Day 28 of lockdown.
Overnight WTI Oil (West Texas Intermediate) traded at a negative $40. Yip -$40, traders were paying you to take their oil off their hands.
Totally wild and now everybody wants to be an oil trader.
But some caution before you jump in.
— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) April 21, 2020
R500billion announced by the president on Tuesday evening. We await details from the finance minister, but some highlights.
10% of GDP and some 25% of the February budget total spend.
But it not all real money, some of it is soft loans, others tax relief in delayed payments.
The biggie is the increase of social grants, child grants ultimately an extra R500 a month and all others +R250 while a new unemployed grant at R350. This is to run till end October, in theory - but we'll still be in the midst of a COVID-19 pandemic then, so it will have to be extended.
Basically we have implemented a basic income grant (BIG) and it will be impossible to take that away any time. How do you say to poor hungry people, no more? Even when the pandemic has passed? Simple you can't and you don't.
For those who think a BIG is communist or evil, go check the research. There is lots starting from the 1970s in the USA and Canada, they work and they are cost effective. How do you help a poor person? Give them money. How do you help a homeless person? Give them a home. Surely there is nothing anti-capitalist about caring about the deeply less fortunate and having a little less of our luxurious lifestyles to help them? And the concerns that they will 'waste or drink' the money is simple not true. Every research shows the incidence of waste is actually lower in groups receiving state aid. As for the theory that women get pregnant in order to receive the child grant, again research has disproved that every single time. There is zero evidence to support that theory.
Lastly on social grants, we have a world class system that is also one of the largest in the world and it works. Further theft is pretty much impossible as the recipient knows what they due and if it not there, hell to pay. Now sure as we saw with Cash Paymaster Services, charges and 'extras' can get messy. But not the actual hard process.
It won't be enough, we'll have to do many more. Likely this will take us into the third quarter at best (note the extra grants end in October and COVID-19 is expected to peak around September for South Africa). But eventually we'll need well in excess of R1trillion, I think maybe some R2trillion to take us into the end of 2021.
How do we pay for the R500billion? Well as per above, majority of this is not real money. But short answer is we borrow and print money, especially for the next rounds we'll have to do later in the year. US$4billion is available for South Africa from the IMF (via the rapid financing instrument, here are the T&Cs of those loans) with pretty much no strings attached, that's almost R100billion. Is that all a risk to the currency and inflation, indeed it is.
But firstly if all countries are doing the same, we're all in the same boat and it becomes moot?
Also understand inflation, it means every Rand a person has is worth a little less in terms of what it can buy. Now the rich have the most Rands so end up paying the most, and why not pay up a little to help save the country? Certainly I happy with that as one of the rich.
The president also promised 'structural reforms' and 'radical economic transformation' which is trying to work both sides of the fence. We'll see which side he really ends up on in the end, but don't forget Minister Mboweni, he not going quietly into any night. He did speak a bit on essentially a new way of doing things, on that he's right.
Post COVID-19 the world will be a different place and we as individuals need to give serious thought as to how we want this new world to look. Then we need to start making it happen otherwise before we know it, we'll all be back to the same old same old.
A concern is about the actual process and fears of looting of the monies. Not unfounded considering our recent past. But thoughts on this.
One questions is does this 10% of GDP offset the expected 10% or so drop in GDP? The answer is no, it means maybe we only drop by the expected 6%-10%, not more.
As a last aside, the president said that the 2% repo rate cut adds R80billion into the economy in lower debt repayments. This is massive and helps middle to upper LSMs with their prime linked debt. Unsecured debt of the lower LSMs is not linked to prime, rather it regulated by the usury act, but that's why the increased social grants.
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