forte) – the PARA + CODE framework that inspired Simon’s system.

🗂️ PARA Framework

• P – Projects 🎯: Active tasks (e.g. upcoming presentations, podcast prep).

• A – Areas 🌐: Broader ongoing themes (like camping 🏕️ or tech gadgets 📸).

• R – Resources 📖: Interesting but general material worth saving.

• A – Archive 📦: Where used or finished items end up.

🔄 CODE Method

• C – Capture 📸: Snap photos, clip articles, jot notes into Evernote.

• O – Organize 🗃️: Sort into PARA a few times a week.

• D – Distill 💡: Pull out the key ideas & insights.

• E – Express 🗣️: Use the information for podcasts, presentations, articles, or even shopping lists 🛒.

🛠️ Tools Simon Uses

• Evernote 📱💻: Clunky but everywhere (phone, laptop, e-reader, iPad). Paid version makes it work seamlessly.

• Tried but moved on: Obsidian (too complex), Notion (powerful but not his fit), Raindrop.io (good for bookmarking but limited).

🎯 Why it Works

✔️ Frees up mental space – no more stressing about remembering.
✔️ Keeps data accessible & actionable.
✔️ Turns chaos (screenshots, random notes, cluttered camera rolls) into a system.
✔️ Supports Simon’s creative and teaching work.

🙌 Your Turn

Simon invites listeners to share their hacks:
👉 How do you manage the constant stream of info?
👉 Do you have your own “second brain” system?

Send us your thoughts, tools, and strategies 💬.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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💡 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments, and investments with the best forex rates anytime, anywhere. 🌍💳

🌍 World Wide Markets Ep. 648 – Cash-Rich Companies, Fed Cuts & China’s Housing Woes

Host: Simon Brown
Date: 17 September 2025

📉 China’s Housing Market

• New house prices fell 2.5% YoY – still negative since May 2022.
• Bottomed in October 2023 (-5.9%) and now trending upward.
• Reflects weak Chinese consumer confidence, similar to South Africa 🇨🇳🇿🇦.
• Evergrande’s collapse still casts a shadow.

Chinese New Home index YonY

🏦 Central Banks in Focus

FOMC (US): Decision due Wednesday evening.

• Market expects 25bps cut, with more cuts likely in Oct & Dec.
• US unemployment says “cut”, inflation says “don’t cut” – a real policy squeeze.
• Trump pushing for FOMC shake-up & questioning quarterly reporting 📊.

MPC (SA): Decision Thursday.

• Inflation at 3.5%, close to target.
• Mixed economist views: some say no cuts until 2027, others see cuts sooner.
• Fed cuts could influence SARB moves via rand 💵➡️🇿🇦.

📊 Trump vs. Quarterly Results

• Trump suggests companies report every six months instead of quarterly.
• Argument: reduces costs and red tape.
• Counterpoint: US market’s strength lies in transparency & discipline from frequent reporting.
• Unlikely to change, but sparks debate on market “exceptionalism” 🇺🇸.

🏢 Three Stocks With More Cash & Investments Than Market Cap

1. 📰 Caxton (JSE:CAT)

• 💰 Cash: R3bn + R1.3bn stake in Mpact.
• Market cap: R4.4bn → stock “almost free” if stripped for parts.
• Dividend payer, PE \~7, yield \~5%.
• Not flashy, but offers Buffett-style margin of safety.

2. 🚚 Supergroup (JSE:SPG)

• 💰 Cash: R5.2bn, but liabilities of R9.5bn linked to assets held for sale.
• Supply chain, dealerships, fleet solutions.
• Debt-heavy, UK exposure risky 🇬🇧.
• Verdict: less attractive vs. Caxton.

3. 🛒 Pick n Pay (JSE:PIK)

• Owns 65.6% of Boxer → worth \~R20bn.
• Plus R5bn cash, R1bn debt, R2.8bn deferred tax asset.
• Market cap \~R20bn → potential undervaluation.
• PE ugly now, but 2027/28 earnings growth could re-rate it.
• Selling down Boxer stake could unlock value.

⚒️ Mining & M&A

Anglo American buying Teck Resources (Canada, copper focus).

• * Increases copper weighting to \~⅔ of revenue.
• Head office shifting to Toronto 🇨🇦.
• Deal raises takeover questions – could BHP* come back for Anglo?

🇨🇳 Nvidia vs. China

• China says Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws (linked to 2020 acquisition).
• Also probing Texas Instruments for “dumping”.
• Comes as US-China trade talks continue, TikTok deadline looms ⏳.
• Possible bargaining chip in ongoing negotiations.
• Simon still holds Nvidia.

🧠 Next Week: Second Brain Special

Simon explains how to build & use a “second brain” for decision-making & information management. Because our brains are great at decisions 🧠✔️ … but terrible at remembering ❌.

👉 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & SHYFT – The global money app for forex, travel, shopping, payments & investments.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 647 (9 Sept 2024)

This week on *Worldwide Markets*, Simon Brown dives into global markets, tech giants, crypto shifts, commodities, and currencies. Recorded a day early before heading to Leaderex, here’s what’s moving markets right now. Powered by Standard Bank and Shyft. 💳🌐

📊 US Jobs & Rate Cuts

• US jobs report was a mixed bag → +22k jobs, but mostly in healthcare.
• June revised downward to negative, July slightly up.
• Unemployment steady at 4.3%.
• Market expectation: Fed to cut rates next week after Jackson Hole signals.
• SA MPC unlikely to cut as inflation edges higher at 3.5%.

🔍 Alphabet (Google) Court Cases

Alphabet gets a gentle slap on the wrist in antitrust cases.
Remedies minimal → no spin-offs of Chrome/Android, search payments (Apple $20bn/year, Firefox $750m) remain.
Stock ran to **all-time highs 🚀 (PE still below historical mean).
Another case pending on ad dominance – possible spinoffs (YouTube, DoubleClick?) could unlock hidden value.

₿ AltVest → African Bitcoin Corporation

• AltVest rebrands to African Bitcoin Corporation (ABC).
• Pivot: becoming a Bitcoin treasury company like MicroStrategy.
• Raising R11m at R11/share (vs. current ±R5). Proceeds to fund name change + Bitcoin buys.
• Ambition: raise R210m (maybe even $210m?) in tranches.
• Risky bet → doubling down on volatile BTC exposure. ⚡

🛢️ Oil & Sasol

• OPEC+ to increase output ~200k barrels/day.
• Saudi Arabia aims for market share → oil likely heading to $60.
• Sasol still strong 💪 → potential run to R135–R140 before Simon trims profits.

💡 ASML & Mistral (AI)

• Rumours: Dutch chip giant ASML investing \$1.5bn in French AI startup Mistral.
• ASML has cash $8.5bn, but risks blurring lines by funding customers’ ecosystem.
• Simon skeptical: “Picking AI winners this early is messy.”

📈 Bull Market Still Running

SA Top 40 at record highs (95k+).
Possible push to 100k points this month.
“This is still a bull market until it’s not.” 🐂🔥

🥇 Precious Metals

• Gold → holding gains, bullish above \$3,450.
• Platinum & Palladium → strong breakouts, holding support.
• Silver → resilient above \$40.
• Precious metals complex all looking firm. ✨

💵 Rand & Global Trade

• Rand currently at R17.55, with potential to test R17.00 if US cuts rates.
• Africa-China trade up 25% to $122bn → filling void left by US. 🇨🇳🤝🌍

🇺🇸 Trump’s Tariff Exemptions

Trump exempts; uranium, tungsten, graphite, gold, bullion from tariffs.
Good news for SA resources sector.

🎙️ Final Thoughts

• Markets remain bullish, metals are shining, oil likely weaker, and crypto experiments continue.
• If you’re at Leaderex, come say hi 👋.
• Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for payments, travel, and investing.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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🌠Worldwide Markets Ep. 646 – 3 September 2025

ðŸŽ™ï¸ Hosted by Simon Brown

Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft, the global money app 💳ðŸŒ

📈 Key Topics This Week

🌠Emerging Markets: 20 Years of Poor Returns

EM ETFs have underperformed vs. the US and gold

20-year CAGR:

📊 NASDAQ: +1,400% (14.5% CAGR)

🟡 Gold: +700% (10.9% CAGR)

🇺🇸 S&P 500: +440% (8.7% CAGR)

🌠Emerging Markets: +193% (5.5% CAGR)

BRIC dream (Brazil, Russia, India, China) never delivered 💭

Headwinds: financial crises, currency depreciation 💸, weaker governance 📉

🟡 Gold & ⚪ Silver Running

Gold futures hit $3,560/oz 🚀

Central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries

Silver back above $40, near 2011 highs

Stagflation worries (low growth, high inflation, debt) → gold demand surges

Gold weekly chart | 02 September 2025

🛒 Shoprite* Results & 60/60 Growth

Checkers 60/60 delivered R18.9bn revenue ðŸŽðŸ“¦

That’s nearly 20% of Checkers’ sales & close to Pick n Pay’s market cap

Strong results, inflation at just 2.3% ✅

Stock price up ~5%

🚗 Record August Vehicle Sales

51,880 units sold, highest since Oct 2019

Brands leading:

🚙 Toyota (13k+)

🚗 Suzuki (~6.5k)

🇨🇳 Rising share from Chinese brands (GWM, Chery, JAC)

Trend: consumers keeping cars longer, turning to cheaper imports ðŸ·ï¸

🧪 ASP Isotopes JSE Listing

Listed ahead of Renergen* takeover

Local pricing looks wildly inflated at R1,100 vs. realistic ~R165 📉

Very thin volumes; caution urged âš ï¸

🌠Geopolitics: New World Order

India 🤠Russia 🤠China meeting – cooperation on energy, fertilizers, space & security

Growing shift away from USD towards RMB in oil settlement

US power not gone yet, but cracks in global dominance showing ðŸ›ï¸

🔑 Takeaways

EM equities have disappointed; US tech dominance continues 💻

Gold remains a hedge in uncertain times 🟡

Shoprite Sixty60 is now a R20bn business 🚚

Car sales at record highs, boosted by affordable Chinese brands 🚘

Watch out for weird valuations in new listings 👀

Geopolitics shifting – 2025 could be a turning point ðŸŒ

📌 Next week’s episode will be late – Simon’s at LeaderX on Tuesday. Come say hi if you’re there! 🙌

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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📌 Key Themes This Week

• 📊 Naspers share split – AGM approves a 5-for-1 split to make shares more affordable for smaller investors.

• 💬 Jackson Hole update – Jerome Powell’s last appearance as Fed Chair, shifting focus from inflation to jobs. Markets pricing in September & December rate cuts with high certainty.

• 💸 Trump & the Fed – Trump fires Fed Governor Lisa Cook ❌ and pushes to pack the Fed with rate-cut friendly members.

• 🇺🇸 Intel stake – Trump administration takes a 10% stake in Intel via the Chips Act, raising questions about “state capitalism.”

• 📉 Dollar weakness – Dollar index slides, Rand strengthens to R17.44, risk-on sentiment in global markets.

• 💷 UK debt crisis – 30-year gilt yields at levels last seen in 1998 (5.6%). Mounting debt costs threaten stability.

📈 Company Results & Market Moves

• 🏫 ADvTech*

  • Strong results: 5-year CAGR → Dividends +24%, Revenue +13%, EPS doubled.

  • Enrolments still growing vs. competitor Curro shrinking.

  • Expanding into tertiary education in Ghana 🇬🇭.

  • Solid valuation: PE ~15, dividend yield ~3%.

• 🚢 Grindrod

  • Decent numbers, disposing businesses to strengthen balance sheet.

  • Awarded 3rd-party rail access via Transnet 🚂.

  • Cheap valuation: PE ~8, Price/Book ~1.

• 🛢️ Sasol

  • Results stronger than expected: Free cash flow R12bn (up from R7bn).

  • Stock rallied past R120, eyeing R140.

  • Needs stronger chemical markets, higher oil & weaker Rand for tailwinds.

• ⚙️ Nvidia (results pending)

  • Market eagerly awaiting numbers. Results due Wednesday aftermarket.

• 🪖 Rheinmetall

  • German defence stock up +160% YTD on European defence demand.

  • Valuations stretched (PE 89 vs. mean 23). Possible overheated trade.

🌐 Macro Watch

• 📉 US inflation & rate cuts – Markets expect two cuts in 2024, possibly November too. Powell less worried about inflation at 2.5–3%.

• 🏦 Tariffs & inflation – Spread over time, reducing immediate shock but sustaining price pressure.

• 💵 Debt & inflation – Inflation helps deflate $30T US debt mountain faster.

• 💷 UK bonds – Debt costs rising sharply, pushing the UK into deeper fiscal stress.

📌 Quick Hits

• 📉 S&P 500 at 23x earnings – Historically, this leads to flat 10-year returns (±2%).

• 💱 Dollar trend – Weakening outlook continues, aligning with Trump’s economic policy.

• 🇩🇪 Rheinmetall boom – Defence spending pushes stock sky-high, but risks of overheating.

• 📚 ETF database update – Now includes active ETFs 👉 justonelap.com/ETFdatabase.

• 🎥 Power Hour – Live session Tuesday 17:30 SA time, replay available later.

🎙️ Host: Simon Brown
📅 Recorded: Tuesday 27 August 2024
💡 Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft app

👉 Markets are on a risk-on rally 🚀, but with high valuations, debt risks, and political interference at central banks, caution remains the watchword.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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🌍 Worldwide Markets Ep. 644 – 20 August 2024

🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown

This week’s episode dives into Buffett’s latest moves, Google’s iconic IPO, and big results from Standard Bank, MTN, and Sasol. Here’s what you need to know:

📈 Buffett Buys UnitedHealth – Should You Follow?

• Berkshire Hathaway picked up UnitedHealth (UNH).
• Stock has fallen from $600 → $308 due to federal investigations ⚖️.
• On paper, valuation looks attractive:
  • Forward PE ~19 (below long-term average).
  • Price-to-book ~2.9 vs decade average of 4.9.
• Analysts split: 2 sells, 5 holds, 12 buys, 6 strong buys.
• ⚠️ Simon’s take: “Don’t blindly follow Buffett. Healthcare is a regulatory minefield. Use it as a starting point, not a buy signal.”

🩺 Healthcare Investing Alternatives

• Johnson & Johnson* (JNJ) – more stable exposure.
• Healthcare services & REITs (e.g. hospitals, medical equipment).
• ETFs on JSE:
  • Satrix Healthcare Innovation ETF (STXHLT).
  • Signia’s healthcare exposure sits in their active funds.
• Note: Active ETFs will soon be added to local databases ✅.

🏦 Standard Bank Results

• ROE: 19.1% – huge number.
• Forward PE: 8 (cheap vs historical 10.1).
• Dividend yield: 6.6% 💰.
• Price-to-book: 1.4 (in line with decade average).
• Expanding strongly across Africa 🌍.
• Simon: “Boring, quality portfolio stock. I like it, but waiting for cheaper entry near 240.”

Standard Bank | Weekly

📱 MTN Results

• Headline numbers looked great due to base effects from currency collapses in Ghana 🇬🇭 & Nigeria 🇳🇬.
• Market unimpressed: stock fell 8% 📉.
• Still strong 1-year return: +77% (incl. dividends +83%).
• Forward PE ~13.5 vs long-term 25 → appears undervalued.
• Risks: exec churn, CAPEX-heavy, regulatory hurdles.
• Simon: “Not a fan of telcos – data is just a utility.”

🛢️ Sasol Update

• Stock bounced from R50 → R100.
• Weak oil price outlook could hurt 📉.
• Operations improving, second-half expected stronger.
• Simon’s take: “Not a long-term hold. More of a trade: buy around R100, maybe ride it to R140, then get out.”

🔎 Google’s IPO Turns 21 🎂

• IPO’d in 2004 via Dutch Auction – gave retail investors equal footing vs institutions.
• Raised $1.66bn at $85/share.
• Today’s market cap ~ $2.5 trillion 🤯.
• Return: ~8,000% since IPO 🚀.
• Fun fact: for years, Domino’s Pizza IPO (same week) had similar returns 🍕 vs 🔍, but Google pulled ahead.
• Regulatory cloud: pending US judgment in August could hit stock short term ⚖️ → Simon says: “If it falls, I’ll be buying.”

💡 Key Takeaways

• Don’t just copy Buffett – do your homework 📝.
• Healthcare remains risky but ETFs & REITs offer cleaner exposure.
• Standard Bank looks solid, MTN looks risky, Sasol looks tradable.
• Google’s IPO remains one of the best investments of all time – and could still offer value despite regulation headwinds.

👉 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the app that gives you the cheapest forex rates anytime, anywhere 🌍📱.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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🇺🇸 US Inflation – Numbers come in softer than expected 📊, fuelling hopes for a **September rate cut** from the Fed 🏦.

⛽ Sasol trading update – PE under 3 😮, H2 profits looking stronger, and the market loving it (+9.7% 🚀).

💰 Share buybacks – Why US companies love them, the tax angle, and Apple’s massive \$100bn spree 🍏.

Apple out standing shares

🪙 Gold & the Resi10 index – Resource stocks roaring in 2024, +72.5% YTD 🤯, but will gold break out of its range? 

Gold Weekly | 12 August 2025

🇨🇳 China trade surplus – Despite tariffs & tensions, it hits a record \$1.2 trillion 📦.

🖥️ Trump vs. Nvidia & AMD – AI chip sales to China now taxed at 15%, and Beijing warns against buying certain models 🤖.

📊 Tool – Just One Lap’s ETF Database is live! Filter by issuer, classification, tax-free status, and even search top holdings 🔍.

Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investments 🌍.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 642
📅 Recorded: Tuesday, 5 August
💼 Host: Simon Brown
🌍 Powered by Standard Bank Shyft – The global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investing.

🔮 Market Highlights

• 📈 Purple Group* rocks
  🚀 Share price has more than doubled since April lows.
  🧾 PE at 56, but strong growth potential and product expansion.
  💼 Simon holds the stock — bought low, holding for the long term.

• 🏦 MPC shifts inflation target 🎯
  🔽 New anchor at 3%, down from 4.5%.
  ⚠️ Finance Minister pushes back — governance concerns.
  💸 Lower inflation = lower raises = better expectations management.
  🧨 Flip side: high real interest rates hurt growth & jobs.

• 🚗 Vehicle sales boom
  📊 July sales >51,000 units — highest since 2019!
  🛻 Light commercial vehicles dominate, Mahindra sneaks into Top 10.
  💰 CMH* shines with low PE and high dividend — Simon holds.
  📉 Motus also cheap, but Simon prefers CMH.

• 🪙 Gold miners printing money
  ✨ AngloGold Ashanti*:
  • 🚜 Production +21%
  • 💰 Free cash flow +149%
  • 📉 Net debt down 92%
  • 💵 80c dividend
  • 💹 Targeting R1,000/share — already at R972!
    ✨ Gold Fields also up ~150% YoY on earnings.

• 🧾 US Bureau of Labor Statistics drama 🇺🇸
  🔥 Trump fires BLS head after unfavourable jobs data.
  ❗ Undermines trust in data — risks U.S. credibility.
  🌎 Bad precedent: Greece, Argentina, China have all suffered from politicised stats.
• 🍊 Tariffs impact SA agriculture
  🇺🇸 U.S. tariffs on citrus & grapes kick in Thursday.
  📉 Sector exposure: ~10% — not massive but not zero.
  👨‍🌾 Some farmers and related stocks (e.g. Mpact) will take a hit.

🧠 Random Insights

• 🪙 Crypto in Parliament?
  🇿🇦 Of 490 South African parliamentarians… only 2 declared owning crypto.
  🤷‍♂️ No surprise crypto isn’t getting policy attention.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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🔺 Tariffs Incoming
🇿🇦 SA faces 30% US tariffs starting Friday.
🚗 Auto industry, 🍊 citrus, 🚚 logistics & 🧪 fertilizer sectors (like Omnia, Kaap Agri, Impact) to feel the heat — but no fatal blows expected.

📉 MPC Policy Misfire?
💰 SA inflation at 3%, but rates still stuck at 10.75%.
📉 Is the MPC behind the curve? Simon says: Yes.
📉 Calls for a rate cut of at least 0.5% to 1%.

SA CPI and Prime | 29 July 2025

🥇 Why Hasn’t the SARB Bought Gold in 20 Years?
📊 From 2005 to 2025: only ±48,000 ounces added.
📉 Gold outperformed the USD by a wide margin (680% vs 171%) over 20 years.
🤔 Why the gold aversion? Simon wants answers.

📈 Structured Product Spotlight
💼 New Standard Bank product:
✔️ 100% capital guarantee
✔️ 1.8x upside gearing
✔️ MSCI World Index exposure
📆 3.5 year duration, paid out in ETFs
💸 Min R25k. Closes in Sept.

🚘 Chinese Cars Disrupting the Market
🇨🇳 Omoda CX5 & CS9 – slick, affordable, feature-packed
💡 Screens bigger than laptops, prices lower than rivals
⚠️ Toyota, Ford, VW: Time to worry?

💊 Big Pharma Blunder
🤦‍♂️ Novo Nordisk loses Canadian patent by forgetting to pay a $250 fee
📉 Generics incoming. Massive oops.

🔍 Alphabet Results
💹 Stock up 15% since Simon’s last mention
💰 $95bn cash, low debt
⚖️ Facing antitrust heat – rulings incoming
📉 Possible price dip = buying opportunity?

📢 Next week: Who owns what in Parliament? Crypto, shares, surprises await…

🧠 Hosted by Simon Brown
💳 Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for smart travellers & investors

🌍 This week on Worldwide Markets, Simon dives into a packed show covering inflation, earnings, property deals, and opportunities in local stocks. Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft — your gateway to global investing. 🌐💸

📉 Inflation Target Cut – A Bad Idea?
• SA may shift to a 3% inflation target 📊
• Risks of higher interest rates 😬
• Real rates already sky-high 🚀

💵 Weaker US Dollar & Tech Gains
• Trump’s weaker dollar policy in motion 🇺🇸📉
• MAG7 & Nasdaq benefit: 49%+ offshore revenue 🖥️🌐
• S&P 500 and Russell 2000 lag

🏢 Sibanye-Stillwater* Diversifies
• Buys US recycling business ♻️
• Adds silver, copper, and skills 🪙🔧
• Expands beyond PGMs and gold

🪙 Voltara & PGMs Running Hot
• Valterra Platinum update reflects flood damage & weak past PGM prices 🌊
• But platinum & palladium now breaking resistance levels 📈🔥

🏬 Hyprop’s Bid for MAS PLC
• Cash or shares deal (R24 or Hyprop stock) 💰
• Hyprop focuses on Western Cape & Eastern Europe 🏖️🌍
• Deal may not be in MAS shareholders’ best interest ❓

🪨 Afrimat: Value at R45?
• Price on long-term support line 📉🧱
• Concerns: iron ore, Lafarge deal, site near Mozambique 🇲🇿
• Van Heerden’s track record solid 💼💪
• Forward PE ~11, below decade mean 🔍

🧪 New ETF Database (Beta)
• Search by issuer, classification, TER & more 🔍📊
• Explore at justonelap.com/etfdatabase 🧱📂
• Feedback welcome!

📜 SA Budget Drama
• Multi-party politics = budget complexity 🧠
• Education budget almost derailed ❗

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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🎙 This Week in Markets:
US inflation ticks higher 📈, putting pressure on rate cuts. Powell's in no rush. Local rates also due end-July.

🏘 China Housing Trouble:
3 years of negative home price growth in China 🇨🇳. Citizens frustrated as property values slide. Evergrande and other ghosts still haunt.

Chinese Home prices Year-on-Year | June 2025

🚀 Elon Watch:
Musk injects $2B into XAI 🤖. Deck chairs shuffled? Investors seem to approve.

🔩 PGMs Shine:
Platinum and palladium break higher ⚪, supported by tightening supply. Miners like Sibanye*, Implats, and Northam bask in the glow.

💻 Nvidia Milestone:
First $4 trillion company 🤯. AI + autonomous driving = future. Trump eases chip restrictions.

📦 Copper Tariffs:
Trump proposes 50% import tariffs on copper 🔧. Could spark domestic production—or not.

📉 Gold & Oil:
Gold drifts within range 🪙. Oil facing resistance again 🛢, needs a breakout above $77 to excite bulls.

₿ Bitcoin Treasury Companies:
Why buy MicroStrategy at a premium when you can just buy Bitcoin? 🤷‍♂️ Financial engineering vs. logic.
📊 Strategy (ex-MicroStrategy) holds 600,000+ BTC.
🇿🇦 Altvest has one BTC—also in the mix.

🏛 Crypto Legislation:
US considers classifying crypto as a commodity 🪙, stablecoins gaining traction. It’s Bitcoin Week at the White House. 🇺🇸

💸 ZAR & Tariffs:
Rand weakened after US slaps 30% tariffs on SA imports ⚠️. Trump’s unpredictability rattles markets.

🧠 Coming Soon on Power Hour:
📅 August: Moxima Gama on advanced charting
📅 November: Keillen Ndlovu on REITs (local & offshore)

🧭 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shift, the global money app 💳
🌍 Travel | 💱 Forex | 🛒 Spend | 📈 Invest — All in your hand.

🎧 Leave a rating and review — every bit helps!
📢 Back next week with more market insights.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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Simon’s on holiday in sunny Durban 🌞 but couldn’t resist diving into what might be Trump’s grand economic plan. On the surface, it’s tariffs, spending cuts and tax breaks—but is there real strategy underneath the chaos?

🔹 Trump’s Big Idea: Use tariffs to raise revenue and onshore manufacturing 🏭
🔹 Debt Drama: US debt now > $30 trillion 😬
🔹 Tariffs Everywhere: South Africa slapped with 30%—and so is everyone else 🌍
🔹 Reshoring & Inflation: Could higher costs push inflation up again? 💸🔥
🔹 No Deals Signed: 90 deals in 90 days? 0 delivered 🤷‍♂️
🔹 Foreign Policy Fallout: NATO, Mexico, Canada—strained relationships 🌐💥
🔹 Cut Spending: USAID, EV subsidies, and soft power eroded 🚫🌱
🔹 Regulation Rollback: Less red tape, but also less consumer/environmental protection 🧾♻️
🔹 Crypto & Energy: Deregulate crypto, cozy up to OPEC for cheap oil ⛽🪙
🔹 Mar-a-Lago Accord?: A currency + Treasury buying pact that needs allies—who aren't coming 🤝❌
🔹 Immigration & Performance Politics: Headlines vs. actual impact 🛂📺

💬 There’s a thread of logic, but execution has been clumsy at best. Allies alienated, deals undelivered. The endgame? Likely messy and inflationary.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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The Year So Far 📈

• Market returns in 2025 tell a story of extreme volatility rather than predictable trends.

• The US 10-year yield spiked above 4.5%, shaking confidence before Trump walked back tariffs.

Trump’s Second Term 🏛️

• Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China, and NATO tensions triggered waves of uncertainty.

• A 90-day tariff pause ends soon—more volatility ahead.

Currency Moves 💱

• The rand hit R19.90/$ in April but has strengthened nearly 7% year to date.

• Dollar weakness is driving big shifts—its worst start to a year in 50 years!

Commodities on Fire 🔥

• Platinum: +52%, hitting 10-year highs

• Gold: +27%, buoyed by central banks diversifying away from dollars

• Copper, rhodium, uranium also strong, while coal and Brent oil are lagging

Equities: Winners & Losers 📊
Top Performers:

• Sibanye Stillwater* +115% 🚀

• Northam, Impala, Harmony riding the PGM boom

• Surprise: MTN +58%, defying telco sceptics

• British American Tobacco at record rand highs

Strugglers:

• Aspen -27% 🩺

• Spar, Mr Price* correcting after big runs

• Sasol, despite the headlines, down just 5%

Global Markets Snapshot 🌐

• European indices are up double digits (Germany +20%, Spain +21%)

• Canada bounced +8.5% from April lows

• Hong Kong +20% as Asia joins the rally

• SA market in ZAR: +30% YTD, outpacing gold and the Nasdaq

Key Lessons 🎓

• Volatility is a feature, not a bug.

• When markets “go on sale,” don’t panic—buy like you would discounted chuckles.

• Politicians worldwide are unpredictable—stay focused on your long-term plan.

The Dollar Story 💵

• Dollar Index fell from 110 to 96 in six months.

• Capital is rotating to Europe and emerging markets.

• The tariff-driven isolationism in the US is reshaping global flows.

🗓️ Upcoming Event

Power Hour – 21 July (Monday)
Topic: Three Decades of Investment & Trading Lessons with Simon Brown
🔗 Register at JustOneLap.com/events

📈 More Resources

• Full ETF performance update dropping Thursday:
  justonelap.com/ETFs

• Read Simon’s market insights anytime on JustOneLap

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

💸 Know Your Fees: Effective Annual Cost (EAC)

• Not all fees are created equal — EAC is the real number to watch.

• Applies to retirement products, LISPs, and unit trusts — not to stockbrokers.

• 📊 Understand the difference:

  • TER (Total Expense Ratio)

  • TIC (Total Investment Cost)

  • EAC (includes platform + advisor + product fees)

• 🍏🍏 Apples-to-apples: Compare funds using EAC.

• 🎯 Target an EAC between 1.1%–1.5%.

• 💬 Negotiate! Advisor and platform fees are often flexible.

• 🔍 Beware: Some brokers refuse to give the number — that’s a red flag.

• ❗ Platform fees: Flat > Percentage. Otherwise, your 1% could become R100,000 in fees!

🛢️ Oil Wipeout & Geopolitics

• Weekend U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites 🔥 led to… a shrug from the oil market.

• 📈 Oil hit $81.40 early Monday, then crashed to $67.70 by Wednesday.

• That’s a $14 drop, nearly 20% down — massive.

• 🌍 Global market awash with oil:

  • 🇻🇪 Venezuela, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇷🇺 Russia all pumping through sanctions

  • ⛽ OPEC+ supply increases kicking in soon

• ⛴️ Straits of Hormuz risk overstated — markets unconvinced

• 📉 Oil heading to $60? Possibly.

⚙️ Sasol: Much Ouch

• ❌ Not a fan of Sasol — never been on that bus

• 📉 Sasol collapsed this week: down 14–15% Tuesday

• Currently hovering at R96, with support around R77

• 🧪 Chemicals weak, oil down, Rand strong = triple whammy

• ⚠️ Not going bust, but it’s in real pain

💱 Rand Rollercoaster

• 💵 USD/ZAR down from 18.15 to 17.76

• 🔻 Dollar weakness a key driver

• 🎯 R17 still very much in play

• 😬 Strong Rand not helping exporters like Sassol

🏦 Fed Watch: FOMC & Powell

• 🕊️ No rate change last week, as expected

• 📣 Powell grilled by Congress — MAGA heat incoming

• 📉 Fed still guiding for two cuts in 2025

• Data outlook softening:

  • 🏭 GDP ↓

  • 📈 Inflation ↑

  • 👷 Unemployment ↑

• 🧠 Powell's just doing his job — not playing politics

• SA’s MPC, on the other hand… maybe a bit behind the curve

⚗️ PGMs: Shiny Again?

• 💬 Chat with Old Mutual: rotating out of gold, into PGMs

• 🔼 Platinum at 10-year highs, last seen in Oct 2014

• 🇿🇼 🇿🇦 Platinum from Southern Africa; 🇨🇦 🇷🇺 Palladium elsewhere

• 📦 Stockpiles, especially palladium, still working through

• 🚗 EVs: Now only expected to be 40% of sales by 2035

  • Existential crisis for PGMs? Delayed… for now

• 🧊 Recycling paused — not worth it at these prices

• 🥇 Pick your poison: Impala, Northam, Sibanye Stillwater*…

  • 📦 Sibanye with PGMs, palladium & gold exposure

🪙 Gold: Still Glowing

• 🧲 Pullback to support around R3,330/g

• Could go as low as R3,200 — but not rolling over

• 💡 Structural shift in how investors (especially in developed markets) view gold

• 🛡️ Post-2022 shift: Central banks hedging against future sanctions with more gold

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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