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Curro AGM; titbit. At 53% current capacity utilisation COH made 49cps in FY17. With NO NEW SPEND CEO says if it was at 90% utilisation FY17 earnings would have been 201cps showing how growing into latent built capacity can now power Curro's earnings growth ahead
— Small Talk Daily (@SmallTalkDaily) June 4, 2018
In a recent Fat Wallet podcast Kristia commented again how her investments have done pretty much nothing over the last few years.
Now there is only one reason we buy any share, ETF or even derivative - too make money. But what happens if we don't make money or worse the price falls and we're losing money.
Now it depends in part what we bought. A derivative trader will stop out and indidiual share buyer may hold as they consider it quality and in time it will start moving while an ETF should in theory not worry about the short term and just continue holding. That's the theory.
But we get a phenomenon called stake bulls, especially with individual shares.
Lets take Aspen (JSE code: APN) as an example. It hit a price of almost R450 in January 2015 after trading at R100 for the first time just three years earlier and 1000c was hit for the first time in 2003. If you missed the initial run from 2003 you'd have felt aggrieved at missing out and you may have jumped in at R100. But many would have said no they'll wait for the pull back, a pull back that never really happened. Then after a price of almost R450 there is a serious pull back to almost R250 and many jumped in during that pull back. That was followed by another rally but only to R350 and now we're back at R250.
So having watched Aspen be one of the best stocks on the JSE you're now holding it and your price is under water. You're not happy and frankly you want shot of the share - but ideally at as small a loss as possible - you're a stale bull.
So now every time it rallies the stale bulls are ready to sell essentially capping the price.
We see this with a number of local shares and to a lesser degree with ETFs (lesser here as we're too small to really influence an entire index).
So what do we do?
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First off understand the difference between a stock broker and an FSP. The former is an exchange member and gets protection and regulations from the exchange. An FSP is regulated by the FSCA (formerly the FSB) interview with Charles Savage on how this works.
It is very important that they are registered with a regulatory body. Even an offshore regulatory body is fine, but only if it is in a country in which you trust the laws. Avoid fly-by-nights registered in some second rate dodge country.
Also understand potential fees.
Then what services do you want from your broker (using broker as generic term)?
Do your research. Google the broker for reviews, check online forums and social media for complaints or praise. Ask others who they use and what they like / dislike about the broker. Take a trail to check out the user interface (if offered).
And before you all ask me, I use Standard OST and have done for almost 15 years. Not the cheapest but they meet all my needs.
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JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
I have spoken often before about how one of the huge benefits of investing is that a diversified portfolio is asymmetrical. You may have held some horrid share and lost 100% of its value. But 100% is the most you can lose and your winners can exceed 100%. In fact a true long-term portfolio will most definitely have many +100% winners so if you do get caught in a 100% loser - you're fine. The important point is that you need to be diverse and have more than one share and ideally a core of ETFs surrounded by a selection of 10-12 quality shares.
Now as a trader of leveraged products such as FX, CFDs or futures your potential loss in any trade can exceed 100%. The warning that loses can exceed your deposits is absolutely true and as such trading is symmetrical. Your winners can be offset by losers and you can end up going nowhere, or truthfully you end up losing money.
But a trading portfolio can be asymmetrical, if we have a strict stop loss we adhere to every time. EVERY time. Couple that with the 2% risk rule (never lose more than 2% of your capital in any one trade) and bingo - you have asymmetry in your trading portfolio as well.
This is the whole point of trading. We'll have a random dispersement of small losers and winners. A lot of break even trades with the occasional large winner but also the occasional large loser. Without the silent killers of; spread, slippage and costs, that portfolio would go sideways. All we have to do is ensure we NEVER have a large loser and boom, we're making money.
This points to the tree critical aspects of trading. Position size (2% rule), stop loss and capital.
Capital is important because if you have only a few thousand rands to trade with you cannot do proper position size hence ensuring you'll go broke.
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Would you buy that share today if you didn't already own it?
If not, why not?
I'm talking about those dog shares again because we all have them. This week I pose a simple question to solve the problem.
Sometimes tech fails. This was one of those weeks, so a short show.
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Fear of missing out. Man this used to kill me when I started out in markets. It's a true killer as it makes us do irrational things. Pause for a moment, we have say 400 stocks listed on the JSE, your odds of picking the top performer over the next ten years is 0.25%. You're pretty much guaranteed to miss out. Globally 100,000 stocks so 0.001% chance.
Thing is hype and higher prices make us scared. Scared we picked the wrong stock. Scared we're missing out of becoming fabulously wealthy. We need the courage of our convictions and perhaps more importantly the courage to be wrong, often.
FOMO will make us do stupid things. We'll jump in with no real research. We'll jump in with no exit plan. We'll jump in at far to rich valuations.
Forgot about the flyers and focus on your plan. What are you investing for and how long is your investment horizon. Find quality stocks at good prices that meet your requirements. And if you find yourself suffering from FOMO remove yourself from the market (like over a weekend or on a internet free holiday) do solid research on the stock. Find the nay sayers and see what the counter argument is and try construct a real evidence based plan and a price you think is a fair one to pay.
There is another angle of FOMO I want to touch on as well. When you're in the stock (or crypto or whatever) and now feel you need to convince everybody else that they're missing out. Sure they may be, but truthfully they may have done their own research and decided it is not for them and you could both be right (different strokes for different folks). Not everything is for everybody. But more importantly is that assets need people to be missing out, that's how they go higher. For example Buffett was very late to Apple (Nasdaq code: AAPL) only building a stake in the last 18 months, a stake that is now over 5% of the company. If he'd bought back in say 2008 or 1998 he would not have been a large buyer over the last 18 months and make no mistake, his large buying, and the news of his stake, has sent the price higher. You need late comers. If everybody is in on day one then who pushes the price higher on day two?
Taking it a step further, the market needs disagreement otherwise nothing would happen. So don't hate on people who don't love your investments. See them as potential future price drivers.
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JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Knowledge is power but only if you share it.
Every year since 2007 I have been a speaker at the annual JSE Schools challenge prize giving in October and a key theme has always been - the responsibility of knowledge. This talk is aimed at school kids but it occurred to me that actually this part of the speech is actually relevant to everybody. Actually all the parts are but they're another podcast for another time.
As investors or traders or even if only a novice our knowledge on markets and investing is way more than the vast majority of people and that puts a responsibility on us - we need to share this knowledge.
This is less about hot tips, in fact leave the hot tips out of the equation. it is more about helping other people understand the market, ETFs and how it really can create wealth with no rocket science required.
Remember the average South African knows nothing about the market and is generally fearful of it and we can help change that and help create smarter and ultimately richer South Africans.
Tell them about tax-free. About ETFs, about fees killing returns. Tell them.
And even if you think you have no knowledge to share as you're still learning - wrong. You have way more than the average person. So get talking.
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The local auditing profession is having a tough time of it with the Auditor General (Thembekile Makwetu) commenting on The Money Show with Bruce Whitfield he said that that the professions reputation was "in the gutter".
I wanted to understand what we as investor really can expect from an auditor? Are they to blame for Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) and other recent collapses or is that beyond their scope?
Keith McLachlan, fund manager at Alpha Wealth, studied as an auditor and is now a fund manager so decided to have a short chat with him to get some perspective. The short chat ended up being a long chat and I suspect we missed a number of angles but one thing did stand out for me, the word "material".
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I heard this on a podcast I listen to, or maybe somebody tweeted it.
Hugely important. Those commenting on price action (myself included) are always doing so after the fact and most times trying to find a narrative that fits the price move. As humans we believe in order and we have an expectation that things happen for a reason. Now sure prices move for a reason, but there is every chance we're not privy to the reason. The short answer is that prices go up when there are more buyers than sellers, anything beyond that is trying to fit a narrative to a move.
As a trader we frankly don't care why they move. We simple wait for our entry and obey our stops.
As an investor price only matters when we're buying as this is all we control. Other than that it is results that matter.
So the narrative around price is fun, but it is not very useful.
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JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Homechoice (JSE code: HIL) keeps on putting out great results and cash generation but has almost zero liquidity (30 trades since 6 March and currently no offers to sell on market with last trade at 4700c and buyers at 1226c! This makes it uninvestable in my world as we'd essentially be buying into a quasi private equity arrangement as exiting would be almost (absolutely) impossible. But they did announce in the latest results they plan to improve liquidity and I'll keep an eye on this.
In the excitement of finding a great share we'll often over look the liquidity issue but I remember getting very badly caught in an illiquid stock way back in the day and while I could have held on I panicked and exited at a nasty loss.
Liquidity is not just the spread, which is a cost. But also the amount of volume being traded and we also have to remember that liquidity can disappear very quickly.
So two things to look for.
For traders liquidity even more important an I want spreads less than 1% and value traded 100x my trade size. This is because I want to have no impact when buying or selling (or as small as possible because there is never no impact) and I need the liquidity for very quick and efficient exits.
Last important point. Liquidity in terms of volume is not an issue for ETFs as the market maker ensures that they will have a bid and offer either side of fair value at all times. So while the ETF may not be trading it has the capacity to trade in larger volumes if required.
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JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
If you secretly hate us but haven’t been able to find a different source of financial information, I have some great news! I found a Freakonomics Radio episode that summed up exactly the principles we champion on this show.
In this episode, Simon and I take the financial literacy survey. It’s only three questions, but understanding their answers will enable you to make great financial decisions. If this sounds vaguely familiar, you might be thinking of this podcast we did last year.
Here are the questions:
Win of the week: Rob has been coming to our events for ages. He has some ETF investments, but he’s been wanting to trade since the day I met him. This week, he sent this email:
Yes I have done my first trade and bought my first bunch of shares (7 shares in total - some bits and bobs) (as oppose to ETFs)
I am not sure how I am supposed to feel!
Its bit like sex for the first time - did not know what to expect!
Frederick
My world has been turned upside down! I started listening to your podcast a week or so ago, and fok... my google is broken!! From googling sport all day I now spend endless nights and have sleepless nights on where to put my money and avoid tax as much as possible!
I use to think money is money and my RA is perfect and that life is sorted! I was wrong!
I have an RA (diversified wealth builder) with Sanlam. Any thoughts here please? My FEES (to my knowledge) is 0.65%.
It says “management fee at benchmark %”.
I put some money in monthly with a 10% annual increase. By retirement I should be paid out R11,5m.
Let’s say you live another lifetime after your working life, how much will you need? It’s possible to retire at 60 and live to 100.
https://justonelap.com/podcast-much-money-need/
Frank is trading Simon's Lazy system and wants to know if he can park his money somewhere while he waits for entries. He’s not earning interest on the money that he’s allocated for this trade.
Shamona wants to know if timeshare is worth it.
What are the pros and cons? What should I look out for when buying?
Entries to win Manage Your Money Like a Fucking Grownup. We want you to share the financial fact that blew your mind. We’ll be running this competition for one more week.
I asked author Sam Beckbessinger hers and she said on R10k per month, you’ll earn R19m in your working life. Mine is that a low cost of living is basically the answer to all your problems.
Lesigisha wrote back after we sent him a shout-out last week.
Thank you so much for the great affirmation I received from the submission of my email, it really really went a long way in validating what I’m doing.
It’s hard to start on this journey, but after doing it for a while one does sometimes get despondent and wonder if this is worth it. Your affirmation has helped reinvigorate me and I go back to it every time someone says they’re waiting until they have a bigger shoe size before they can start making “real money decisions”.
Khuliso’s mind-blowing fact is that you don’t need huge amounts of money to invest. As a result of his mail I spent a lot of time thinking about kotas this morning.
The most mind-blowing fact was finding out that if I can afford to buy a kota (R23.00) or street wise 2 I can afford to invest in the JSE and create wealth.
Even though it's little money, over the long term it makes a difference. In my case the problem was lack of information rather than a lack of money to invest.
I am now very conscious about my spending habits. Whenever I buy takeaways in the back of my mind I keep on thinking of ETFs that I could be buying. When I look back, I see missed opportunities where I could have invested and build wealth.
Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) announces that their property portfolio is only worth half what they thought. Boom there goes another R16billion. I cautioned when this story broke that bad news would be dripping out for a while, and so it continues with the immediate question being hat about their other property assets?
Grand Parade (JSE code: GPL) CEO has quit exiting immediately. Ms. Tasneem Karriem joined the company in 2015 and was made CEO last June. This is not good news and the stock is off 4% and trading at 2010 levels.
Nampak (JSE code: NPK) is selling their glass business after spending R938m to buy the 50% of the glass business it did not own. It has also spent billions on capital expenditure and now we wait to see what price it sells for. But an absolute disaster for the company and the share is back at 2010 levels.
NetCare (JSE code: NTC) is to exiting its UK operations after twelve years of absolute disaster and the share is trading at 2010 levels.
Ascendis Health (JSE code: ASC) is trading below its 2013 listing price and just off all-time lows at 938c.
You spot the problem?
Middling quality companies expanding and the wheels come off. Now sure there are likely many examples of other companies that did not lose their wheels. But as investors we have to make sure we own the right ones. It is also worth noting that as a small investor we can place a core of ETFs (+50%) for diversification and then we need only own 10-12 individual stocks in the 'til death do us part' portfolio. This gives us a huge edge on fund managers who typically need to own 30-50 stocks. We can focus like a laser on quality and spend most of our time finding reasons NOT to invest in a stock.
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JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
The latest SPIVA for SA is out and it is bleak reading for active managers in South Africa. Around 75% are beaten by the benchmark over one, three and five years.
This means you have a 1 in 4 chance of picking an out preforming fund - very bleak odds.
So here's the question, and it is a real question. How does one pick the winning manager going forward? There most definitely will be those who out preform, some even consistently, but how do we spot them in advance? They themselves will tell you that past performance is no guarantee of future performance, and this is 100% true for a bunch of reasons.
I also know a number of people who chart unit trusts with fairly good success. Either just normal technical analysis or relative performance. Of course tax is an issue here.
If you have a method for picking winning funds let us know.
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JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
300 shows, I haven't been making a fuss because it just feels old, very old. Add to that almost three years as a live radio show on Classic FM, starting from 8 July 2008. It's almost ten years of a weekly (albeit changing) show. We started life focusing outside the Top40 as the other shows seldom ever did anything in the small and mid cap space - then everybody did. So we have evolved over time. The question is where to next? Another ten years (truthfully that scares me). Send me your ideas on what we should or should not be doing.
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When a share is hit by scandal it can take ages to recovery as investors shy away from the stock.
Some like Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) will never recover due to the seemingly rampant fraud hat happened. Others like EOH may but will stay under 'caution' for a while as will the Resilient (JSE code: RES) stable of stocks. Others such as Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) will also struggle for a while but should shrug it off in time.
Tiger Brands (JSE code: TBS) has held up fairly well since the Listeriosis story broke on the weekend and is only back to November levels. But it could get real bad with almost 200 dead people, but markets seem to not be so concerned with these sort of issues. I remember Pioneer (JSE code: PFG) righting the bread fixing claims, eventually paying a R1billion fine and the share rocketed. In part it is the known vs. unknown. PFG struggled until the fine was agreed on, and TBS could well see its share price struggle until some sort of finality is reached - and that cold be years.
The concern is perception and some potential investors will stay away while existing holders may head for the hills and this means less buyers for the stock so less/slower upside.
Your strategy needs to ask if the scandal is terminal, long-term or merely a passing fad? Then remember if it is time to panic, panic quick.
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JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Borrowing money to increase your portfolio is something most investors ponder at some point, but two questions come up. How and what are the risks? The theory is easy, over the long-term equity markets do better than the cost of borrowing, but there is more to leverage then just that. So here are some options, with the risks involved.
Personally I have leveraged my portfolio once. In 2008 I maxed out my bond to add to my portfolio. It worked and I slept well enough but I have no plans to do so again.
On page 10 of his latest annual letter Warren Buffett writes "This table offers the strongest argument I can muster against ever using borrowed money to own stocks. There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period. Even if your borrowings are small and your positions aren’t immediately threatened by the plunging market, your mind may well become rattled by scary headlines and breathless commentary. And an unsettled mind will not make good decisions."
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JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Firstly I think Cyril Ramaphosa may have played it real smart by letting Malusi Gigaba deliver the budget. He can now spend the next year claiming it was not his budget but a Zuma legacy budget.
Overall not the train smash expected but still lots of tax increases with R36billion of extra tax. Lots of cuts to spending, R86billion over three years and which has to actually happen.
GDP growth 1.5% in 2018 and rising to 2.1% in 2020. I hope they are very wrong on this.
No changes to;
No Nuclear.
Retirement funds will be allowed to invest up to 40% outside of SA - 30% "offshore" and another 10% elsewhere in Africa.
JSE added 1.25% during the speech, USDZAR 8c and government bonds back at 8%, bond levels last seen three years ago.
For our investments. Consumers being taxed, no surprise. But with inflation dropping leading to prime rate likely heading lower I still like the SA Inc. investment thesis.
Overall - a good balancing act albeit still a tough budget. But could have been much worse and I think Moodys will not downgrade us on the back of it.
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A -60% return requires a +150% to beak even. A -80% return requires +400% to break even. Think about that. Saving that last 20% on the downside is worth a 250% smaller return on the upside.
— Ari Paul (@AriDavidPaul) February 13, 2018
Trading is really probability and all we have to do as traders is enter on time and then ensure no large losses. If we avoid the large losses those small profits and losses will cancel each other out and the occasional large winner will make all the profits. But we have to cut the large losers or else we go bust.
So why do we hang onto our losers?
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Introduced in 2009 this enables a tax payer to invest into a startup (via the S12J fund, Section 12J Venture Capital Companies (VCC)) and claim it as a deduction on their tax return effectively reducing ones income by the amount invested. An important point is that the investment has to be held for 5 years or income becomes taxable.
In theory nice but with some buts;
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I think we're missing a point with this latest Viceroy report on Capitec. Sure we're proud of the business and if you're a shareholder you've made amazing returns. But we seem to be circling the wagons and shooting the messenger rather then actually discussing the merits of the report.
Two important thoughts to ponder.
What if Viceroy had published their Steinhoff report before Steinhoff admitted to their fraud, would we have believed them? Simple answer is no and we would have looked stupid when the company admitted the fraud.
A fund manager does their research in a company, decides it's a great sock. They buy it and then they go out into the world promoting the stock - talking it up in the media and notes to clients. How is this different from what Viceroy is doing (aside from Viceroy shorting rather then buying)?
Here are some others who have been asking questions about Capitec.
*I sold half my Capitec shares at R911.00 yesterday.
A last point is that with Capitec exposed as the Viceroy target suddenly the other contenders (Resilient stable, Aspen, etc) are now all forgiven. But hold on, when we were unsure who was next the market sold these stocks off aggressively - this tells us something important. It tells us the market is not confident about these stocks and we should take that warning seriously.
Here's a Periscope video I did just after the news broke.
Here's the Hebalife video.
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JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
This week Simon chats to Chris Rule from CoreShares on their soon to be listed Global Dividend Aristocrats ETF. It uses dividends as a quality metric rather then searching for yield and much like the MSCI World ETFs we have locally it is concentrated in the US at 53% with Europe making up another 22% but it is light on tech.
You can book for the events here.
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JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face" Mike Tyson
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.
Every year the first JSE Direct of the year is our annual predictions show. Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan, Small/Midcap fund manager at Alpha Wealth and Just One Lap founder Simon Brown review their predictions from the previous year and make their top three predictions for 2018.
They then also make a call on the Top40 and ZAR/US$ for the year.
You can find the 2017 edition here.
JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.
JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.