Can South Africa do +3% GDP next year? (#595)

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SA GDP Growth Prospects

• IMF's projection: 0.9% GDP for South Africa this year.
• Potential factors for growth next year:
• Reduced load shedding could add 1% to GDP.
• Two-pot system introduction, expected to inject around 40 billion rand into the economy.
• Potential rate cuts: half a percent by the end of the year, possibly 1% by mid-next year.
• Inflation targeting at 4.5%.
• Optimistic outlook with a 60-70% probability of achieving 3% GDP in 2025.

South Africa GDP

Delistings and Market Movements

• Bell and Sasfin delisting announcements.
• Other potential delisting candidates in the small-cap space.
• Importance of constructing a portfolio that can benefit from economic growth and potential takeouts.

Bell weekly chart

Pick n Pay Rights Issue

• Explanation of the rights issue and its implications.
• Instructions for shareholders on handling nil paid letters.
• Simon's perspective on waiting for dust to settle before considering Pick n Pay shares.

Today is the last day to trade before Pick n Pay rights issue kicks in.

° If you hold at close tonight you will receive 51.11 rights per 100 PIK shares, code will be PIKN
° You can sell then in market
° Or pay 1596c per each to get a new PIK share
° HAVE to do so by 30 July

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) July 16, 2024

 

Property Stocks and Income ETFs

• Analysis of South African property stocks and their recent performance.
• Attractive yields in local and international income ETFs.
• Recommendation to explore defensive income stocks and ETFs for potential investments.
• Find local ETFs here.

Interest Rate Outlook

• MPC and FOMC meetings' impact on interest rates.
• Simon's forecast on rate cuts in South Africa and the US.

Simon Brown

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* I hold ungeared positions.