Education Stocks: Winners and Losers

• Stadio: Strong performance with double-digit growth and 50,000+ learners. Benefiting from a shortage of university spaces and the struggles at UNISA. Potential for further growth through distance learning and university status.
• ADvTech*: Long-term holding with solid but not as aggressive growth. Strong presence in tertiary education and schools. Expansion into East Africa showing promise.
• Curro: Disappointing results with flat learner numbers and write-downs on buildings. Struggles may be due to internal issues or broader economic pressures on lower-income consumers.

Commodity Movers: Copper & Rhodium

• Copper: Near all-time highs due to demand from EVs, data centers, and energy transition. Companies like BHP*, Anglo, and Rio ramping up production. Simon is playing the copper trade through BHP Group.

Copper | Weekly | 25 March 2025

• Rhodium: Seeing a price recovery after a prolonged downturn. Benefiting PGM miners, though still far from peak levels.
• Platinum & Palladium: Relatively stable within established price ranges.

BYD's Breakthrough in Battery Tech

• BYD claims a five-minute charge for 400 km range, setting a new benchmark for EVs.
• Outpacing Tesla and other competitors in rapid-charging efficiency.
• Dominating the affordable EV space with sub-$10,000 models.
• Tesla’s Market Share Decline in Europe
• Tesla’s share of the European BEV market dropped from 21% to 9.6%.
• Competitive pricing from BYD and lack of Tesla model updates.
• CEO Elon Musk’s political involvement potentially affecting brand perception.

Remgro: Growing Discount to NAV

• Reported net asset value (NAV) of R276.89, but share price only R155.
• The discount to NAV is reaching extreme levels.
• Historically, Remgro traded at a much smaller discount, raising questions about potential revaluation.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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00:00 Market Overview and Education Stocks
06:51 Commodities: Copper and Rhodium Insights
13:34 Electric Vehicle Market Dynamics
18:02 Remgro's Financial Performance and Valuation Insights

Market Overview:

• Top 40 Index: Hit an all-time high of 82,378, currently at 81,800. SA markets remain strong despite a US market selloff.

• Top40 | Weekly | 18 March 2025
• Gold: Broke $3,000 for the first time last week, currently around $3,030. Continues to rise amid geopolitical uncertainties.

• Gold | Weekly | 19 March 2025
• Rand: Trading at 18.07, briefly touching 18.0088 earlier. Dollar weakness driving strength, with a target level of 17.80.

Key Market Insights:

• Gold as a Portfolio Hedge:
  • Maintains a 6-7% weighting in portfolio.
  • Recent purchase at $2,865 via GLD ETF in New York.
  • Potential buy zones: $2,800 and $2,850.
• Dollar Index Trends:
  • Initially targeted 104, broke through to 101.
  • Could drive the Rand towards 17.80.

Global Uncertainty & Market Reactions:

• European tariffs and Ukraine war concerns.
• Trump-Putin meeting adds to geopolitical tensions.
• Elevated US market valuations suggest exploring Europe ETFs.

Investment Strategies:

• AI Participation Note by Standard Bank:
• Tracks the S&P Kensho AI Index.
• Two options:
  • 100% Capital Protection - Minimum investment of R25,000, capital secured, potential upside.
  • Capital at Risk with 140% Participation Rate - Higher returns if index rises, but losses if it drops more than 40%.
• Open for investment until March 28, 2025.

Renergen* Helium Production Milestone:

• Finally delivered helium after years of delays.
• Stock surged from R3 to R9.30, but challenges remain.
• Phase 2 expansion and NASDAQ listing pending.
• Retail investors remain cautious due to past delays.

Macroeconomic Outlook:

• Atlanta Fed GDP Now Forecast:
• Predicts Q1 GDP contraction of -2.1%.
• Economic slowdown concerns intensifying.

Upcoming Rate Decisions:

• US Fed (FOMC): Unlikely to cut rates.
• SA Reserve Bank (MPC): Potential space for a rate cut.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

00:00 Market Overview and Key Movements
05:47 Gold and Rand Dynamics
12:08 Investment Opportunities in AI
17:43 Renigen's Helium Production and Challenges
20:06 Budget Insights and Economic Outlook

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Forecast

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow predicts a -2.4% GDP contraction for Q1 2025.
• Market uncertainty due to tariffs and economic policy concerns.
• Corporate travel and consumer bookings showing signs of weakness as Delta Airlines downgrades their expectations from mid January.

Market Reactions and Sell-Offs

• Nasdaq and S&P had their worst single-day drops since 2022.
• Major stocks like Nvidia, ASML, and CrowdStrike seeing significant declines.
• Bitcoin at $81,000 amid broader market volatility.

Europe as a Potential Investment Opportunity

• Europe’s economic stimulus: Germany announces a €500B package.
• ETFs to consider: EURO STOXX 50 (SYGEU) vs. MSCI Europe Industrial Sector.
• Potential for growth in industrial and defense sectors.

Euro Stoxx 50 | Weekly | 12 March 2025

Just One Lap Turns 14

• Founded in 2011 to provide online financial education.
• Reflection on the platform’s growth and community support.

South African Budget Review

• Possible VAT increase; lack of innovative fiscal strategies.
• Previous reliance on gold reserves for financial stability.
• Discussion on potential economic impacts.

HomeChoice International Results

• Revenue up 21%, HEPS up 27%, dividend up 17%.
• Expanding into fintech with PayJustNow and FinChoice.
• Liquidity concerns despite strong financial performance.

Two-Pot Retirement Withdrawals - Where Did the Money Go?

• Initial claims suggested debt repayment, but data suggests spending.
• Increased vehicle sales, hospitality sector growth (e.g., Spur, Sun International).
• Implications for long-term financial planning.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

00:00 Economic Outlook: Recession Predictions and Market Reactions
09:07 Investing in Europe: Opportunities and ETFs
12:07 Celebrating 14 Years of Just One Lap
13:20 Budget Analysis: VAT Increase and Economic Innovation
15:09 Home Choice International: Business Performance and Liquidity Challenges
18:19 Consumer Spending Trends: Where Did the Money Go?