It was a surprise to most economists but thats moot as the economy and consumer is under severe pressure recession or not. Importantly this was for Q1 2017, so before the shuffle and downgrade. I think this is not going to be short and sharp, it's going to hurt as we have little to counter it.
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All the time. We can worry about the Rand and we can worry about valuations, but we'll never get it right. I buy locally listed offshore ETFs every month (buying DBXWD) and move money into USD every six months on schedule.
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Maslow's theory of how we progress and ultimately become Unconscious Competent traders.
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Upcoming events;
We're running a promo with CoreShares this month including an event in Durban next Wednesday 24 May at the Riverside hotel (email info@coreshares.co.za for info or to book).
This week Simon chats to Gareth Stobie about their new website that enables transacting in their ETFs and their three investment disciplines when saving for or already in retirement.
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Simon Shares
Upcoming events;
How to trust your trading system
Time and discipline is the best way to trust. My lazy system is now some 12 years old, so I know to trust it. But how do you get to trust a new system?
I like the approach suggested by Mark Douglas in his book, Trading in the Zone.
Now you have a system with sixty 'trades' and you know if it works and can trust it.
We Get Mail
Andy
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Trading or investing requires capital. As an investor one can start very small with just a couple hundred rand, but a trader requires a lot more in order to properly manage risk. So we look at the different options (CFDs, FX, ALSI and ALMI) and how much is required to start.
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@csavagegt247 @Richards_Karin @Caro1Graham @gary_dyk @EasyEquities Some more comforting news regarding EE's nominee First World Trader Nominees (FTW). Taken from their T&C's. pic.twitter.com/oXSELq2QDZ
— Johann Biermann (@JohannBiermann1) April 25, 2017
How to manage trading different systems? I trade three system with ALSI futures and I manage it by having a primary system that takes precedence over the other two, otherwise I could end up short and long at the same time. Alternatively trade different products (add FX to the mix and trade different crosses). Another option is one trading system but different products or markets.
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Message from a trading friend;
"I think the true art of trading is learning to be completely satisfied with your own objectives. Rather than constantly worrying about what could have been if ..."
Trading is simple. Buy when the chart says buy, sell when it says sell and sit on your hands in-between. But we over think it, we believe in complexity and this hurts us.
I did not go short over the long weekend because, well politicians. I decide that I needed a new rule about 4 day weekends, do not hold over them? In truth I have been trading my ALSI systems all through recent recalls and shuffles and it had one of it's best runs on recent years for March with a very good April thus far. So why the sudden decision to change rules re long weekends? And what about three day weekends, will they in time also be bad? Normal two day weekends and eventually overnight holding?
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Lots of concern abut rising bad debts and how this will impact Capitec.
They identify three risks; market, credit & business. Rescheduling is a risk that concerns many but Capitec defends it in being better business and they have over 200% provisions on arrears and they are well ahead of Basel 3 2019 requirements. Further when they reschedule a loan they increase provisions against non payment. They have been declining more loans and have been tightening credit granting criteria since April 2015 and now 92% of the value of a loan is provided for when three instalments are missed. In short they are obsessive about managing risk. That said tougher economic conditions, credit card and longer term loans do add to risk and they will likely see bad debts increasing. But they are not going to do an African Bank.
Longer term they're earning more from non interest but this will take a long time to become significant against loan profits.
The annual report is due later this month and will be online here.
I had an aggressive R720 buy price, but that was before shuffles and downgrades and with growth likely to be hit post all the noise R620 is my safer buy price.
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Down we go
Standard and Poors downgraded our offshore foreign debt, not ZAR debt. This is about 10% of total SA debt. Technically we're not junk as that requires two agencies to rate us junk. But all said this is bad and expected and our portfolios should have been ready and waiting.
It took countries like Uruguay, Croatia, Ireland etc. on average 7 years to regain their investment grade status after falling to junk! Columbia took 12 years and over the last 19 years, S&P has downgraded 23 countries to junk status, of those only 6 recovered, shortest recovery time was 5 years.
How does it hurt? Debt costs for the country go up, so higher taxes and less government spending. Interest rates higher and rand weaker putting pressure on the middle class. Poor will be hurt with real damage is done to the middle class.
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With the Rand getting all hot and bothered again after a protracted run stronger I thought a quick look at how we can manage our portfolio against a weaker currency. We have the easy things like offshore stocks that are locally listed, offshore earning stocks, locally listed offshore ETFs and the NEWUSD mentioned above. There is also a pure offshore bank or brokerage account or heavily invested into commodity stocks. But the bigger issue is that political squabbles are part and parcel of being a South African investor and Rand weakness is also our future, even if at times we have strength. So we need to build a resilient portfolio that survives these events.
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Started in October 2008 with zero value as the first crypto currency it now trades around US$1,100 and has an ardent fan base. The questions are if it is the future of money? CoinMarketCap lists over 750 crypto currencies with a total market cap of over USD24billion. That said Bitcoin has a market cap of almost US$18billion with Ethereum on a market cap of almost US$4billion (up almost 50% in the last week) leaving very little for the other 750 crypto currencies. But they are very volatile and a commodity rather than a currency, but should we be investing or trading in them?
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@JustOneLap @SimonPB Please also make mention of Buffett's 180 degree flip and new love affair with 'cheap' airlines
— Wes Hellyar (@WesHellyar) March 7, 2017
It is well known that Warren Buffett learnt investing from the father of value investing - Benjamin Graham and many still consider Buffett to be the worlds greatest value investor. But while he may be the worlds greatest investor he is not a value investor having abandoned that strategy way back. If anything he is 'growth at reasonable price' investor. The book Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits by Phil Fisher really explains his current investing methodology.
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The most frequent question Simon gets is about becoming a trader and his first answer is always the same, it will take time. Lots of time. In this weeks podcast he goes into details about the skills needed, capital, tools and more.
Some resource;
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Key highlights and how they'll impact various investments;
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* Simon holds ungeared positions.
In last weeks JSE Power Hour on tax-free investing Simon mentioned trading a tax-free account. This got many excited thinking about derivatives and shares, but no. The restrictions for tax-free accounts remain but Simon has ways we can still trade without gearing and enhance returns (or losses).
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Chatting market fears and opportunities specifically; Hudaco (JSE code: HDC), Naspers (JSE code: NPN), MTN and Invicta (JSE code: IVT).
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A few requests on investment clubs; how to set them up, manage them, regulations etc. So here's my views, ideas and suggestion for getting your own investment club off the ground.
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I'm calling it life style creep when you wake up one morning and my large house is no longer big enough. We're surely doing it wrong? So my lovely wife an I are pushing back, down scaling into a small apartment and getting rid of 95% of our stuff. Pretty much everything except essential furniture, share portfolio (some portfolios are potentially under the hammer) and art. We simple have too much stuff and a simpler life with less stuff is in order. Bigger picture is to become a digital nomad living in AirBNB apartments; watching whales from Stillbaai in August / September and so on. But it starts with less stuff.
Every year the first JSE Direct of the year is our annual predictions show. Marc Ashton, GM at Moneyweb, Keith McLachlan, Small/Midcap fund manager at Alpha Wealth and Just One Lap founder Simon Brown review their predictions from the previous year and make their top three predictions for 2017. They then also make a call on the Top40 and ZAR/US$ for the year.
You can find the 2016 edition here.
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JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.