Simon Shares

• Moody's did not downgrade us, but they did put us on review for a downgrade that will put us one notch above junk status. Then we'll have all three rating agencies on the same level with Standard & Poor heading the pack as we're on a negative outlook with them.
• Local bank results looking good with impairments improving (expect for Barclays Africa). On the surface they look cheap, but not if earnings weaken going forward, and earnings will weaken.
• Now Old Mutual (JSE code: OML) may split itself up and return back to South Africa. But will (can) it sell Nedbank (JSE code: NED)?

We Get Mail

• AntonK (via Twitter)
  • Simon, why would you call it (AB Inbev, JSE code ANB) ex growth as the two brewers together have roughly 30% global market share?.
• CraigNotAlan (via Twitter)
  • Investing lump sum in ETFs in these markets, local & int - immediate or phased over time (& period)?
• Arin
  • The issue I have is that I don't have any pure property ETFs or unit trusts (except for the odd property companies within my ETFs/unit trusts). I am aware that the ProptraxTen is more of a income yielding portfolio which may be good for the TFSA, where as BBET40 may be more of a growth portfolio if I'm not mistaken.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares

• Clover (JSE code: CLR) has "decided to withdraw from future investments in Nigeria", seems hasty?
• Barclays exiting Africa selling off their ABSA (JSE code: BGA) stake, more hasty decisions?
• Nice boring results from Metrofile (JSE code: MFL), exactly as wanted. Big seller seems to now be gone after large transactions on Monday and stock has run hard since.
• New tax year, you can add another R30k into your TFSA.
• The Momentum portfolio update, new stocks and methodology is online here.

Janine Weilbach Senior Research Analyst Thebe Stock Broking

Construction stocks have had a very hard time since the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. With this in mind, how does one look at a construction company in order to make investment decisions? order books seem to be popular but often misleading, large piles of cash seem great but suddenly disappear. We speak to an expert to better understand investing in local construction.

We Get Mail

• Matt C (via twitter)
  • Can you, or someone in the know, please explain Dow Theory to us?
• Cardiprox (via Twitter)
  • How about the opposite momentum. Taking the bottom 15 top 100 shares and shorting them for the same period?
• Johan
  • I've started looking at the costs involved in opening an US trading account through my broker, and to a relatively new investor like me, all the costs involved in opening an account is quite difficult to understand. Would you mind maybe giving an overview of the costs involved please?

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares

• Woolies (JSE code: WHL) offering script of cash for dividend. Default is cash, I'm taking new shares.
• Standard Bank (JSE code: SBK) trading update looks great, HEPS some 30% higher. But what of the R1,6bn write down for lost aluminium in China the previous year? The stock initially popped 8% higher but traded red by late morning.

Budget 2016, Simon's thoughts

• Budget is R1.46tn vs R1.45tn in the October MTBPS.
• Deficit R139bn, which we have to borrow and that cost is increasing as R186 government bond is 9.8% from 9.3%.
• Budget deficit will fall from 3.2% in the 2016/2017 year to 2.4% in 2018/2019
• Capital Gains Tax (CGT) gets increased from 33.3% or marginal rate to 40% while the amount of tax free CGT every year goes from R30k to R40k.
  • No change to Dividend Withholding Tax (DWT) or Securities Transfer Tax (STT).
• Lots of small tax increases and some new ones;
  • Increased; fuel levy, bag levy, sin taxes, transfer duty on +R10m properties, etc.
  • New; sugar tax, globe tax and tyre tax.
• Social grants on the up, R11.5bn over next three years.
• Fiscal drag coupled with increased inflation and interest rates going to hurt consumers.
• 150,000 TFSA accounts opened and R1bn deposited. But no changes to the limits.
• Was it enough taxing and enough slashing to avoid a downgrade later this year?
• Bottom line, can he stop the junk status looming over SA?

We Get Mail

• Marcia
  • Are you selling your Woolies after the results?
• Stef
  • I see the PLD and PLT ETFs have 'partial delisting'. What's this about? Should I worry if I hold them?

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares

• Minister Gordhan delivers his budget speech next Wednesday, what can we expect in terms of new or higher taxes? STT, DWT and CGT?
• Remember, remember. The end of February is end of the tax year and you have until then to fill in your R30k limit for TFSA. If you already have hit your limit new year starts on 1 March 2016. We have recommended portfolio and my picks here.
• Anglo America (JSE code: AGL) announced their restructuring. The big, but not unsurprising was the exiting of Kumba Iron Ore (JSE code: KIO). But how? They could just unbundle to shareholders, or try sell it. Latter will not be easy and former would put serious pressure on the KIO share price if the almost 70% AGL holds hit the market.
• ARB Holdings (JSE code: ARB) remains ungeared with R190,9m net cash on hand. I first discovered this company in about 2008 when they had some R300m. They've been spending it very very cautiously, too cautiously?
• Discovery (JSE code: DSY) update has spooked the market. We've seen this before.
• Latest Boot Camp Video, trading the news flow is online and next month we're looking at FX and index trading and again we'll include some trading systems. You can book here.

Garth McKenzie TradersCorner.co.za

Ketef (via Twitter) asks "Simon from experience-have you made more money trading short term compared to longer term? Any correlation btn timeframe & profits?"

The answer is more than just about returns. It is about sleeping well at night, time required to manage the trades and experience in the market. There is no get rich quick here, but a well balanced portfolio of money split between trading and investing can boost returns while we learn and sleep well.

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares

• Grindrod (JSE code: GND) just hit multi-year lows trading just above 900c with a net asset value (NAV) of over 2200c. Don't fight the trend, especially on cyclical stocks.
• RBA (JSE code: RBA) went bust on Tuesday. Of the three; RBA, Seakay and Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) only Calgro M3 remains. Lesson is simple. Go back five years, Calgro M3 was by far the best of the three, always buy the winners.
• Volatility, lots of it. Welcome to bear markets, they move fast and trading them is tough, very tough.

Eugene Chemaly - Afrifocus Securities

• Chris asks "how does one protect cash?".
  • Preference shares are debt instruments issued by banks and others that pay set dividends linked to the prime rate.
  • Typically trade at discount to their cash levels and have no market makers meaning capital loss is possible. In an ideal world they would offer no gain or loss, but reality is different.
  • New Basel 3 rules may see preference shares phased out by the issuers (via repurchase) and there is a risk that the budget speech will see an increase in the dividend withholding tax rate (currently 15%).
  • PREFTX is the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) or individual ones liked by Afrifocus are; Discovery and the three form Investec.

We Get Mail

• Thando
  • Jean Pierre Verster mentions that hedge funds will be available to us mini-me retail investors this year. What was that about?
• Sandra
  • What will the TFSA be increased for next year?
• Chris
  • How does one protect cash? 

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares

• Where's the party?
• Review: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner
• Great Davos 2016 report back presentation with Nicky Newton-King (JSE CEO) and Bronwyn Nielsen (CNBC Africa). Next week Thursday we have another JSE Power Hour on Tax Free Savings Accounts (TFSA).

Clive Butkow GroTech

A Venture Capital company one can invest into and receive a tax break thanks to the SARS section 12J clause. They then invest into disruptive internet based companies with the strategy buy, build, flip.

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares

• Markets are volatile, but is the bear dead?
• I am buying Metrofile (JSE code: MFL). Good solid business that has solid earnings and currently on a dividend yield of just over 4%.
• Why is low oil causing such concerns on global markets? One would think it is good for consumers and hence good for economies?
• Davos 2016 report back presentation with Nicky Newton-King (JSE CEO) and Bronwyn Nielsen (CNBC Africa).
• MPC coming to an interest rate increase ear you. Today is likely to be the first of many, reduce debt.

Jean Pierre Verster 36One Asset Management
What's the big picture, world economy soft or markets just jittery? What about China and oil and how is the US and EU economies doing?

We Get Mail

• Casey
• With the end of the tax year looming I want to make sure my TFSA is in good standing. Can you tell me; Is my 30k limit based on cost (the amount of money I spent buying shares throughout the year) or current share value? If I go over my annual threshold can I simply sell some shares so my balance bought minus sold is worth R30k?
• Mary-Anne
• Looking at ETNs I compared the performance of BNPEUR at 47.47 to DBXEU 26.58 in past year, and BNPUSA at 45.61 to DBXUS at 37.46 in past year. What is the downside to these investment? They are not mentioned or recommended. DBXJapan also at 45.59 over the past twelve months, is this likely to perform well in future?

Simon Shares

• AB Inbev (JSE code: ANB) has arrived on the JSE as the largest stock by a mile. But I am not excited nor am I buying.
• The market is looking just weak, but this does not smell like 2008. How many people saying that actually were in the markets in 2008? That said more downside likely, under 40,000 on the Top40 seems certain. 35,000 anybody?

Drikus Combrinck Capicraft
How much money should we have in an off-shore account? This question was posed on Twitter and we get an expert view as well as other sage advice about investing off-shore (like maybe even bring some money back into Rands?).

We Get Mail

• Sipho
  • The TFSA is R30k a year. Is this calendar year so I can add another R30k now in
    January?
• Clayton
  • Is DBX World (JSE code: DBXWD) and Astoria (JSE code: ARA) about as good as having money offshore? Should one monthly add more to these in these circumstances instead of buying more BBET40 and other ETF's?
• Gerrit
  • Is it really necessary to have stop loss orders with regards to ETF's e.g. DBX-trackers, Satrix Indi etc.

Tweet or Facebook us your questions.

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

We’re back! It's 2016, wowzer.

This week’s show is our annual predictions show with Marc Ashton, GM at Moneyweb, Keith McLachlan, Small/Midcap fund manager at Alpha Wealth and Simon Brown from JustOneLap.

We did our first predictions show in January 2014 and and the second a year later and this is now our third show. Find 2014 here and 2015 here. We promised to revisit our predictions a year later and here we are marking our 2015 predictions and also making our 2016 predictions.

Tweet or Facebook us your predictions.

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Every year we end the JSE Power Hour series with a presentation from Simon Brown of Just One Lap in which he looks at his predictions for 2016 and how to position your portfolio accordingly. The video is below but we have included the audio only into this weeks JSEDirect.

Included in the presentation is;

Reviewing the 2015 predictions

• Top stock picks for 2016
• The South African economy (GDP growth, drought, recession?)
• State of commodities, mining and when to buy them
• Elections, unions and Eskom
• US, EU and China
• Bloodhound
• and more

The PDF of the presentation is here and if you'd rather watch the video is here.

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares

• Santova (JSE code: SNV) released results that had some dodge workings with the results. Last year they had some abnormal items in their HEPS that they were more than happy to accept. This year they're saying, no take those out to compare against this year as we didn't have the abnormal profits. Well hang on, you can't have it both ways. Either you include and compare or you don't. This is why I always only use diluted HEPS, none of this normalised HEPS nonsense. That all said I hold the stock and am happy.
• The indices will be adjusting on 21 December with AngloGold Ashanti (JSE code: ANG) exiting the Top40 and that means no gold stocks left in the index for the first time ever. The gold industry is dying locally and has been for a while and this really just confirms that slow death spiral.
• MTN (JSE code: MTN) has seen their fine reduced to USD3.2billion. A good reduction but still a massive number. The company also announced a series of "new operating structure and senior management changes" to prevent another fine happen. Frankly too late and also not as easy as just shifting some managers, this is about culture and that's deep rooted. I remain a happy non shareholder having sold when the news first broke.
• We updated the momentum portfolio ad are proposing some changes. Check the video out here and give us your feedback on the changes.
• Join us on 7 December for the last JSE Power Hour of the year at the JSE. Topic is 'positioning your portfolio for 2016' and being the last function of the year we'll have drinks afterward and we've invited all the speakers from the year so you can mingle and ask questions of them.

Year end portfolio review

• Do your trading systems need tweaking?
• What have your returns been?
• What stocks are you keeping or looking to add?
• Has your portfolio seen any style drift?

We Get Mail

• Derek
  • Please could you let me know which two ETFs you chose for your initial investment and also which online investment platform you used?
• Eben
  • Please explain how exchange rate fluctuations affect the DBX-Trackers ETFs that I buy/sell on the JSE.

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares

• Astoria (JSE code: ARA) listed yesterday and traded pretty much inline with net asset value (NAV) of USD1.00. I hold and like it very much. But it could be a tough year for the stock if Rand strengthens and US markets slow.
• Balwin (JSE code: BWN) published their first set of results as a listed company, for the six months ending August. Really strong numbers but one confusing comment from management was that the second half of the year is seasonally stronger than the first. yet this is over the Christmas holidays when builders shut down and surely people are not buying houses while also buying Christmas presents?
• Pioneer (JSE code: PFG) results were confusing with the company trumpeting adjusted HEPS growth of 23%. But adjusted for what? I always use the simple diluted HEPS which was up 12% and I know exactly what it means.
• Join us on 7 December for the last JSE Power Hour of the year at the JSE. Topic is 'positioning your portfolio for 2016' and being the last function of the year we'll have drinks afterward and we've invited all the speakers from the year so you can mingle and ask questions of them.

Keith Mclachlan fund manager at Alpha Wealth

How does one become a fund manager? What are the exams and where does one start? We also sneak in a question on the Balwin results.

We Get Mail

• Matt (via Twitter)
  • Can you please explain 'pre-market moves' and 'after hours trading' in US stock markets?
• Franz
  • I bought Steinhoff shares about a year ago and they have done really well. However, I am a bit confused now regarding the delisting from the JSE and the listing on the FSE. Does this mean I have to sell my shares? What happens if I don't sell them before they delist from the JSE? I see the deadline is 27 November.
• Stephan
  • I've had it twice now that I've been offered shares in lieu of a cash dividend (most recently on Steinhoff). Is this a case by case decision or is there a general rule of thumb to follow? If it is case by case, is there a simple analysis process to follow for a decision?

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares

• MTN (JSE code: MTN) continues to fall as the latest rumour says the fine will not be reduced but that it could be paid off in instalments. However MTN has as it there way not issued any SENS on this so the market remains blind with only rumours to speculate on. I consent to stay away and will continue to do so.
• Balwin, Stor-Age, Trellidor, M-FiTech (JSE codes: BWN, SSS, TRL & MFI). What's the common link? All recent listings currently trading below listing price. Not a good sign for a listing boom.
• Join us on 7 December for the last JSE Power Hour of the year at the JSE. Topic is 'positioning your portfolio for 2016' and being the last function of the year we'll have drinks afterward and we've invited all the speakers from the year so you can mingle and ask questions of them.

Books

• Trading
  • Trading in the Zone - Mark Douglas
  • Trend Following - Michael Covel
  • Reminiscences of a Stock Operator - Edwin Lefevre
• Investing
  • One up on Wall Street - Peter Lynch
  • Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits – Phil Fisher
  • Effective Investor - Franco Busetti
  • Intelligent Investor - Benjamin Graham

We Get Mail

• Vusi
  • What's the difference between issued and authorised shares? I see it all the time with JSE stocks.
• Heather
  • Can I invest in America with the JSE? I want to buy Apple shares.
• Via Twitter
  • I don't like MTN (moral thing) but I'd be fool to not buy it long-term Recovery insight?

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares

• Lonmin (JSE code: LON) a disaster of a storey. Back in July 2008 Xstrata offered GBP33 a share valuing he company at around R100billion at the time. It was rejected as under valuing the company. Stock has traded over R600 in 2007, now under 200c and a massive (seriously massive) rights issue at 21.4c.
• This national drought is getting very real with all sorts of implications for local companies, and none of them good.

Bryan Rudd CIO Anchor Capital Maurtrius
Astoria is being listed by Anchor Capital and will invest in a portfolio of global equities and private equity businesses. 60% equity 20% niche 20% alternative and private equity fund. USD based and traded on the JSE.

We Get Mail

• Several people asking
  • Am I buying Lonmin?
• Several people asking
  • Am I buying MTN?
• Manro (via twitter)
  • What price will SA investors get on JSE for SABMiller (JSE code: SAB) after the £44 offer from AB Inbev? How much of that is cash? Do I hold or sell?

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares

• MTN (JSE code: MTN) really is making a mess of a bad situation and I have sold my holding as I can no longer trust management.
• Capitec (JSE code: CPI) has boomed through R600. Nothing can hold this stock back.

We Get Mail

• Arin
  • My question relates to the previous podcast when you mention that you will not be selling your Calgro M3 shares and you say that they are “fairly valued.” You have also mentioned a few podcasts ago that when discovery goes into the 120’s, you buy them. So now as I write this, discovery is around R147. What can I use, or how can I work out whether a stock is “fairly valued” and perhaps you can use Discovery in you example.
    How to find a share to buy - http://s3.amazonaws.com/OST/StandardOST_Finding_that_perfect_stock.wmv
  • How to determine a price to pay http://s3.amazonaws.com/OST/StandardOST_What_Price_to_pay_Jul2015.wmv
• Robert
  • My understanding is that SARS will distinguish between amounts invested, on the one hand, and PROFITS MADE as a result of the deposits. Can I therefore withdraw my PROFIT at will, without lowering my lifetime cap? Can I replace my withdrawn profit in the next tax year? If the distinction between PROFIT and deposits are not made, and the withdrawal of ANY amount affects the lifetime limit, then TFSA accounts are only beneficial when the lifetime limit is reached and a single bulk withdrawal is made.
• Marcus
  • I have bought some shares of a certain company,the fund has grown and i have made a profit. Please advise if its wise to cash out the profit and leave the original investment intact? Do you think it is wise to re-invest the gain on the same stock again once the price goes lower again?
• July
  • I wish to invest in shares and would like get more information in this regard.i wish to contribute a thousand rand monthly.
• Robert
  • Should we as part of our budget keep hard cash at home in a safe? If so how much? If one kept say, R 20 000 in a safe, or any significant amount, one would lose money not invested. In this age of debit cards surely that amount of money is better off in a Capitec savings account earning at least 4,50 percent interest. A family member seriously suggested cash in safe in case of a "run on the banks".

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares

• Balwin (JSE code: BWN) listing has been modest very modest as the stock trades around 1020c after listing at 988c and the first trade at 1100c.
• Lonmin (JSE code: LON) announces a massive rights issue to deal with their debt maturing in the second quarter of 2016. Initially a massive spike (short squeeze) before it settled down.
• Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR) were not bad. But top line growth did not translate into bottom line growth as margins got squeezed.

Patrick Barker - Wealth Tap
We chatting current state of the markets and how to position a long-term portfolio in this market.

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares

• Sygnia (JSE code: SYG), I got 3.85% allocation which was far from thrilling and have sold my holding.
• Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results looking good. Margins still tight with trading margin 1.3% vs. 1.2% and share still expensive but turn around is happening.
• Mediclinic (JSE code: MDC) becoming Al Noor via a reverse take over. They will have 73 hospitals with around 10,200 beds and 35 clinics, and nearly 32,000 employees across Middle east, UK and SA.

Keith McLachlan Small and Mid Cap fund manager at Alpha Wealth
Balwin (JSE code: BWN) are listing on the JSE today as a residential development company. We chat to Keith about his views on the stock and whether he thinks it's worth an investment?

We Get Mail

• Sbu
• I want to keep my SABMiller shares, how do I do that?
• Helen
• My broker says I was silly to buy in a TFSA and should rather buy individual shares as they'll do better. Now I am confused.

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares

• Lots of new listings hitting the JSE. Here's my 5 words on each.
  • Sygnia - have applied and will sell
  • Balwin - also applied and will hold
  • Waco - bad sector, stay far away
  • Trellidor - why owners selling if great?
  • Capital Appreciation - SPACS not my investment style
  • Capital and Regional - prefer property via an ETF
• Platinum stocks are all over the place, Lonmin (JSE Code: LON) has doubled since low of 29 September 2015. Aquarius Platinum (JSE code: AQP) is being bought by Sibanye Gold (JSE code: SGL) and Implats (JSE Code: IMP) has raised their R4billion just below current share price. But sector remains tough. The bounce is in part from very over sold and rumours of more deals.

Craig Gradidge, Investment and Retirement Planning Specialist at Gradidge Mahura Investments
A question from Sharon (below) asked the question, how much to save for retirement? The immediate answer seems easy, the often touted 15%. But is that true? Surely as we're all different we all need different answers? So Craig helps us unpack it all.

We Get Mail

• Sharon
  • How do I calculate how much money I need to invest monthly in order to retire? Also how to optimise the capital growth of one's ETF portfolio? I have been listening to your webinars since 2011. It has been such a help. In 2011 we had 2 bonds to pay off and a car. Since 2014 we are debt free. By learning from your webinars I find you can focus where your money goes ! and make the necessary sacrifices/changes. My problem is that I am so busy squirrelling the money away that I do not set enough fun money aside for my husband and I to do things we could enjoy doing together.
• Robert
  • Satrix Divi+ (JSE code: STXDIV). This ETF selling for under R2.00. My ETF time horizon is long term. The price is so low, I want to buy but think there may be something wrong with this ETF. Would you recommend buying? Is this asking price "normal"?
• George
  • Today I shorted my first ever position based the news that SAB Miller have rejected the AB Inbev offer. When the news about the initial offer broke, there was that sharp increase in the price. So my (fairly inexperienced) expectation was that with this offer falling through, that the share price would drop down to where it was a month or so ago. This however has not happened, what is the factor that I have not considered? I am not saying that the JSE is broken. But right now, that's what it feels like.

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares

• Capitec (CPI)* results, as a shareholder I liked them a lot, HEPS +25% on PE os 21x. Loan duration and size down that shows their ability to turn the taps on / off at will. Cost to income edges another 1% higher while they continue to grow clients and deposits.
• Tigerbrands (TBS) CEO steps down. Has not been a happy period for him; Nigeria, Kenya, losing market share at home.
• Glencore (GLN) Goldman Sachs and Investec both issued reports that their debt levels are too high and shareholder equity could erode down to nothing. Right now being a mining company with debt is bad news, hence Implats (IMP) doing a rights issue and Lonmin (LON) looking very ill with large debt burden due in 2016. "Peak prices in gold and silver are four years old". How much longer can this commodity sell off continue? Likely longer than anybody expects.

Jean Pierre Verster - 36One Asset Management

• China and the impact on commodity prices and what of Chinese consumers and Naspers (NPN) and Richemont (CFR). We also chat VW, how to manage this sort of crisis if one was a shareholder, the long term impact on platinum and finally a quick word on Sygnia as an investment.

We Get Mail

• Albert
  • Say AB Inbev buys SAB and de-lists them from the JSE, what happens to my SAB shares in my Satrix Indi ETF? What if they offer AB Inbev shares for SAB shares and I want to swap them for AB Inbev shares? This seems to be a downside to ETFs/Unit Trusts that I have not experienced until now. Same with rights offers, etc, on shares in ETF indexes. Please advise.

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon shares

• MPC no change on rates, seems increases will be very gradual. Maybe only 1 or 2 increases in 2016?
• Taste (TAS) hit 525c on the back of the Starbucks announcement. It now down at 400c, what's happening? Buy on rumour, sell on fact.
• What to do with your SABMiller (SAB) shares? I would take the money and run.
• How many shares should one have in a portfolio?

We Get Mail

• Chat forum
  • My Aveng (AEG) position is off 71%, what should I do? Buy more, hold or sell?
• Tariq
  • When trading the Alsi, what time frame is the best when looking at the charts? is the 1 minute chart just noise? In your experience, which indicator has produced the best results for the Alsi?

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Thoughts from Simon

• Mark Douglas has passed away, sad day for traders and perhaps an important reminder that there's more to life than just trading and markets?
• Mr Price (MPC) has been sluggish ever since that nasty trading update, seems maybe it coming alive again?
• Truworths maybe going into the shoe business in the UK. Tough market, not an exciting acquisition.
• SABMiller, finally Anheuser-Busch InBev has arrived. Maybe. 

Keith McLachlan Small and Mid Cap fund manager at Alpha Wealth

We chat the soon to be listed Sygnia, ARB valuation, Santova (SNV) cautionary and the general state of the Mid and Small cap indices.

We Get Mail

• Christo
  • In your podcast two weeks ago you discussed the Proptrax SAPY and the Proptrax Ten. In it you discussed how you prefer the Ten over the SAPY because GrowthPoint is too heavily weighted in the SAPY while in the Ten all companies are equally weighted and you like equal weightings. So my question is why? I can understand how it is bad when one company is too heavily weighted compared to others but surely there is a case to be made for some companies to be weighted a little more heavily than others? Especially if you want to track the index more closely?

Thoughts from Simon

• Sibanye (SGL) buying Anglo Platinum (AMS) unwanted mines for R4.5bn. This is R1.5bn up front and a further minimum payment of R3bn based on free cash flow generated. Good for AMS but for SGL we'll see. Can Neal Froneman (CEO of SGL) make profits where others couldn't? Certainly that is his reputation but this is not going to be easy. Also SGL shareholders now have a gold/platinum company when they initially bought a gold mining company, will that matter to shareholders?
• Sasfin (SFN), more great results form them and they're trading on a Price to Book (P/B) of around 1.5x which for them is reasonable.
• Santova (SNV) have issued a cautionary, no idea what it is about but I would think it is about an off shore deal rather than local. Management have been commenting that off shore if their future and they've recently surpassed half their profits coming from off shore (Hong Kong, Europe, Australia and UK).

Q&A with Warren Peacock from TheTradersPlace.co.za

• Thirty minutes of Q&A with Warren as he answers questions on trading, specifically;
• What to trade?
• What time frames to use? 
• The two different types of volatility.
• Managing trade and portfolio risk and more.

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Thoughts from Simon

• Markets still wild, I still not concerned. Not because I saying it not going down, but because I love my portfolio. Check out this video we did last week on managing your portfolio in turbulent markets.
• MrPrice (MPC) has spooked the market sending the stock down 13% n the day. The update was that horrid but when you're a high flying stock you have to do better.
• Mr price is one of the stocks in our Momentum portfolio that we just updated. You can find all the details and stats (from inception) here.

Steven Nathan Founder, Chief Executive 10x Investment

With the new Tax Free Savings Accounts (TFSA) there a lot of talk about whee a Retirement Annuity (RA) fits in. So we chat to an expert about RAs, costs and performance. While we're just talking RA's a bunch a really solid investing gems get dropped into the conversation, a must listen interview.

We Get Mail

• Brilliant
  • Say you have reached the lifetime cap of R500 000 through contributions, what would happen to the interest gained that comes with the account? Will SARS continue to tax at 40% penalty rate? Thank you.
• Tariq
  • When trading the Alsi futures, what time frame is the best when looking at the charts? is the 1 minute chart just noise? 2. In your experience, which indicator has produced the best results for the Alsi futures?

Subscriber to our feed here or sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live or subscribe in iTunes.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Thoughts from Simon

• Wild markets, make sure you're have a SWAN portfolio (Sleep Well At Night)
• Week lazy system has moved 100% into cash for the first time since the 2008/9 crisis.

Johann Erasmus Head of Global Structuring Standard Bank Group

Chatting about their commodity Exchange Trades Funds (ETFs) and Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs) as well as the African ETN (SBAEI) and African Commodity ETN (SBAFCI).

Mia Kruger Director & Fund Management Kruger International Asset & Wealth Management

How to manage these markets and what to do as an investor. We also chat health stocks Aspen / Mediclinic / Discovery and she says stay away from single commodity companies.

We Get Mail

• Heleen
  • How safe is it to invest in the ETFSA tax free ETF savings account as they administer it through Computershare and not through ETFSA. I don't know anything about Computershare?
• Linda
  • Markets are crazy and I am worried about my investments, should I sell and wait for things to stabilise?

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Viv Govender Senior analyst Lehumo Capital

Concerns about China make Kumba Iron Ore (KIO) the stock Viv dislikes while Europe is looking better after another Greek crisis being resolved. To this end Stienhoff (SHF) is the stock Viv does like.

Warren Ingram Executive Director, Galileo Capital

We chat differences between Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's) and Unit Trusts and also Tax Free Investing vs. Retirement Annuity.

We Get Mail

• Leroma
  • How would I be able to invest in a Vanguard ETF, say Vanguard Telecommunication Services ETF (VOX) from South Africa?
• Cheryl
  • I am thinking of buying some Brait preferences instead of adding to the Braits in my portfolio. Would this be a good idea or should I rather just add to normal Brait position on a pull back.

Subscriber to our feed here or sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live or subscribe in iTunes.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.